1. There are two coins in a box. One is a fair coin. The other is a fake coin. With the trick coin, the probability of tossing heads is only 1/4. You don't know which is the trick coin and which is fair. I draw a coin at random from the box (equal probability of drawing either coin). Then I toss that coin twice. (a) What is the probability that the first toss is tails and the second is heads? (b) Given that the first toss was tails. What is the probability that the second toss is heads? (c) Given that the first toss was tails and the second was heads. What is

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1. There are two coins in a box. One is a fair coin. The other is a fake coin.
With the trick coin, the probability of tossing heads is only 1/4. You don't
know which is the trick coin and which is fair. I draw a coin at random from
the box (equal probability of drawing either coin). Then I toss that coin twice.
(a) What is the probability that the first toss is tails and the second is heads?
(b) Given that the first toss was tails. What is the probability that the
second toss is heads?
(c) Given that the first toss was tails and the second was heads. What is
the probability that we have the trick coin?
Transcribed Image Text:1. There are two coins in a box. One is a fair coin. The other is a fake coin. With the trick coin, the probability of tossing heads is only 1/4. You don't know which is the trick coin and which is fair. I draw a coin at random from the box (equal probability of drawing either coin). Then I toss that coin twice. (a) What is the probability that the first toss is tails and the second is heads? (b) Given that the first toss was tails. What is the probability that the second toss is heads? (c) Given that the first toss was tails and the second was heads. What is the probability that we have the trick coin?
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