1. For a specific county, 10 floods have occurred in 50 years. For this problem, a “flood year” is any year where a flood occurs some time during the year. This can be modelled as a Poisson process. a) What is the probability that next year will be a flood year? b) What is the probability that there will be 10 floods in the next 50 years? c) What is the probability that there will be 1 flood in the next 10 years? d) Over a 50 year period, how many floods could be expected? e) Over a 50 year period, how many “flood years” could be expected?

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1. For a specific county, 10 floods have occurred in 50 years. For this problem, a “flood year” is any year where a flood occurs some time during the year. This can be modelled as a Poisson process.

a) What is the probability that next year will be a flood year?

b) What is the probability that there will be 10 floods in the next 50 years?

c) What is the probability that there will be 1 flood in the next 10 years?

d) Over a 50 year period, how many floods could be expected?

e) Over a 50 year period, how many “flood years” could be expected?

Expert Solution
Step 1

given dataλ =10 per 50 year = 15 per year = 0.2x = No. of flood in to yearsp(x=X) - e-λt(λt)xx!                           - poisson distribution

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