2. Consider the following game. There are N players. Each player i has two choices: A or B. The state of the world is also either A or B, and each player gains one util from matching her action to the state, no utils from mismatching. All players share a common prior belief about the probability of A, denoted π = P(A) € (0,1). Each player i observes a private signal si, conditionally IID across players. The signal is either a or b, with probability P(s; = a/A) = P(s; = b|B) = q € (1, 1). Players take turns making their choices, and observe the choices made by their pre- decessors. The order of moves coincides with the natural ordering of players' names, thus, player 1 chooses first, player 2 second, etc. (a) Find player i's posterior beliefs and optimal choice given her signal predecessors' actions for i = 1, 2, 3. (b) Assume that, when a player is indifferent between two choices, she flips a fair coin to decide. Prove that player 3 relies on her information to make her own decision with probability q(1-q), and that, with probability 1-q(1-q), every subsequent player starting from player 3 will disregard her own signal when making a decision.
2. Consider the following game. There are N players. Each player i has two choices: A or B. The state of the world is also either A or B, and each player gains one util from matching her action to the state, no utils from mismatching. All players share a common prior belief about the probability of A, denoted π = P(A) € (0,1). Each player i observes a private signal si, conditionally IID across players. The signal is either a or b, with probability P(s; = a/A) = P(s; = b|B) = q € (1, 1). Players take turns making their choices, and observe the choices made by their pre- decessors. The order of moves coincides with the natural ordering of players' names, thus, player 1 chooses first, player 2 second, etc. (a) Find player i's posterior beliefs and optimal choice given her signal predecessors' actions for i = 1, 2, 3. (b) Assume that, when a player is indifferent between two choices, she flips a fair coin to decide. Prove that player 3 relies on her information to make her own decision with probability q(1-q), and that, with probability 1-q(1-q), every subsequent player starting from player 3 will disregard her own signal when making a decision.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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![2. Consider the following game. There are N players. Each player i has two choices: A
or B. The state of the world is also either A or B, and each player gains one util
from matching her action to the state, no utils from mismatching. All players share
a common prior belief about the probability of A, denoted = P(A) e (0,1). Each
player i observes a private signal si, conditionally IID across players. The signal is
either a or b, with probability P(s; = a|A) = P(s; = b|B) = q € (}, 1).
%3D
Players take turns making their choices, and observe the choices made by their pre-
decessors. The order of moves coincides with the natural ordering of players' names,
thus, player 1 chooses first, player 2 second, etc.
(a) Find player i's posterior beliefs and optimal choice given her signal predecessors'
actions for i = 1, 2, 3.
(b) Assume that, when a player is indifferent between two choices, she flips a fair
coin to decide. Prove that player 3 relies on her information to make her own
decision with probability q(1 – q), and that, with probability 1 – q(1 – q), every
subsequent player starting from player 3 will disregard her own signal when
making a decision.](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F34a1550c-9170-42ae-b0c6-4a8faf427509%2F0e371108-8f85-4b3b-9395-29e7038aea62%2F1la555r_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:2. Consider the following game. There are N players. Each player i has two choices: A
or B. The state of the world is also either A or B, and each player gains one util
from matching her action to the state, no utils from mismatching. All players share
a common prior belief about the probability of A, denoted = P(A) e (0,1). Each
player i observes a private signal si, conditionally IID across players. The signal is
either a or b, with probability P(s; = a|A) = P(s; = b|B) = q € (}, 1).
%3D
Players take turns making their choices, and observe the choices made by their pre-
decessors. The order of moves coincides with the natural ordering of players' names,
thus, player 1 chooses first, player 2 second, etc.
(a) Find player i's posterior beliefs and optimal choice given her signal predecessors'
actions for i = 1, 2, 3.
(b) Assume that, when a player is indifferent between two choices, she flips a fair
coin to decide. Prove that player 3 relies on her information to make her own
decision with probability q(1 – q), and that, with probability 1 – q(1 – q), every
subsequent player starting from player 3 will disregard her own signal when
making a decision.
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