62. Suppose an investor has the opportunity to buy the following contract, a stock call option, on March 1. Thecontract allows him to buy 100 shares of ABC stock atthe end of March, April, or May at a guaranteed priceof $50 per share. He can exercise this option at mostonce. For example, if he purchases the stock at the endof March, he can’t purchase more in April or May atthe guaranteed price. The current price of the stock is$50. Each month, assume that the stock price eithergoes up by a dollar (with probability 0.55) or goesdown by a dollar (with probability 0.45). If the investorbuys the contract, he is hoping that the stock price willgo up. The reasoning is that if he buys the contract, theprice goes up to $51, and he buys the stock (that is, heexercises his option) for $50, he can then sell the stockfor $51 and make a profit of $1 per share. On the otherhand, if the stock price goes down, he doesn’t haveto exercise his option; he can just throw the contractaway.a. Use a decision tree to find the investor’s optimalstrategy—that is, when he should exercise theoption—assuming that he purchases the contract.b. How much should he be willing to pay for such acontract?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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62. Suppose an investor has the opportunity to buy the following contract, a stock call option, on March 1. Thecontract allows him to buy 100 shares of ABC stock atthe end of March, April, or May at a guaranteed price
of $50 per share. He can exercise this option at mostonce. For example, if he purchases the stock at the endof March, he can’t purchase more in April or May atthe guaranteed price. The current price of the stock is$50. Each month, assume that the stock price eithergoes up by a dollar (with probability 0.55) or goesdown by a dollar (with probability 0.45). If the investorbuys the contract, he is hoping that the stock price will
go up. The reasoning is that if he buys the contract, theprice goes up to $51, and he buys the stock (that is, heexercises his option) for $50, he can then sell the stockfor $51 and make a profit of $1 per share. On the other
hand, if the stock price goes down, he doesn’t haveto exercise his option; he can just throw the contractaway.a. Use a decision tree to find the investor’s optimalstrategy—that is, when he should exercise theoption—assuming that he purchases the contract.b. How much should he be willing to pay for such a
contract?

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