CJ682 6-1 Short Paper Revised
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Dec 6, 2023
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6-1 Short Paper: Consequence Analysis
Viktoria Prifti
CJ 682 Threat Assessment – 6-1 Short Paper
Professor Henderson
10/30/2023
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Hanscom Air Force Base's location increases the likelihood of a negative impact in the
event of an attack. Malicious groups such as the Taliban can exploit the physical security
vulnerability and proceed to bomb or shoot the people. The subsequent paper presents an
overview into the scenario based on its impact across various aspects.
Human Impact
Based on the organization's website, it has at least 10,306 employees, with an attack on
the C3I&N facility leading to 3,500 injuries [ CITATION Han232 \l 1033 ]. This translates to at
least 33% of the overall workforce. Furthermore, the attack can cause the deaths of 150
employees. Nonetheless, the base houses at least 1917 people, with current estimates showing
that only 10% are likely to be injured or die from any imminent threat [ CITATION Dat23 \l
1033 ].
The potential for the release of hazardous materials is moderate since the base has a strict
security policy. However, there is a probability of the materials being stolen by contractors and
employees. An attack on the facility will also negatively affect the region. The base will be
closed down, which will lead to the disruption of the local airport's activities. Likewise, the
location is not near the MIT Lincoln Library which serves as a production plant This increases
the risk for the residents and people working at Hanscom.
Economic Impact
The threat assessment reveals that potential and actual attacks will damage the facility.
The likelihood is quite high, with an anticipated damage of around $1.2 billion to equipment.
The base is also exposed to the risk of lost proprietary and confidential information [ CITATION
Han232 \l 1033 ]. This is because it has critical cyber systems which are prone to external and
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internal threats. Furthermore, the attack can lead to the loss of jobs since the base employs at
least 10,000 people and adds $6.4 billion dollars to the economy (Kalb, 2021). The occurrence of
any disruptions will contribute to deleterious effects on the economy. There is a low potential for
both product and environmental damage. Au contraire, the risk is high for the loss of production
at the site.
Impact on Public Confidence
Hanscom Air Force Base has built a positive reputation with the customers and locals.
However, if the Taliban launch an attack against it, then it will lose its brand image. It will be
perceived as a prospective threat to society, with the locals turning against the institution.
Impact of Government Capability
The C3I&N is important in collecting intelligence information vital for decision-making
among combatant commanders. Therefore, any disruptive activities have a deleterious impact on
national security. This is because the communication and information might be leaked, leading to
a loss of combat readiness. Furthermore, the federal government might report issues with
maintaining transportation services to the local airport[ CITATION Bri18 \l 1033 ]. The attack or
threat will lead to closure, with planes being diverted to other sites. Nonetheless, the local
governments and departments, such as the police, will be unable to control the situation
[ CITATION USD202 \l 1033 ]. The airport officials and fire departments will face a hard task in
managing the airlines and disgruntled travelers. The end outcome is the loss of revenue for the
local entities. Also, the occurrence of a major incident will require resource allocation from the
local government and elected officials. Current, the government is ill-equipped due to resource
scarcity and budget shortfalls. A major incident will require help from the city and county
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although there are concerns due to the lack of an effective incident response strategy in the area.
There is a likelihood that the base will face civil liabilities pertaining to community safety. The
leaders might also be court-martialed for not playing their role in safeguarding the facility.
Level of Consequence
The level of consequence is set at 8, considering the human, economic, public
confidence, and government capabilities impact. This level determination is critical in guiding
the base commanders on how to enhance security and minimize the probability of a future attack.
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References
U.S. Department of State Bureau of Counterterrorism. (2020).
Annex of Statistical Information
Country Reports on Terrorism 2019.
Development Services Group, Inc.
Bennett, B. (2018).
Understanding, Assessing, and Responding to Terrorism: Protecting Critical
Infrastructure and Personnel.
Wiley.
Data USA. (2023).
HANSCOM AFB, MA
. Retrieved from Data USA:
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/hanscom-afb-ma#:~:text=Hanscom%20AFB%2C%20MA
%20is%20home,any%20other%20race%20or%20ethnicity.
Hanscom Air Force Base. (2023).
About Us
. Retrieved from Hanscom:
https://www.hanscom.af.mil/
Kalb, G. (2021). Bedford Explained. Retrieved from The Bedford Citizen:
https://thebedfordcitizen.org/2021/06/bedford-explained-hanscom