19. Suppose you are tested to see if you have a rare disease. Assume that if you have the disease, your testwill always come back positive, but if you do nothave the disease, there is still a 0.001 chance that youwill test positive. In reality, only 1 of 10,000 peoplehave the disease. Your doctor calls and says that youhave tested positive. He is sorry but there is a 99.9%(120.001) chance that you have the disease. Is hecorrect? What is the actual probability that you havethe disease?
19. Suppose you are tested to see if you have a rare disease. Assume that if you have the disease, your testwill always come back positive, but if you do nothave the disease, there is still a 0.001 chance that youwill test positive. In reality, only 1 of 10,000 peoplehave the disease. Your doctor calls and says that youhave tested positive. He is sorry but there is a 99.9%(120.001) chance that you have the disease. Is hecorrect? What is the actual probability that you havethe disease?
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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19. Suppose you are tested to see if you have a rare disease. Assume that if you have the disease, your test
will always come back positive, but if you do not
have the disease, there is still a 0.001 chance that you
will test positive. In reality, only 1 of 10,000 people
have the disease. Your doctor calls and says that you
have tested positive. He is sorry but there is a 99.9%
(120.001) chance that you have the disease. Is he
correct? What is the actual
the disease?
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