SCI 425 final project

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Feb 20, 2024

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Running Head: Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 1 Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity Brandon Tackett SCI 425 SNHU

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 2 I. Introduction Alaska is the most unique state of the 50 in the United States. Not only is the terrain and climate different from the other states, they have long periods of night and day due to the position in the process of the Earth’s rotation around the sun, and it is also the most seismically active state. Many Americans would identify California as the most active state, however it is Alaska that holds that title. Another surprising fact that many Americans do not know is that it is Alaska and not Hawaii that has the most active volcanos. With all the volcanic activity in Alaska, there is a real danger to the people living in the area should the volcanic eruptions become even more active. The main problem is how can there be a determination which areas would face a greater danger with the increased activity. Another issue is that scientist have noticed a drastic increase in seismic activity in the area. Ruppert and Grassi report 2022 had 47,045 seismic events. They reported that on average over the last 4 years, Alaska has averaged over 50,000 events. (Ruppert & Grassi, 2023) Alaska has 130 volcanoes, 90 of which have been active in the last 10,000 years. (USGS, 2023) The question that will be researched in this project is: Does the increase in seismic activity indicate and increase in a danger of a major volcanic eruption? My working hypothesis is that it

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 3 does indicate an increase in the danger of a major eruption and thus a higher risk to the citizens in the state. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) says that nearby earthquakes could cause a release in built-up pressure leading to an eruption. (USGS, 2023) My target audience will be the residence in Alaska and the officials in charge of emergency management and public safety. I feel that we can input the data from historical seismic and volcanic activity and come up with a correlation factor, and figure out what areas are in the most danger of facing a major eruption and all the dangers associated with it. II. Annotated Bibliography Lally, K. F., Caplan, A. J., & Power, J. A. (2023). Volcanic and Tectonic Sources of Seismicity Near the Tanaga Volcanic Cluster, Alaska. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems: G3 , 24 (6), 1–19. https://doi-org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2023GC010891 In this article the research team used the double-difference research method to study the volcanic eruptions for the Tanaga islands in Alaska from 2003-2017. There are four stratovolcanoes in the area and there has been a lot of seismic activity in the area as well. In 2005 there were over 600 volcano-tectonic events. The study also showed that there was 5,680 earthquakes during the time period. This study has done extensive research and will contribute to the project and will provide good supporting evidence. Song, Z., Tan, Y. J., & Roman, D. C. (2023). Deep Long‐Period Earthquakes at Akutan Volcano From 2005 to 2017 Better Track Magma Influxes Compared to Volcano‐

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Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 4 Tectonic Earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters , 50 (10), 1–12. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2022GL101987 This article looks at both volcano‐tectonic (VTs) and deep long‐period earthquakes (DLPs) in Akutan Volcano, Alaska. In this study the team investigates their hypothesis that the DLP earthquakes are caused by an unsteady flow of magma beneath the surface. This is important to the proposal because this would be the opposite of the hypothesis, but it would show that the two events do have a direct correlation. This would be a valuable piece of evidence. They used an existing catalog of activity to show that there was a swarm of earthquakes related to times of increased magma flow. Crosby, W. O. (1907). Volcanic Activity in Alaska. Science , 26 (655), 78. This article provides a detailed account of historical data as it pertains to the volcanic and seismic activity in Alaska during this time period. This can be used to give a base line for this project and be used as supporting evidence. Matoza, R. S., & Roman, D. C. (2022). One hundred years of advances in volcano seismology and acoustics. Bulletin of Volcanology , 84 (9), 1–49. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1007/s00445-022-01586-0 This article looks at all the activity in the last 100 years. It also looks at the research of new acoustic monitoring technology that can be used to detect seismic and volcanic activity. This article contains good data on Alaskan volcanoes and how they could be related to each other. This article will contribute to my project because it contains a possible correlation in the variables.

