2. Let X = (X,,10) be a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain with an intensity matrix Q and state space S = [1,2,...,m). The sample path of X is observed continuously on a finite interval [0,T], T X [1] 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 > T [1] 0.00 1.43 7.41 10.71 15.03 17.02 25.12 27.12 32.05 33.00 36.60 44.41 52.08 Based on this realizations, estimate the intensity matrix of X. (d) Find the average time the process spends in each state. Compare your findings against the above realizations.

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2. Let X = (X,,10) be a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain with an intensity
matrix Q and state space S = [1,2,...,m). The sample path of X is observed continuously
on a finite interval [0,T], T<o, from which the following statistics are recorded
Nij #i→j transitions of X,
Z; =the amount of time X spends in state i = S in total.
Using these information, we want to estimate the intensity matrix Q. Let qi-qii for
each i = S. It is known that the likelihood function of the sample path is given by
m
m
L(qij i, j = S) = (q) e az
(a) Write down the loglikelihood function.
(b) Show that the maximum likelihood estimator qij of qij is given by
Hint: Recall that q=1 Σji ij
Nij
Jij Zi
(c) In a numerical study, a sample path is observed within time window [0,50]. Con-
sider the following realization of sample paths
> X
[1] 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 3
> T
[1] 0.00 1.43 7.41 10.71 15.03 17.02 25.12 27.12
32.05 33.00 36.60 44.41 52.08
Based on this realizations, estimate the intensity matrix of X.
(d) Find the average time the process spends in each state. Compare your findings
against the above realizations.
Transcribed Image Text:2. Let X = (X,,10) be a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain with an intensity matrix Q and state space S = [1,2,...,m). The sample path of X is observed continuously on a finite interval [0,T], T<o, from which the following statistics are recorded Nij #i→j transitions of X, Z; =the amount of time X spends in state i = S in total. Using these information, we want to estimate the intensity matrix Q. Let qi-qii for each i = S. It is known that the likelihood function of the sample path is given by m m L(qij i, j = S) = (q) e az (a) Write down the loglikelihood function. (b) Show that the maximum likelihood estimator qij of qij is given by Hint: Recall that q=1 Σji ij Nij Jij Zi (c) In a numerical study, a sample path is observed within time window [0,50]. Con- sider the following realization of sample paths > X [1] 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 > T [1] 0.00 1.43 7.41 10.71 15.03 17.02 25.12 27.12 32.05 33.00 36.60 44.41 52.08 Based on this realizations, estimate the intensity matrix of X. (d) Find the average time the process spends in each state. Compare your findings against the above realizations.
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