6. Ten marbles labeled 1, 2, ..., 10 are placed in a big jar and then stirred up. Zori, wearing a blindfold, pulls them out of the jar two at a time. Players are allowed to place bets as to whether the sum of the two marbles in a pair is 11. There are C(10, 2) = 45 different pairs and exactly 5 of these pairs sums to eleven. Suppose Zori draws out a pair; the results are observed; then she returns the two balls to the jar and all ten balls are stirred before the next sample is taken. Since the probability that the sum is an "11" is 5/45 = 1/9, then it would be fair to pay one dollar to play the game if the payoff for an "11" is nine dollars. Similarly, the payoff for a wager of one hundred dollars should be nine hundred dollars. Now consider an alternative way to play the game. Now Zori draws out a pair; the results are observed; and the marbles are set aside. Next, she draws another pair from the remaining eight marbles, followed by a pair selected from the remaining six, etc. Finally, the fifth pair is just the pair that remains after the fourth pair has been selected. Now players may be free to wager on the outcome of any or all or just some of the five rounds. Explain why either everyone should or no one should wager on the fifth round. Accordingly, the last round is skipped and all marbles are returned to the jar and we start over again. Also explain why an observant player can make lots of money with a payout ratio of nine to one. Now for a more challenging problem, what is the minimum payout ratio above which a player has a winning strategy?
6. Ten marbles labeled 1, 2, ..., 10 are placed in a big jar and then stirred up. Zori, wearing a blindfold, pulls them out of the jar two at a time. Players are allowed to place bets as to whether the sum of the two marbles in a pair is 11. There are C(10, 2) = 45 different pairs and exactly 5 of these pairs sums to eleven. Suppose Zori draws out a pair; the results are observed; then she returns the two balls to the jar and all ten balls are stirred before the next sample is taken. Since the probability that the sum is an "11" is 5/45 = 1/9, then it would be fair to pay one dollar to play the game if the payoff for an "11" is nine dollars. Similarly, the payoff for a wager of one hundred dollars should be nine hundred dollars. Now consider an alternative way to play the game. Now Zori draws out a pair; the results are observed; and the marbles are set aside. Next, she draws another pair from the remaining eight marbles, followed by a pair selected from the remaining six, etc. Finally, the fifth pair is just the pair that remains after the fourth pair has been selected. Now players may be free to wager on the outcome of any or all or just some of the five rounds. Explain why either everyone should or no one should wager on the fifth round. Accordingly, the last round is skipped and all marbles are returned to the jar and we start over again. Also explain why an observant player can make lots of money with a payout ratio of nine to one. Now for a more challenging problem, what is the minimum payout ratio above which a player has a winning strategy?
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Transcribed Image Text:6. Ten marbles labeled 1, 2, ..., 10 are placed in a big jar and then stirred up.
Zori, wearing a blindfold, pulls them out of the jar two at a time. Players are
allowed to place bets as to whether the sum of the two marbles in a pair is 11.
There are C(10, 2) = 45 different pairs and exactly 5 of these pairs sums to
eleven.
Suppose Zori draws out a pair; the results are observed; then she returns the
two balls to the jar and all ten balls are stirred before the next sample is taken.
Since the probability that the sum is an "11" is 5/45 = 1/9, then it would be fair
to pay one dollar to play the game if the payoff for an "11" is nine dollars.
Similarly, the payoff for a wager of one hundred dollars should be nine hundred
dollars.
Now consider an alternative way to play the game. Now Zori draws out a pair;
the results are observed; and the marbles are set aside. Next, she draws
another pair from the remaining eight marbles, followed by a pair selected from
the remaining six, etc. Finally, the fifth pair is just the pair that remains after the
fourth pair has been selected. Now players may be free to wager on the
outcome of any or all or just some of the five rounds. Explain why either
everyone should or no one should wager on the fifth round. Accordingly, the last
round is skipped and all marbles are returned to the jar and we start over again.
Also explain why an observant player can make lots of money with a payout
ratio of nine to one. Now for a more challenging problem, what is the minimum
payout ratio above which a player has a winning strategy?
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