GM506 diss 3

Although the unpredicted, yet disruptive, impact of the CoViD-19 pandemic is global and has negatively affected all organizations, identify a business organization that you think has been affected the most. In the new normal, which forecasting time horizon (short-range, medium-range, or long-range) would you suggest should be adopted by this organization in forecasting the demand for its main product? Justify your answer. Cite your assumptions. Cite 2 to 3 factors that this business organization should use as a basis for forecasting the demand for its main product. Justify your answer.

This type of analysis is most appropriate when the past is a good predictor of the future.

Sales for the past 12 months at computer success are given here: January 3,000      July 6,300 february 3,400      August 7,200 March 3,700         Sept 6,400 April 4,100            Oct 4,600 May 4,700            Nov 4,200 June 5,700           December 3,900 a. Use a 3-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December b. Use a 4-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December C. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend? e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times?   We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?

Answer the following questions. 1. What is the current economic climate? 2. What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer orders and long lead times? 3. We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help Sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?

When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?

Paraphrase this one. Analyze and elaborate in 200 words. Why organizations use time series data analysis? Time series analysis helps organizations understand the underlying causes of trends or systemic patterns over time. Using data visualizations, business users can see seasonal trends and dig deeper into why these trends occur. With modern analytics platforms, these visualizations can go far beyond line graphs. When organizations analyze data over consistent intervals, they can also use time series forecasting to predict the likelihood of future events. Time series forecasting is part of predictive analytics. It can show likely changes in the data, like seasonality or cyclic behavior, which provides a better understanding of data variables and helps forecast better.

A forecaster is assessing two different models for demand. The output from each model and the actual demand data appears in the table. Use MAD to compare the two models. Which model does a better job of forecasting? Demand Model 1 52 52 54 56 60 56 58 58 52 57 53 57 Model 2 21 55 54.7 51.9 54.5 52.0 53.8 55.8 59.6 56.4 52 53.5 53.5 55.5 56.5 57.5 57.8 58.0 58.0 56.0 52.6 56.3 56.6 55.0 53.4 O Model 2 is 9% better O Model 1 is 8% better O Model 2 is 15% better O Model 1 is 5% better

A forecast is, basically, a prediction, or guess.  Business people would like the prediction to be as accurate as possible, however it is still a guess about something that will happen in the future.  Consider then, the nature and characteristics of forecasting. What do you think the difficulties or obstacles to accurate forecasting might be?  Submit and explain as many of these difficulties as you can think of.

Through forecasting, organizations attempt to adapt to or change the future as predicted through planning.       True       False

Suppose a firm has had the following historic sales figures. Year: 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales $3,400,000 $4,650,000 $3,300,000 $2,900,000 What would be the forecast for next year's sales using the naïve approach? Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Next year's sales $ 3,550,000 2020 $3,500,000

Explain the term Forcasting. Why forcasting are Forecasting is one of the important functions of management. It is a part and parcel of planning function. Forecasting means prediction about future. Forecasting means analysis of future about the operations of an enterprise. It involves looking ahead for future event. Forecasting means a process of providing the details supported by budget. Forecasting means drawing a conclusion about production, sales, profit on the basis of research, study & survey.

We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?

The following table shows a tool and die company's quarterly sales for the current year. What sales would you predict for the first quarter of next year? Quarter relatives are SR= .94, SR,- 97, SR= 97, and SR, 112. For the trend forecast (T), add the difference between quarter 3 and quarter 4's deseasonalized sales data to the deseasonalized quarter 4 sales. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Quarter Sales 84.6 83.0 84.7 108.0

We are using Winter’s method and monthly data toforecast the GDP. (All numbers are in billions of dollars.)At the end of January 2005, Lt 600 and Tt 5. We aregiven the following seasonalities: January, 0.80; February,0.85; December, 1.2. During February 2005, the GDP is ata level of 630. At the end of February what is the forecastfor the December 2005 level of the GDP? Use a b g 0.5.

Distinguish between Historical Analogy and the Delphi Method forecasting and discuss a business application suitable for each methodology. In each example, discuss why the chosen method (Historical Analogy or Delphi) is more appropriate than the other. Use -- Evans, J. (2020). Business analytics (3rd ed.). Pearson.

What role does forecasting play in the planning process, and what are some methods and models used for making accurate predictions and projections?

Cost Estimation; High-Low and Regression Methods The Mac Davis Company specializesin the purchase, renovation, and resale of older homes. Mac employs several carpenters and paintersto do the work for him. It is essential for him to have accurate cost estimates so he can determinetotal renovation costs before he purchases a piece of property. If estimated renovation costs plus thepurchase price of a house are higher than the house’s estimated resale value, it is not a worthwhileinvestment.Mac has been using the home’s interior square feet for his exterior paint cost estimations. Recentlyhe decided to include the number of external openings—the total number of doors and windows ina house—as a cost driver. Their cost is significant because they require time-consuming preparatorywork and careful brushwork. The rest of the house usually is painted either by rollers or spray guns,which are relatively efficient ways to apply paint to a large area. Mac has kept careful records of theseexterior…

Cadbury Schweppes owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" outlets in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and advertising expenses for the stores are provided in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; advertising expenses are in tens of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of sales for a store with advertising spending of R240,000? R300,000? Store               1         2      3      4      5       6       7       8       9       10      11      12Advertising     14       11    15    16     24     28     22     21     26     43      34       9Sales              6         3      5      5      15     18     17     12     15      20     14       5

Apple's stock price has performed very well over the last decade. In May 2016, Apple stock dropped below $90 but it recovered and reached $153.57 on May 26, 2017.  The “Apple Price Data”  has data on Apple stock price weekly (before the stock split) for 53 weeks starting May 30, 2016 and ending May 26, 2017. Use this data file to build a model to forecast Apple's stock price for the following week (week 54).

Series forecasting for Business In a regression model if you drop one insignificant variable then Ol a. R will increase and SSE also will increase. O b. None O c. R2will decrease and SSE also will decrease. O d. R2will increase but SSE will decrease. O e. R2will decrease but SSE will increase. CLEAR MY CHOICE IOUS PAGE

A company is introducing reusable straws in the market on the 1st of January 2022. They estimate the total market for reusable straws is approximately 3 million per year. The company expects to sell 500000 straws in the first year. There is a competitor already in the market whose sales per year is 1 million straws per year. Your group have been hired as consultants to answer the following questions: What forecasting techniques should the company use for a) sales this year b) sales next year and c) sales in the next five years? Please justify your recommendations. Please provide forecast figures from year 2 to year 5. I want step by step calculation for exponential smoothing for the year 2 to 5 forecast.

You work for BMW as a planner. BMW is expecting to increase its annual sales for BMW- X5 in year 2021 by 10 % compared to year 2020 annual sales. Find the quarterly forecast for year 2021, given the following data : (You need to consider the Quarterly seasonal effect)    Quarter Actual Car Sales (2019) Actual Car Sales (2020) Quarter 1 80000 88000 Quarter 2 100000 110000 Quarter 3 120000 132000 Quarter 4 90000 99000 

If descriptive analytics focuses on summarizing historical data to gain insights into past events and trends and predictive analytics focused on forecasting future outcomes. What is the significance of the relationship between the past and the future?