28 MV equity 134,250 259,000 29 Debt/Value 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 30 Levered beta 1.150 1.129 1.109 1.090 1.072 31 k equity 0.094 0.093 0.092 0.090 0.089 0.089 32 WACC 0.077 0.077 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 Row 3 x Rov 11 linear trend from initial to final value unlevered beta x [1+ (1-tax)*debt/equity] from CAPM and levered beta (1-t)*r_debt*D/V+k_equity*(1-D/V) 33 PV factor for FCFF 1.000 0.928 0.861 0.799 0.741 0.741 34 PV factor for FCFE 1.000 0.915 0.838 0.769 0.706 0.706 Discount each year at WACC Discount each year at k_equity 35 36 D. Present values Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share 37 PV(FCFF) 9,501 7,983 9,028 9,875 264,657 301,044 261,044 138.12 38 PV(FCFE) 8,699 8,531 9,364 10,010 212,004 248,607 248,607 131.54 39 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 A. Input data P/E 17.90 16.93 15.95 14.98 14.00 Cap spending/shr 10.50 11.50 12.05 12.60 13.15 LT Debt ($M) 40,000 40,000 41,667 Shares (million) 1,890 EPS 4.00 Working Capital 4,000 43,333 45,000 1,893 1,895 1,898 1,900 5.95 7.22 8.48 9.75 6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000 B. Cash flow calculations Profits ($M, after tax) 7,500 11,275 Interest ($M, after tax) 728 728 13,683 758 16,092 18,500 789 819 = (1-tax rate) x r_debt x LT Debt Chg Working Cap ($M) Depreciation ($M) 20,500 Cap Spending ($M) 2,000 5,000 22,000 22,667 23,333 21,770 22,841 23,913 5,000 5,000 24,000 24,985 Terminal value FCFF ($M) FCFE ($M) 10,234 9,267 11,301 9,506 10,175 12,179 13,334 357,373 14,182 300,371 assumes fixed debt ratio after 2020 C. Discount rate calculations Current beta 1.15 Unlevered beta 0.963 terminal growth 0.04 tax_rate 0.35 r_debt 0.028 risk-free rate 0.025 market risk prem 0.06 from Value Line current beta/[1 + (1-tax)*debt/equity)] YTM in 2017 on Moody's Aa2 rated LT debt

Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1PS
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Question

For each of the following scenarios, recalculate the intrinsic value of Chevron’s shares using the free cash flow model of Spreadsheet 13.2 Download Spreadsheet 13.2(included with the question). Treat each scenario independently.(LO 13-4)

The terminal growth rate will be 3%.
Chevron’s current stock market beta (cell B21) is 1.25.
The market risk premium (cell B27) is 6.5%.

 

28 MV equity
134,250
259,000
29 Debt/Value
0.23
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
30 Levered beta
1.150
1.129
1.109
1.090
1.072
31 k equity
0.094
0.093
0.092
0.090
0.089
0.089
32 WACC
0.077
0.077 0.078
0.078
0.079
0.079
Row 3 x Rov 11
linear trend from initial to final value
unlevered beta x [1+ (1-tax)*debt/equity]
from CAPM and levered beta
(1-t)*r_debt*D/V+k_equity*(1-D/V)
33 PV factor for FCFF
1.000
0.928 0.861
0.799
0.741 0.741
34 PV factor for FCFE
1.000
0.915
0.838
0.769
0.706
0.706
Discount each year at WACC
Discount each year at k_equity
35
36 D. Present values
Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share
37 PV(FCFF)
9,501
7,983
9,028
9,875 264,657
301,044
261,044 138.12
38 PV(FCFE)
8,699
8,531
9,364
10,010 212,004
248,607
248,607 131.54
39
Transcribed Image Text:28 MV equity 134,250 259,000 29 Debt/Value 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 30 Levered beta 1.150 1.129 1.109 1.090 1.072 31 k equity 0.094 0.093 0.092 0.090 0.089 0.089 32 WACC 0.077 0.077 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 Row 3 x Rov 11 linear trend from initial to final value unlevered beta x [1+ (1-tax)*debt/equity] from CAPM and levered beta (1-t)*r_debt*D/V+k_equity*(1-D/V) 33 PV factor for FCFF 1.000 0.928 0.861 0.799 0.741 0.741 34 PV factor for FCFE 1.000 0.915 0.838 0.769 0.706 0.706 Discount each year at WACC Discount each year at k_equity 35 36 D. Present values Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share 37 PV(FCFF) 9,501 7,983 9,028 9,875 264,657 301,044 261,044 138.12 38 PV(FCFE) 8,699 8,531 9,364 10,010 212,004 248,607 248,607 131.54 39
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
A. Input data
P/E
17.90
16.93
15.95
14.98
14.00
Cap spending/shr
10.50
11.50
12.05
12.60
13.15
LT Debt ($M)
40,000
40,000 41,667
Shares (million)
1,890
EPS
4.00
Working Capital
4,000
43,333 45,000
1,893 1,895 1,898 1,900
5.95
7.22 8.48 9.75
6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000
B. Cash flow calculations
Profits ($M, after tax)
7,500
11,275
Interest ($M, after tax)
728
728
13,683
758
16,092
18,500
789
819
= (1-tax rate) x r_debt x LT Debt
Chg Working Cap ($M)
Depreciation ($M)
20,500
Cap Spending ($M)
2,000 5,000
22,000 22,667 23,333
21,770 22,841 23,913
5,000
5,000
24,000
24,985
Terminal value
FCFF ($M)
FCFE ($M)
10,234 9,267 11,301
9,506 10,175 12,179
13,334 357,373
14,182 300,371
assumes fixed debt ratio after 2020
C. Discount rate calculations
Current beta
1.15
Unlevered beta
0.963
terminal growth
0.04
tax_rate
0.35
r_debt
0.028
risk-free rate
0.025
market risk prem
0.06
from Value Line
current beta/[1 + (1-tax)*debt/equity)]
YTM in 2017 on Moody's Aa2 rated LT debt
Transcribed Image Text:2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 A. Input data P/E 17.90 16.93 15.95 14.98 14.00 Cap spending/shr 10.50 11.50 12.05 12.60 13.15 LT Debt ($M) 40,000 40,000 41,667 Shares (million) 1,890 EPS 4.00 Working Capital 4,000 43,333 45,000 1,893 1,895 1,898 1,900 5.95 7.22 8.48 9.75 6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000 B. Cash flow calculations Profits ($M, after tax) 7,500 11,275 Interest ($M, after tax) 728 728 13,683 758 16,092 18,500 789 819 = (1-tax rate) x r_debt x LT Debt Chg Working Cap ($M) Depreciation ($M) 20,500 Cap Spending ($M) 2,000 5,000 22,000 22,667 23,333 21,770 22,841 23,913 5,000 5,000 24,000 24,985 Terminal value FCFF ($M) FCFE ($M) 10,234 9,267 11,301 9,506 10,175 12,179 13,334 357,373 14,182 300,371 assumes fixed debt ratio after 2020 C. Discount rate calculations Current beta 1.15 Unlevered beta 0.963 terminal growth 0.04 tax_rate 0.35 r_debt 0.028 risk-free rate 0.025 market risk prem 0.06 from Value Line current beta/[1 + (1-tax)*debt/equity)] YTM in 2017 on Moody's Aa2 rated LT debt
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