22) A blood test is used to determine whether a person has a disease. 1% of the total population has the disease. If a person has the disease, then the probability that the test outcome is positive is .95. If the person does not have the disease then the probability that the test outcome is negative is .98. If a person takes the blood test and the outcome is positive, then what is the probability that the person has the disease?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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22) A blood test is used to determine whether a person has a disease. 1% of the total
population has the disease. If a person has the disease, then the probability that the test
outcome is positive is .95. If the person does not have the disease then the probability
that the test outcome is negative is .98. If a person takes the blood test and the
outcome is positive, then what is the probability that the person has the disease?
a.
b.
C.
.99x.02
(.01x.95)+(99x.02)
.99x.98
(.01x.95)+(99x.98)
.01x.95
(.01x.95)+(99x.02)
.01x.95
d.
CS Scanned with CamScanner
Transcribed Image Text:22) A blood test is used to determine whether a person has a disease. 1% of the total population has the disease. If a person has the disease, then the probability that the test outcome is positive is .95. If the person does not have the disease then the probability that the test outcome is negative is .98. If a person takes the blood test and the outcome is positive, then what is the probability that the person has the disease? a. b. C. .99x.02 (.01x.95)+(99x.02) .99x.98 (.01x.95)+(99x.98) .01x.95 (.01x.95)+(99x.02) .01x.95 d. CS Scanned with CamScanner
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