2. Use Bayes' theorem to solve the following: There are two bags. The first bag contains four mangoes and two apples; the second bag contains four mangoes and four apples. We also have a biased coin, which shows "Heads" with probability 0.6 and "Tails" with probability 0.4. If the coin shows "Heads". we pick a fruit at random from bag 1; otherwise we pick a fruit at random from bag 2. Your friend flips the coin (you cannot see the result), picks a fruit at random from the corresponding bag, and presents you a mango. What is the probability that the mango was picked from bag 2?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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2. Use Bayes' theorem to solve the following: There are two bags. The
first bag contains four mangoes and two apples; the second bag contains
four mangoes and four apples. We also have a biased coin, which shows
"Heads" with probability 0.6 and "Tails" with probability 0.4. If the
coin shows "Heads". we pick a fruit at random from bag 1; otherwise
we pick a fruit at random from bag 2. Your friend flips the coin (you
cannot see the result), picks a fruit at random from the corresponding
bag, and presents you a mango.
What is the probability that the mango was picked from bag 2?
Transcribed Image Text:2. Use Bayes' theorem to solve the following: There are two bags. The first bag contains four mangoes and two apples; the second bag contains four mangoes and four apples. We also have a biased coin, which shows "Heads" with probability 0.6 and "Tails" with probability 0.4. If the coin shows "Heads". we pick a fruit at random from bag 1; otherwise we pick a fruit at random from bag 2. Your friend flips the coin (you cannot see the result), picks a fruit at random from the corresponding bag, and presents you a mango. What is the probability that the mango was picked from bag 2?
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