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 5 Albright, J. A., Gregg, P. M., Lu, Z., & Freymueller, J. T. (2019). Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok, Alaska. Geophysical Research Letters , 46 (15), 8801–8808. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2019GL083395 This article talks about 2008 volcanic eruptions that showed no precursors. This goes against the hypothesis because in this case there was no seismic activity prior to the eruption. The research team studied the eruption to see if this was a norm or an outlier. They continued their research to see if there was a history of volcanic eruptions with no prior activity to warn the eruption was coming. Dean, K. G., Engle, K., Groves, J., Dehn, J., & Partington, K. (2002). Analysis of surface processes using SAR data: Westdahl Volcano, Alaska. International Journal of Remote Sensing , 23 (21), 4529–4550. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1080/01431160110113953 This article is the research of a team that used space satellites to survey the topographical surface of Alaska to see if the changes in the surface could predict volcanic eruptions. This is evidence that shows there would be a correlation between seismic activity and volcanic activity. Miller, D., Bennington, N., Haney, M., Bedrosian, P., Key, K., Thurber, C., Hart, L., & Ohlendorf, S. (2020). Linking Magma Storage and Ascent to Eruption Volume and Composition at an Arc Caldera. Geophysical Research Letters , 47 (14), 1–9. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2020GL088122 This article is about a team that researched the special earthquake data and they showed that the earthquake correlated with the dikes of cooled magma in the magma pathways and that the

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 6 quakes themselves can be used to predict volcanic eruptions. This coincides with the hypothesis for the project and cam be used as supporting evidence. Rondenay, S., Montési, L. G. J., & Abers, G. A. (2010). New geophysical insight into the origin of the Denali volcanic gap. Geophysical Journal International , 182 (2), 613–630. https://doi-org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04659.x In this article the team looks at a specific volcanic eruption from 2008 and attempts to determine if the seismic activity could be used as a predictor for the eruption. They believe it could be a result of a wedge called by cooling magma in the subduction zone. This could be used as supporting evidence for the project. Werner, C., Rasmussen, D. J., Plank, T., Kelly, P. J., Kern, C., Lopez, T., Gliss, J., Power, J. A., Roman, D. C., Izbekov, P., & Lyons, J. (2020). Linking Subsurface to Surface Using Gas Emission and Melt Inclusion Data at Mount Cleveland Volcano, Alaska. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems: G3 , 21 (7), 1–33. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2019GC008882 This article contains research and data from Mount Cleveland which is one of Alaska’s most active volcanoes. In this article the team studies Mount Cleveland and looks at the magma system and how that leads to seismic activity that leads to the many eruptions that occur in this highly active system. The team takes an in depth look at the mountain and the causes for the activity. Ruppert, N., & Grassi, B. (2023), 2022 Seismic activity year in review, Alaska Earthquake center https://earthquake.alaska.edu/2022-seismicity-year-review

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Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 7 This article is a scientific study and report of the 2022 seismic activity for Alaska. It has a plethora of data that will be very beneficial to the project. They look at the amount of earthquakes and seismic events and present it with charts, maps, and other visual aids. There is a comparison to the past four years and how 2022 compared. It also describes the glacier activity that has occurred and discusses the aftershocks for all major earthquake swarm events. This is a very informational report that will be very beneficial to this project. III. Research Design The data sources that will be used for this project will include: scholarly articles, science journals, statistics from government bodies such as the United States Geological Survey and the Alaska Earthquake Center, and historical geological data as reported by other researches. This will be a combination of primary and secondary historical data. These sources are strong in that they all provide valid statistics and recorded historical facts. This makes them very reliable and valid. There are limitations in that while they are accurate they are limited to the data that was recorded at the time of the event. They do not go into any detail as to what the cause of the event was and some do not show what magnitude the earthquakes were and if there are any correlations to any volcanic activity. This is another reason for this study to take place to try to create that correlation. The spatial analysis methods that will be used in this project include queries of the geological records that are kept by agencies such as the USGS and the Alaska Earthquake Center and using the statistics that were provided by those queries to take those measurements and calculate the correlation between the seismic and volcanic data that is provided by the data. These will be the

