2. Suppose that the general fertility rate, gf re, is following an AR(1) process as shown in (3) below. (3) gfre=yo+Nigfrt-1 + €t. (a) Suppose that ₁ < 1. Obtain an expression for the mean and variance of gf r₂. State any assumptions you have to make and show all the steps you followed. (b) Suppose now that Var(elgfr-) = 0²gfr²_1. Briefly explain why you may not be able to obtain a Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) of yo and ₁ by estimating (3) using OLS. Briefly outline how you can transform the model specification in (3) to obtain a BLUE estimator of the parameters in (3)

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Suppose that the general fertility rate, g f rt , is following an AR(1) process shown in the image below

A) if y1<1, what is the expression for the mean and variance of g f t rt showing any assumptions that were made .

b) suppose that Var (€|gfrt-1)= as shown in the image below.

explain why you may not obtain a best linear unbiased estimator  of y0 and y1 by estimating (3) using OLS.

2. Suppose that the general fertility rate, gf re, is following an AR(1) process as shown in
(3) below.
(3)
gfrt=yo+Vigfrt-1 + €t.
(a) Suppose that ₁ < 1. Obtain an expression for the mean and variance of gf rt.
State any assumptions you have to make and show all the steps you followed.
(b) Suppose now that Var(e|gfrt) = o²gfr²_1.
Briefly explain why you may not be able to obtain a Best Linear Unbiased
Estimator (BLUE) of yo and y₁ by estimating (3) using OLS. Briefly outline how
you can transform the model specification in (3) to obtain a BLUE estimator of the
parameters in (3).
Transcribed Image Text:2. Suppose that the general fertility rate, gf re, is following an AR(1) process as shown in (3) below. (3) gfrt=yo+Vigfrt-1 + €t. (a) Suppose that ₁ < 1. Obtain an expression for the mean and variance of gf rt. State any assumptions you have to make and show all the steps you followed. (b) Suppose now that Var(e|gfrt) = o²gfr²_1. Briefly explain why you may not be able to obtain a Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) of yo and y₁ by estimating (3) using OLS. Briefly outline how you can transform the model specification in (3) to obtain a BLUE estimator of the parameters in (3).
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