10. Continuing the preceding problem, suppose thatanother key uncertain input is the development time,which is measured in an integer number of months.For each of the following scenarios, choose an appropriate distribution together with its parameters, justifyyour choice in words, and use @RISK to draw yourchosen distribution.a. Company experts believe the development timewill be from 6 to 10 months, but they have absolutely no idea which of these will result.b. Company experts believe the development timewill be from 6 to 10 months. They believe theprobabilities of these five possible values willincrease linearly to a most likely value at 8 monthsand will then decrease linearly.c. Company experts believe the development timewill be from 6 to 10 months. They believe that8 months is twice as likely as either 7 months or9 months and that either of these latter possibilities is three times as likely as either 6 months or10 months.
10. Continuing the preceding problem, suppose that
another key uncertain input is the development time,
which is measured in an integer number of months.
For each of the following scenarios, choose an appropriate distribution together with its parameters, justify
your choice in words, and use @RISK to draw your
chosen distribution.
a. Company experts believe the development time
will be from 6 to 10 months, but they have absolutely no idea which of these will result.
b. Company experts believe the development time
will be from 6 to 10 months. They believe the
probabilities of these five possible values will
increase linearly to a most likely value at 8 months
and will then decrease linearly.
c. Company experts believe the development time
will be from 6 to 10 months. They believe that
8 months is twice as likely as either 7 months or
9 months and that either of these latter possibilities is three times as likely as either 6 months or
10 months.
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