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 8 most appropriate methods to substantiate this project. There will be two primary research methods utilized on this project that include data analysis and the quantitative research method. These two research methods give the opportunity to use statistical analysis of the given data to provide the possible correlation that the project aims to determine. There will also be spatial analysis that will be used on a smaller scale than the other two methods. This will help with supportive data and help to determine if there is a correlation, how strong that correlation is. There will be no ethical issues with these methods because they will be focused on actual data that has been recorded. GIS, maps, and visual aids will play a valuable role in this project because they will give a visual representation of the provided data and will also show the scope and scale of the seismic activity. This will be a valuable tool in helping the audience to understand the details that this project contains. The maps and GIS will help with showing the place and space that the events have occurred, also adding to the visual representation. The map below is a visual map showing the seismic activity in Alaska from 2022:

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 9 The next map shows the seismic events in the Purcell Mountains area of Alaska over the last four years: Next is a map that shows the seismic activity for the largest earthquake strings in the last two years, showing 7/22/20, 10/19/20 and 7/29/21:

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Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 10 These maps come from the data that is provided from the data analysis from the government sources that have been previously discussed. IV. Conclusion The research that will be conducted as part of this project will be able to address the question of if seismic activity in a certain area can be used to determine and predict an upcoming volcanic eruption. Once this has been determined to a degree of certainty, there can be a system put in place to help with the prediction system that will include an advance warning system to those that live in that area. This will be a good method to potentially save lives. By using the research data to examine the seismic activity and compare it to the volcanic activity to find the correlation between the variables. This research will have a potential impact on those that live in the area of the active volcanos, the airlines that plan flights over the area and would have to divert flights or change flight plans in order to accommodate any eruptions that occur. This research could not only benefit the United States but also Canada and Russia, whose borders are in close proximity to Alaska. The research could be communicated to these groups through the USGS, news, or by presenting it through some scientific journals.

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 11 V. References Albright, J. A., Gregg, P. M., Lu, Z., & Freymueller, J. T. (2019). Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok, Alaska. Geophysical Research Letters , 46 (15), 8801–8808. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2019GL083395 Crosby, W. O. (1907). Volcanic Activity in Alaska. Science , 26 (655), 78. Dean, K. G., Engle, K., Groves, J., Dehn, J., & Partington, K. (2002). Analysis of surface processes using SAR data: Westdahl Volcano, Alaska. International Journal of Remote Sensing , 23 (21), 4529–4550. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1080/01431160110113953 Lally, K. F., Caplan, A. J., & Power, J. A. (2023). Volcanic and Tectonic Sources of Seismicity Near the Tanaga Volcanic Cluster, Alaska. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems: G3 , 24 (6), 1–19. https://doi-org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2023GC010891 Matoza, R. S., & Roman, D. C. (2022). One hundred years of advances in volcano seismology and acoustics. Bulletin of Volcanology , 84 (9), 1–49. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1007/s00445-022-01586-0 Miller, D., Bennington, N., Haney, M., Bedrosian, P., Key, K., Thurber, C., Hart, L., & Ohlendorf, S. (2020). Linking Magma Storage and Ascent to Eruption Volume and Composition at an Arc Caldera. Geophysical Research Letters , 47 (14), 1–9. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2020GL088122

Correlation between seismic and volcanic activity 12 Rondenay, S., Montési, L. G. J., & Abers, G. A. (2010). New geophysical insight into the origin of the Denali volcanic gap. Geophysical Journal International , 182 (2), 613–630. https://doi-org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04659.x Ruppert, N., & Grassi, B. (2023), 2022 Seismic activity year in review, Alaska Earthquake center https://earthquake.alaska.edu/2022-seismicity-year-review Song, Z., Tan, Y. J., & Roman, D. C. (2023). Deep Long‐Period Earthquakes at Akutan Volcano From 2005 to 2017 Better Track Magma Influxes Compared to Volcano‐ Tectonic Earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters , 50 (10), 1–12. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2022GL101987 Werner, C., Rasmussen, D. J., Plank, T., Kelly, P. J., Kern, C., Lopez, T., Gliss, J., Power, J. A., Roman, D. C., Izbekov, P., & Lyons, J. (2020). Linking Subsurface to Surface Using Gas Emission and Melt Inclusion Data at Mount Cleveland Volcano, Alaska. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems: G3 , 21 (7), 1–33. https://doi- org.ezproxy.snhu.edu/10.1029/2019GC008882 United States Geological Survey, (2023), Can earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions?, https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-earthquakes-trigger-volcanic-eruptions

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