3. A diagnostic test for a pneumonia is 95 percent accurate, in that if Kier has the pneumonia, it will detect it with a probability of 0.95, and if Kier does not have the pneumonia, it will give a negative result with a probability of 0.95. Suppose that only 0.5 percent of the population has the pneumonia in question. Kier is chosen at random from this population. The test indicates that this Kier has the pneumonia. What is the probability that he does have the pneumonia?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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3. A diagnostic test for a pneumonia is 95 percent accurate, in that if Kier has the pneumonia, it
will detect it with a probability of 0.95, and if Kier does not have the pneumonia, it will give a
negative result with a probability of 0.95. Suppose that only 0.5 percent of the population has
the pneumonia in question. Kier is chosen at random from this population. The test indicates
that this Kier has the pneumonia. What is the probability that he does have the pneumonia?
Transcribed Image Text:3. A diagnostic test for a pneumonia is 95 percent accurate, in that if Kier has the pneumonia, it will detect it with a probability of 0.95, and if Kier does not have the pneumonia, it will give a negative result with a probability of 0.95. Suppose that only 0.5 percent of the population has the pneumonia in question. Kier is chosen at random from this population. The test indicates that this Kier has the pneumonia. What is the probability that he does have the pneumonia?
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