6. Most business decisions are made under conditions of either risk or uncertainty. In your opinion, is it easier to make a decision under a condition of risk or a condition of uncertainty? Why?.
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- D through G pleaseCritically evaluate how overraction influences investment decision-making.Consider a firm run by an “incumbent” manager. Suppose the incumbent manager has the opportunity to invest in one of two different projects, Project 1 or Project 2. The incumbent manager has a higher ability in managing Project 1 rather than Project 2. Also, if theincumbent is fired by shareholders, she is replaced by an “alternative” manager whose ability to manage Project 1 is lower than the incumbent’s ability. Suppose the investment in a project is irreversible, and the shareholders’ choice of the incumbent manager salary (as well as their decision on whether to fire her) is taken afterthe investment is made. Also, assume the incumbent manager has a stake in the firm she runs, but she does not fully control it. Questions:(a) Suppose none of the projects gives the manager a direct utility. According to Shleifer and Vishny (1989), which of the two projects should the incumbent manager choose? What is the economic rationale behind this choice? Explain. (b) Suppose the incumbent…
- To assist in their promotions and appraisals, Mazen analyzed and graded the performance of his team members for the previous year. He is sure of his decisions, and the various outcomes, as he had all the needed information. This type of environment that is ideal for decision making is known as a(n) Uncertain environment. Risk environment. Certain environment. Threat environment.You've heard the expression "no pain, no gain"? In the investment world, the comparable phrase would be "no risk, no reward." How you feel about risking your money will drive many of your investment decisions. The risk-comfort scale extends from very conservative (you don't want to risk losing a penny regardless of how little your money ears) to very aggressive (you're willing to risk much of your money for the possibility that it will grow tremendously). As you might guess, most investors' tolerance for risk falls somewhere in between. If you're unsure of what your level of risk tolerance is, this quiz should help. 8. You want to take someone out for a special dinner in a city that's new to you. How do you pick a place? (a) read restaurant reviews in the local newspaper, (b) ask co-workers if they know of a suitable place, (c) call the only other person you know in this city, who eats out a lot but only recently moved there, (d) visit the city sometime before your dinner to check out…It is Spring, 2020. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a major worldwidepharmaceutical company is doing some initial development of a vaccine. At thesame time, they are in discussions with some researchers at a university in England.These researchers began work quite some time ago seeking a vaccine for anothervirus, but the same research can be applied to COVID-19.Now the pharmaceutical company must make a decision. They could:(i) Abandon the project.(ii) Develop their own vaccine.(iii) Go into a partnership with the university.Developing their own vaccine would cost (all figures are in USD) 900 million, andwould have a 40% chance of being successful (i.e. taking the vaccine would actuallyprevent infection by the virus). However, it would then need extensive testing tomake sure that there are no (or at worst, few) unintended side effects. Dependingon what is discovered during the development of the vaccine, there’s a 15% chanceof needing extensive testing, and an 85% chance of…
- How can decision trees be used to make decisions under uncertainty?Described below are situations which have arisen in three unrelated external audit clients of your firm. The year-end in each case is 31 March 20X1. Jade Ltd (Jade) Jade builds and operates fibre optic networks. During the year ended 31 March 20X1, the company incorrectly capitalised costs of £3 million in respect of repairs and maintenance to its networks and included these costs in non-current assets. The directors refuse to make any adjustments in respect of this matter as such an adjustment would cause the company to breach a loan covenant. The total assets of Jade at 31 March 20X1 are £525 million and the profit before tax for the year ended 31 March 20X1 is £71.3 million. Pearl Ltd (Pearl) Pearl maintains continuous inventory records and consequently the company does not perform a physical count at the year end. On 5 May 20X1, a fire in the office at Pearl's warehouse destroyed the company's inventory records and despatch records. The physical inventory was not damaged. There…You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.
- Consider the decision tree involving COSTS below. 300 0.6 0.4 500 1 500 0.7 0.3 200 Which of the following is true? O Action A should be chosen according to an expected value criterion. Action B should be chosen according to an expected value criterion. O Action A is a Nash equilibrium. O Action B is a Berge equilbrium.Jamie McCullough, owner of Leisure World, Inc., is worried about his business’ future. He has tried various strategies for two years now, and he’s still barely breaking even. Two years ago, Jamie McCullough bought the inventory, supplies, equipment, and business of Leisure World, located on the edge of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The business is in an older building along a major highway leading out of town, several miles from any body of water. The previous owner had sales of about $500,000 a year but was just breaking even. For this reason—plus the desire to retire to Arizona—the owner sold to Jamie for roughly the value of the inventory. Leisure World had been selling two well-known brands of small pleasure boats, a leading outboard motor, two brands of snowmobiles and jet-skis, and a line of trailer and pickup-truck campers. The total inventory was valued at $250,000—and Jamie used all of his own savings and borrowed some from two friends to buy the inventory and the business. At the…