+0.3ut-1 + Ut 2u²_₁ + 0.70²_₁ + 0.4u²-1lt-1 erve U₁-1 = 0.5 and ot₁-1 = 0.4, the optimal forecast of the equity return for se.

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Consider the following MA(1) - TGARCH-in-Mean model for equity returns.
rt = 0.5 +0.20 +0.3ut-1 + ut
= 0.8 + 0.2u²_₁ + 0.70²-₁ + 0.4u²-1lt-1
Given that you observe ut-1 = 0.5 and ot-1 = 0.4, the optimal forecast of the equity return for time t
(i.e. for rt) is:
Select one:
a. 0.8624
b. 1.0620
c. 0.9620
d. None of these.
e. 0.8424
Transcribed Image Text:Consider the following MA(1) - TGARCH-in-Mean model for equity returns. rt = 0.5 +0.20 +0.3ut-1 + ut = 0.8 + 0.2u²_₁ + 0.70²-₁ + 0.4u²-1lt-1 Given that you observe ut-1 = 0.5 and ot-1 = 0.4, the optimal forecast of the equity return for time t (i.e. for rt) is: Select one: a. 0.8624 b. 1.0620 c. 0.9620 d. None of these. e. 0.8424
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