Just need work shown. :) 19. Your Company manufactures and sells high end advertising signs. Your task is todetermine the future probability of a Favorable Market (FM) and an Unfavorable Market(UFM).You currently believe that the P(FM) = 0.6 and P(UFM) = 0.4 (your Prior Probabilities).You have the opportunity to hire an outside consulting firm (Evaluate Inc) to conductresearch and provide either a Positive or Negative Market Report You do some of yourown research on their performance on previous studies conducted for other firms. Theresults of your research on Evaluate Inc showed that for all the studies that resulted in aPOSITIVE MARKET REPORT (PMR) to the customer, 80 percent of those cases endedup being a FAVORABLE MARKET (FM) and 20 percent of those cases ended up beingan UNFAVORABLE MARKET (UFM). There were other studies that resulted in aNegative Market Report (which are not pertinent to this problem).The Conditional Probability formulation of this information about Evaluate Inc is:P(PMR/FM) = 0.8P(PMR/UNF) = 0.2You decide to hire Evaluate to conduct the study. After the study, they come back with aPOSITIVE MARKET REPORT (PMR) to you.You now need to compute the Posterior Probabilities of FM and UNF. That is, computeP(FM/PMR)andP(UFM/PMR).

Bayes formula : P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)P(B)

19. Your Company manufactures and sells high end advertising signs. Your task is to determine the future probability of a Favorable Market (FM) and an Unfavorable Market (UFM). You currently believe that the P(FM) = 0.6 and P(UFM) = 0.4 (your Prior Probabilities).

19. Your Company manufactures and sells high end advertising signs. Your task is to determine the future probability of a Favorable Market (FM) and an Unfavorable Market (UFM). You currently believe that the P(FM) = 0.6 and P(UFM) = 0.4 (your Prior Probabilities).

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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Concept explainers

Transformation of Graphs

The word ‘transformation’ means modification. Transformation of the graph of a function is a process by which we modify or change the original graph and make a new graph.

Exponential Functions

The exponential function is a type of mathematical function which is used in real-world contexts. It helps to find out the exponential decay model or exponential growth model, in mathematical models. In this topic, we will understand descriptive rules, concepts, structures, graphs, interpreter series, work formulas, and examples of functions involving exponents.

Question

Just need work shown. :)

19. Your Company manufactures and sells high end advertising signs. Your task is to
determine the future probability of a Favorable Market (FM) and an Unfavorable Market
(UFM).
You currently believe that the P(FM) = 0.6 and P(UFM) = 0.4 (your Prior Probabilities).
You have the opportunity to hire an outside consulting firm (Evaluate Inc) to conduct
research and provide either a Positive or Negative Market Report You do some of your
own research on their performance on previous studies conducted for other firms. The
results of your research on Evaluate Inc showed that for all the studies that resulted in a
POSITIVE MARKET REPORT (PMR) to the customer, 80 percent of those cases ended
up being a FAVORABLE MARKET (FM) and 20 percent of those cases ended up being
an UNFAVORABLE MARKET (UFM). There were other studies that resulted in a
Negative Market Report (which are not pertinent to this problem).
The Conditional Probability formulation of this information about Evaluate Inc is:
P(PMR/FM) = 0.8
P(PMR/UNF) = 0.2
You decide to hire Evaluate to conduct the study. After the study, they come back with a
POSITIVE MARKET REPORT (PMR) to you.
You now need to compute the Posterior Probabilities of FM and UNF. That is, compute
P(FM/PMR)
and
P(UFM/PMR).

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