3a. The following table contains data from the Chicago Public School system (CPS) on 6th graders who were retained (forced to repeat grade) or promoted (successfully advanced to the next grade). Calculate the difference in the fraction of students who drop out, comparing students who were retained versus those who were promoted. 6th graders Retained Promoted Fraction retained 0.417 Educational attainment as of fall 2005 Graduated from CPS 0.296 0.404 Dropped out Transferred to private school Moved to another public school district 0.572 0.527 0.036 0.035 0.160 0.154 Still enrolled in the CPS 0.132 0.068 Age when started high school Age when left high school Number of credits completed when left high school Age when dropped out Number of credits completed in high school before dropping out 15.218 14.909 17.243 17.283 86.430 98.469 17.025 17.044 42.863 47.855 3b. Explain why the difference you calculated does not represent the causal effect of being retained. 3c. Provide one example of an omitted variable that could be driving/biasing this relationship. Justify your answer clearly, explaining how the variable is related to both graduation rates and grade retention. Determine the sign/direction of the bias (is the true/causal relationship greater or less than the number that you calculated above?).

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3a. The following table contains data from the Chicago Public School system (CPS) on 6th
graders who were retained (forced to repeat grade) or promoted (successfully advanced to the
next grade). Calculate the difference in the fraction of students who drop out, comparing students
who were retained versus those who were promoted.
6th graders
Retained
Promoted
Fraction retained
0.417
Educational attainment as of fall 2005
Graduated from CPS
0.296
0.404
Dropped out
Transferred to private school
Moved to another public school district
0.572
0.527
0.036
0.035
0.160
0.154
Still enrolled in the CPS
0.132
0.068
Age when started high school
Age when left high school
Number of credits completed when
left high school
Age when dropped out
Number of credits completed in high school
before dropping out
15.218
14.909
17.243
17.283
86.430
98.469
17.025
17.044
42.863
47.855
3b. Explain why the difference you calculated does not represent the causal effect of being
retained.
3c. Provide one example of an omitted variable that could be driving/biasing this relationship.
Justify your answer clearly, explaining how the variable is related to both graduation rates and
grade retention. Determine the sign/direction of the bias (is the true/causal relationship greater or
less than the number that you calculated above?).
Transcribed Image Text:3a. The following table contains data from the Chicago Public School system (CPS) on 6th graders who were retained (forced to repeat grade) or promoted (successfully advanced to the next grade). Calculate the difference in the fraction of students who drop out, comparing students who were retained versus those who were promoted. 6th graders Retained Promoted Fraction retained 0.417 Educational attainment as of fall 2005 Graduated from CPS 0.296 0.404 Dropped out Transferred to private school Moved to another public school district 0.572 0.527 0.036 0.035 0.160 0.154 Still enrolled in the CPS 0.132 0.068 Age when started high school Age when left high school Number of credits completed when left high school Age when dropped out Number of credits completed in high school before dropping out 15.218 14.909 17.243 17.283 86.430 98.469 17.025 17.044 42.863 47.855 3b. Explain why the difference you calculated does not represent the causal effect of being retained. 3c. Provide one example of an omitted variable that could be driving/biasing this relationship. Justify your answer clearly, explaining how the variable is related to both graduation rates and grade retention. Determine the sign/direction of the bias (is the true/causal relationship greater or less than the number that you calculated above?).
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