5 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving two alternative decision D = {d1, d2} and three states of the environment X = {r1, 82, 13}. Several numbers are omitted but the EMV for the tree is known to be 113 (where the objective is to maximise the utility). 120 22 0.4 100 113 150 dz 22 0.4 80 100 40 (a) Determine the values of a, p, q, b. (b) Draw the 'flipped' tree for this problem and calculate EMV(perfect). (c) Calculate the EVPI.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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5 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving two alternative decisions
D = {d1, d2} and three states of the environment X = {r1, #2, 13}. Several numbers are omitted
but the EMV for the tree is known to be 113 (where the objective is to maximise the utility).
120
22 0.4
100
113
150
dz
22 0.4
80
100
40
(a) Determine the values of a, p, q, b.
(b) Draw the 'flipped' tree for this problem and calculate EMV(perfect).
(c) Calculate the EVPI.
Transcribed Image Text:5 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving two alternative decisions D = {d1, d2} and three states of the environment X = {r1, #2, 13}. Several numbers are omitted but the EMV for the tree is known to be 113 (where the objective is to maximise the utility). 120 22 0.4 100 113 150 dz 22 0.4 80 100 40 (a) Determine the values of a, p, q, b. (b) Draw the 'flipped' tree for this problem and calculate EMV(perfect). (c) Calculate the EVPI.
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