28 MV equity 134,250 259,000 29 Debt/Value 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 30 Levered beta 1.150 1.129 1.109 1.090 1.072 31 k equity 0.094 0.093 0.092 0.090 0.089 0.089 32 WACC 0.077 0.077 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 Row 3 x Rov 11 linear trend from initial to final value unlevered beta x [1+ (1-tax)*debt/equity] from CAPM and levered beta (1-t)*r_debt*D/V+k_equity*(1-D/V) 33 PV factor for FCFF 1.000 0.928 0.861 0.799 0.741 0.741 34 PV factor for FCFE 1.000 0.915 0.838 0.769 0.706 0.706 Discount each year at WACC Discount each year at k_equity 35 36 D. Present values Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share 37 PV(FCFF) 9,501 7,983 9,028 9,875 264,657 301,044 261,044 138.12 38 PV(FCFE) 8,699 8,531 9,364 10,010 212,004 248,607 248,607 131.54 39 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 A. Input data P/E 17.90 16.93 15.95 14.98 14.00 Cap spending/shr 10.50 11.50 12.05 12.60 13.15 LT Debt ($M) 40,000 40,000 41,667 Shares (million) 1,890 EPS 4.00 Working Capital 4,000 43,333 45,000 1,893 1,895 1,898 1,900 5.95 7.22 8.48 9.75 6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000 B. Cash flow calculations Profits ($M, after tax) 7,500 11,275 Interest ($M, after tax) 728 728 13,683 758 16,092 18,500 789 819 = (1-tax rate) x r_debt x LT Debt Chg Working Cap ($M) Depreciation ($M) 20,500 Cap Spending ($M) 2,000 5,000 22,000 22,667 23,333 21,770 22,841 23,913 5,000 5,000 24,000 24,985 Terminal value FCFF ($M) FCFE ($M) 10,234 9,267 11,301 9,506 10,175 12,179 13,334 357,373 14,182 300,371 assumes fixed debt ratio after 2020 C. Discount rate calculations Current beta 1.15 Unlevered beta 0.963 terminal growth 0.04 tax_rate 0.35 r_debt 0.028 risk-free rate 0.025 market risk prem 0.06 from Value Line current beta/[1 + (1-tax)*debt/equity)] YTM in 2017 on Moody's Aa2 rated LT debt
28 MV equity 134,250 259,000 29 Debt/Value 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 30 Levered beta 1.150 1.129 1.109 1.090 1.072 31 k equity 0.094 0.093 0.092 0.090 0.089 0.089 32 WACC 0.077 0.077 0.078 0.078 0.079 0.079 Row 3 x Rov 11 linear trend from initial to final value unlevered beta x [1+ (1-tax)*debt/equity] from CAPM and levered beta (1-t)*r_debt*D/V+k_equity*(1-D/V) 33 PV factor for FCFF 1.000 0.928 0.861 0.799 0.741 0.741 34 PV factor for FCFE 1.000 0.915 0.838 0.769 0.706 0.706 Discount each year at WACC Discount each year at k_equity 35 36 D. Present values Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share 37 PV(FCFF) 9,501 7,983 9,028 9,875 264,657 301,044 261,044 138.12 38 PV(FCFE) 8,699 8,531 9,364 10,010 212,004 248,607 248,607 131.54 39 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 A. Input data P/E 17.90 16.93 15.95 14.98 14.00 Cap spending/shr 10.50 11.50 12.05 12.60 13.15 LT Debt ($M) 40,000 40,000 41,667 Shares (million) 1,890 EPS 4.00 Working Capital 4,000 43,333 45,000 1,893 1,895 1,898 1,900 5.95 7.22 8.48 9.75 6,000 11,000 16,000 21,000 B. Cash flow calculations Profits ($M, after tax) 7,500 11,275 Interest ($M, after tax) 728 728 13,683 758 16,092 18,500 789 819 = (1-tax rate) x r_debt x LT Debt Chg Working Cap ($M) Depreciation ($M) 20,500 Cap Spending ($M) 2,000 5,000 22,000 22,667 23,333 21,770 22,841 23,913 5,000 5,000 24,000 24,985 Terminal value FCFF ($M) FCFE ($M) 10,234 9,267 11,301 9,506 10,175 12,179 13,334 357,373 14,182 300,371 assumes fixed debt ratio after 2020 C. Discount rate calculations Current beta 1.15 Unlevered beta 0.963 terminal growth 0.04 tax_rate 0.35 r_debt 0.028 risk-free rate 0.025 market risk prem 0.06 from Value Line current beta/[1 + (1-tax)*debt/equity)] YTM in 2017 on Moody's Aa2 rated LT debt
Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1PS
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Question
For each of the following scenarios, recalculate the intrinsic value of Chevron’s shares using the
The terminal growth rate will be 3%.
Chevron’s current stock market beta (cell B21) is 1.25.
The market risk premium (cell B27) is 6.5%.
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