HWK3_324

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University of Wisconsin, Madison *

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324

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Statistics

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Feb 20, 2024

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Statistics 324 Homework #3 Student Name Here *Submit your homework to Canvas by the due date and time. Email your lecturer if you have extenuating circumstances and need to request an extension. *If an exercise asks you to use R, include a copy of the code and output. Please edit your code and output to be only the relevant portions. *If a problem does not specify how to compute the answer, you many use any appropriate method. I may ask you to use R or use manually calculations on your exams, so practice accordingly. *You must include an explanation and/or intermediate calculations for an exercise to be complete. *Be sure to submit the HWK3 Auto grade Quiz which will give you ~20 of your 40 accuracy points. *50 points total: 40 points accuracy, and 10 points completion Exercise 1: A chemical supply company ships a certain solvent in 10-gallon drums. Let X represent the number of drums ordered by a randomly chosen customer. Assume X has the following probability mass function (pmf). The mean and variance of X is : µ X = 2 . 2 and σ 2 X = 1 . 76 = 1 . 32665 2 : X P(X=x) 1 0.4 2 0.3 3 0.1 4 0.1 5 0.1 a. Calculate P ( X 2) and describe what it means in the context of the problem. b. Let Y be the number of gallons ordered, so Y = 10 X . Complete the probability mass function of Y. y P(Y=y) c. Calculate µ Y . Interpret this value. d. Calculate σ Y . Interpret this value. 1
Exercise 2 Four patients make appointments to have their blood pressure checked at a clinic. Let X be the number of them who have high blood pressure. Based on data from the National Health and Examination Survey, the approximate probability distribution of X based on long term data for this type of patient is: x 0 1 2 3 4 P(X=x) 0.22 0.40 0.28 0.09 0.01 a. What is the value of P ( X 2) ? What does this value mean in the context of the question? b. What is the probability that at least one of the 4 patients will have high blood pressure? c. Compute the expected value of X, µ X What does this value mean in the context of the question? d. What is the standard deviation of X, σ X ? What does this value mean? e. Consider using a binomial random variable with n=4 to approximate the distribution of X given above, X Bin ( n = 4 , π =??) . What is an approximate probability of a single patient of this type having high blood pressure when they make an appointment, π ? Exercise 3 A customer receives a very large shipment of items. The customer assumes 15% of the items in the shipment are defective. You can assume that the defectiveness of items is independent within the shipment and use a 0.15 probability of defectiveness for each item. Someone on the quality assurance team samples 4 items. Let X be the random variable for the number of defective items in the sample. a. Determine the probability distribution of X (write out the pmf) using probability theory. x P(X=x) b. Compute P(X>0). What does this value mean in the context of the scenerio? c. What is the expected value for X, µ X ? What does that value mean in the context of the scenerio? d. What is the standard deviation for X, σ X ? e. Update the following simulation and use it to check your answers for (at least ) part (3a). You will need to change a few values to reflect the random process correctly. (Why did I define IsDefective as I did? What values would be helpful stored into the CountDefective vector & how can we compute those? What does the histogram show?) IsDefective = c ( rep ( 1 , 15 ), rep ( 0 , 85 )) manytimes = 3 CountDefective = rep ( 0 ,manytimes) set.seed ( 1 ) for (i in 1 : manytimes){ samp = sample (IsDefective, 10000 , replace= FALSE ) CountDefective[i] = count (samp) } hist (CountDefective, labels= TRUE , ylim= c ( 0 ,. 7 * manytimes), breaks= seq ( - 0.5 , 4.5 , 1 )) 2
f. Suppose the quality assurance employee is now going to look at 20 items from the shipment. They still believe it is reasonable to use a Binomial model (n=20, π = 0 . 15 ) to describe the number of items in those 20 that will have a defect. fi. What the the probability that exactly 5 of those 20 items have a defect? fii. What the the probability that 5 or more of those 20 items have a defect? fiii. Which histogram given below correctly shows the pdf for the binomial model described in f? par ( mfrow= c ( 2 , 2 ), mar= c ( 4 , 4 , 2 , 1 )) barplot ( names= 0 : 5 , dbinom ( 0 : 5 , 15 , prob= 0.85 ), xlab= "" , ylab= "Probability" , main= "Graph A" , space= 0 ) barplot ( names= 0 : 20 , dbinom ( 0 : 20 , 20 , prob= 0.85 ), xlab= "" , ylab= "Probability" , main= "Graph B" , space= 0 ) barplot ( names= 0 : 20 , dbinom ( 0 : 20 , 20 , prob= 0.15 ), xlab= "" , ylab= "Probability" , main= "Graph C" , space= 0 ) barplot ( names= 0 : 5 , dbinom ( 0 : 5 , 15 , prob= 0.15 ), xlab= "" , ylab= "Probability" , main= "Graph D" , space= 0 ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Graph A Probability 0e+00 4e-06 0 2 4 6 8 11 14 17 20 Graph B Probability 0.00 0.10 0.20 0 2 4 6 8 11 14 17 20 Graph C Probability 0.00 0.10 0.20 0 1 2 3 4 5 Graph D Probability 0.00 0.10 0.20 par ( mfrow= c ( 1 , 1 ), mar= c ( 5.1 , 4.1 , 4.1 , 2.1 )) 3
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Exercise 4: The bonding strength S of a drop of plastic glue from a particular manufacturer is thought to be well approximated by a normal distribution with mean 98 lbs and standard deviation 7.5 lbs. S N (98 , 7 . 5 2 ) . Compute the following values using a normal model assumption. Thinking about studying for the midterm. . . Make sure you could use the output of this code in your solutions: Figure 1: R Output a. What proportion of drops of plastic glue will have a bonding strength between 95 and 104 lbs according to this model? b. A single drop of that glue had a bonding strength that is 0.5 standard deviations above the mean. What proportion of glue drops have a bonding strength that is higher ? c. What bonding strength did a drop of glue have that is at the 90th percentile? d. What is the IQR of bonding strength for drops of glue from this manufacturer? e. Drops of a similar plastic glue from another manufacturer (manufacturer B) is claimed to have bonding strength well approximated by a normal distribution with mean 43 kg and standard deviation of 3.5 kg W B.kg N (43 , 3 . 5 2 ) . What is the probability that a drop of manufacturer B’s glue will have strength above the 90th percentile strength of manufacturer A’s glue? 4