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2.126 A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A blood test exists for the detection of the disease but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is known that 10% of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and 5% of the time the test gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., a negative result), what is the probability that she has the disease?

2.126 A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A blood test exists for the detection of the disease but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is known that 10% of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and 5% of the time the test gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., a negative result), what is the probability that she has the disease?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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2.126 A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A blood test exists for the detection of the disease but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is known that 10% of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and 5% of the time the test gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., a negative result), what is the probability that she has the disease?
Transcribed Image Text:2.126 A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A blood test exists for the detection of the disease but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is known that 10% of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a negative result) and 5% of the time the test gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a positive result). If a woman over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable (i.e., a negative result), what is the probability that she has the disease?
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