LAB 8

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Apr 3, 2024

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3/13/24, 2:43 PM Quiz:; E3 Assignment Lab Week8 E3 Assignment Lab Week3 Started: Mar 13 at 2:43p.m. Quiz Instructions This tutorial lab is about childhood leukemia cases in Woburn MA. Leukemia is a kind of cancer. The leukemia cases in Woburn are an example of a possible disease cluster. You can read about what a disease or illness cluster in the course materials for week8 in Canvas. Go to canvas course website > modules > week8. Woburn is a small industrial town about 20 kms northwest of Boston. This map shows its location: Woburn, o Massachusetts Between 1964 and 1986, twenty-eight Woburn children were diagnosed with leukemia. While some lived, many of them died from the disease. Here is a map of Woburn showing where the children with leukemia lived in Woburn N MR e | pale oy ewte TRA e T T ¢ e . NORI RN — . .- . - For the US in general at that time the average incidence of leukemia was 3.74 cases per 100000 children. According to US census data 36000 children lived in Woburn during the period. https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708105/take 1/5

3/13/24, 2:43 PM Quiz: E3 Assignment Lab Week8 One thing the Woburn children with leukemia had in common was that their mothers drank water which came from two town wells, G and H, while they were pregnant with these children. According to hydrogeological research the water in these wells came at least partly from a waste site in Woburn with dangerous chemicals. Of course lots of other mothers living in Woburn drank this water too and did not have children with leukemia. These leukemia cases along with some other cases of kinds of illnesses in the city of Woburn were made famous a few years ago by the book and the movie "A Civil Action". You can watch parts of the movie in the canvas course website. Go to canvas course website > media gallery > CivilAction. The book and the movie concentrate on the legal case against the owners of the waste site and not so much on the science and the scientific reasoning in the example. Question 1 0 pts What are the names and student numbers of the people working on this assignment? Edit View Insert Format Tools Table 12pt v Paragraph Vv B /7 U A v 2 v T2v p @ Owords </> Question 2 2 pts What is most expected number of cases of childhood leukemia in a randomly chosen sample of 36000 American children at the time of the Woburn cases? You should round your answer to two decimal places. Show your calculations for figuring out the most expected number. https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708105/take 2/5

3/13/24, 2:43 PM Quiz:; E3 Assignment Lab Week8 Edit View Insert Format Tools Table 12pt v Paragraph v/ B 7 U A+v 2 v T2v p @® Owords <> Question 3 2 pts Was the number of cases of childhood leukemia in Woburn greater than what would be expected in a randomly chosen sample of 36000 American children at the time? Explain in your answer how you figured this out. Edit View Insert Format Tools Table 12pt v Paragraph v B 7 U A+v £ v T2v https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708105/take 3/5

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3/13/24, 2:43 PM Quiz:; E3 Assignment Lab Week8 P @® Oowords <> Question 4 7 pts Was the number of cases of childhood leukemia in Woburn not just greater than expected or not but also unusually or extremely unusually greater than expected? To answer this question we'll need a definition of "unusually greater than expected" and "extremely unusually greater than expected” and we'll need to estimate a probability. We'll say A value of a variable (for example, the number of cases of leukemia) in a sample is just moderately greater than expected given a value of the the variable in the whole population the sample is from if the total probability of getting that value and even higher than that value in the sample is > 5%. A value of a variable (for example, the number of cases of leukemia) in a sample is unusually greater than expected given a value of the the variable in the whole population the sample is from if the total probability of getting that value and even higher than that value in the sample is < 5% and > 1%. A value of a variable (for example, the number of cases of leukemia) in a sample is extremely unusually greater than expected given a value of the the variable in the whole population the sample is from if the total probability of getting that value and even higher than that value is < 1%. To estimate the probability that the observed number of cases and even more of children with leukemia in the Woburn sample given the rate of children with leukemia in the general population totals to n% you need to run the WoburnSTATS101 computer simulation. Go to canvas course website > learning modules > week 8 to download this simulation program. For this assignment you only need to run the simulation once to estimate the probability. You will need to fill in some numbers in the computer simulation. You need to replace xxx and yyy and zzz in the program. xxx and yyy should total 100M. xxx is the number of cases of childhood leukemia there would be in a population of 100M based on the average. yyy is the number of cases that would not be cases of childhood leukemia there would be in a population of 100M based on the average. zzz is the sample size. It is how many children there were in Woburn at the time. Your answer for this question should include Your STATISTICS101 simulation code with the values for xxx and yyy and zzz included. (2 points) A copy of your histogram graph or theoretical sampling distribution. (1 point) Your estimate of the total probability for the observed number of cases and even more of children with leukemia in the Woburn sample given the rate of children with leukemia in the general population. State this as a percentage. Remember the rule about reporting probability estimates based on the number of repeats or random samplings done by a simulation. (2 points) https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708105/take 4/5

3/13/24, 2:43 PM Quiz:; E3 Assignment Lab Week8 Your answer to the questions "Is the observed number of cases of children with leukemia in the Woburn sample only moderately greater than expected, unusually greater than expected, or extremely unusually greater than expected?" together with an explanation of your answer. The explanation should apply the definitions given above. (2 points) Edit View Insert Format Tools Table 12pt v Paragraph v B 7 U A+v £ v T2v @ oOowords <> Quiz saved at 2:43pm Submit Quiz https://canvas.ubc.ca/courses/132235/quizzes/708105/take 5/5

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