7. On 25 October 2003, at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Arcadia, California, Mr. Graham Stone, from Rapid City, South Dakota, won a single bet in which he had picked the winner of six successive races! Mr. Stone had never visited a racetrack; racing fans across the nation were stunned. The winning horses, and the odds of each horse winning, as determined just before the race in which it ran, were as follows: Winning Horse Odds 1. Six Perfections 5-1 2. Cajun Beat 3. Islington 4. Action This Day 5. High Chaparral 6. Pleasantly Perfect 22-1 3-1 26-1 5-1 14-1 Mr. Stone's wager cost $8; his payoff was $2,687,661.60. The odds against such good fortune (or handicapping skill?), we might say in casual conversation, are "a million to one." Mr. Stone's payoff was at a rate far below that. Did he deserve a million-to-one payoff? How would you justify your answer?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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7. On 25 October 2003, at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Arcadia, California,
Mr. Graham Stone, from Rapid City, South Dakota, won a single bet
in which he had picked the winner of six successive races! Mr. Stone
had never visited a racetrack; racing fans across the nation were
stunned. The winning horses, and the odds of each horse winning, as
determined just before the race in which it ran, were as follows:
Winning Horse
Ods
1. Six Perfections
5-1
2. Cajun Beat
3. Islington
4. Action This Day
5. High Chaparral
6. Pleasantly Perfect
22–1
3-1
26-1
5-1
14-1
Mr. Stone's wager cost $8; his payoff was $2,687,661.60.
The odds against such good fortune (or handicapping skill?), we
might say in casual conversation, are "a million to one." Mr. Stone's
payoff was at a rate far below that. Did he deserve a million-to-one
payoff? How would you justify your answer?
Transcribed Image Text:7. On 25 October 2003, at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Arcadia, California, Mr. Graham Stone, from Rapid City, South Dakota, won a single bet in which he had picked the winner of six successive races! Mr. Stone had never visited a racetrack; racing fans across the nation were stunned. The winning horses, and the odds of each horse winning, as determined just before the race in which it ran, were as follows: Winning Horse Ods 1. Six Perfections 5-1 2. Cajun Beat 3. Islington 4. Action This Day 5. High Chaparral 6. Pleasantly Perfect 22–1 3-1 26-1 5-1 14-1 Mr. Stone's wager cost $8; his payoff was $2,687,661.60. The odds against such good fortune (or handicapping skill?), we might say in casual conversation, are "a million to one." Mr. Stone's payoff was at a rate far below that. Did he deserve a million-to-one payoff? How would you justify your answer?
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