1.4.34. A chemist wishes to detect an impurity in a certain compound that she is making. There is a test that detects an impurity with probability 0.90; however, this test indicates that an impurity is there when it is not about 5% of the time. The chemist produces compounds with the impurity about 20% of the time. A compound is selected at random from the chemist's output. The test indicates that an impurity is present. What is the conditional probability that the compound actually has the impurity?

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1.4.34. A chemist wishes to detect an impurity in a certain compound that she is
making. There is a test that detects an impurity with probability 0.90; however,
this test indicates that an impurity is there when it is not about 5% of the time.
The chemist produces compounds with the impurity about 20% of the time. A
compound is selected at random from the chemist's output. The test indicates that
an impurity is present. What is the conditional probability that the compound
actually has the impurity?
Transcribed Image Text:1.4.34. A chemist wishes to detect an impurity in a certain compound that she is making. There is a test that detects an impurity with probability 0.90; however, this test indicates that an impurity is there when it is not about 5% of the time. The chemist produces compounds with the impurity about 20% of the time. A compound is selected at random from the chemist's output. The test indicates that an impurity is present. What is the conditional probability that the compound actually has the impurity?
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