2.11 It's a colt! The offspring of a horse is called a foal. A horse couple has at most one foal at a time. Each foal is equally likely to be a "colt” or a “filly.” We are told that a horse couple has two foals, and at least one of these is a colt. Given this information, what's the probability that both foals are colts? (a) Compute the answer to the above question, assuming only that each foal is equally likely to be a colt or a filly. (b) Now re-compute the answer given the latest discovery: Scientists have discovered that 10% of horse couples only produce colts, 10% of cou- ples only produce fillies, and 80% are equally likely to produce either gender. (c) Is your answer for (b) different from that for (a)? Why?

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2.11 It's a colt!
The offspring of a horse is called a foal. A horse couple has at most one
foal at a time. Each foal is equally likely to be a "colt” or a “filly.” We are
told that a horse couple has two foals, and at least one of these is a colt.
Given this information, what's the probability that both foals are colts?
(a) Compute the answer to the above question, assuming only that each
foal is equally likely to be a colt or a filly.
(b) Now re-compute the answer given the latest discovery: Scientists have
discovered that 10% of horse couples only produce colts, 10% of cou-
ples only produce fillies, and 80% are equally likely to produce either
gender.
(c) Is your answer for (b) different from that for (a)? Why?
Transcribed Image Text:2.11 It's a colt! The offspring of a horse is called a foal. A horse couple has at most one foal at a time. Each foal is equally likely to be a "colt” or a “filly.” We are told that a horse couple has two foals, and at least one of these is a colt. Given this information, what's the probability that both foals are colts? (a) Compute the answer to the above question, assuming only that each foal is equally likely to be a colt or a filly. (b) Now re-compute the answer given the latest discovery: Scientists have discovered that 10% of horse couples only produce colts, 10% of cou- ples only produce fillies, and 80% are equally likely to produce either gender. (c) Is your answer for (b) different from that for (a)? Why?
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