Lab 7
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Oregon State University, Corvallis *
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Geography
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Apr 3, 2024
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docx
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Uploaded by loganrenee11
Week 7 Lab: Climate Change
http://gisclimatechange.ucar.edu/inspector
Large-scale climate change
Start by comparing the global patterns of temperature and precipitation changes for the different scenarios. °
1.
The temperature and precipitation anomalies change slightly, they do increase over the different RCP’s. The various RCP’s remained in the low orange for temperature and the light blue range with hints of yellow for precipitation. 2.
The northern part of the globe warmed more than others, especially the very top, which landed in the purple range showing a minimum of an 8 degrees Celsius increase. Right below the purple shows a deep red, which is a minimum of a 5-6 degree 3.
RCP 2.6 remains in the medium to high orange level of the scale. RCP 8.5
increases dramatically to deep red and deep purple levels of the scale, which is higher than the orange. You see a huge temperature jump for each one of the continents. 4.
There doesn’t appear to be too much change in the precipitation over the years at RCP 6.0. The middle of the globe is where the biggest change occurs, so South America, Africa, and above Australia areas have the highest amount of precipitation. Local temperature changes
1.
Record the city name, as well as latitude and longitude (see the captions under the trend and annual cycle plots to find these values).
Salisbury, Maryland. 38.361 degrees North, -75.559 degrees East.
2.
For the 2071-2090 period, record the annual average temperature change
[include units!] for
a.
RCP2.6 1.5 degrees C b.
RCP4.5 2.4 degrees C
c.
RCP6.0 2.7 degrees C
d.
RCP8.5 4.1 degrees C 3.
Calculate the difference in the change between
a.
RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 2.6 degrees C
b.
RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 .9 degrees C
c.
RCP6.0 and RCP2.6 1.2 degrees C
4.
Temperature change levels off around 1.5 degrees C
5.
The size of uncertainty is 0.7 degrees C and 2.6 degrees C.
6.
The uncertainty is, for the most part, about two times as larger as the average for the upper part of the uncertainty and half as small as the average for the lower part of the uncertainty.
7.
0.8 degrees Celsius
8.
0.6 degrees Celsius
9.
-Our use of emissions is very high and will take hundreds of years to correct. – greenhouse gases are steadily rising.
10.
RCP 4.5 and 8.0 increase the whole time period, while RCP 6.0 levels off near the very end.
11.
3.3 degrees C to 6.1 degrees C
12.
The ensemble of the average change is right in the middle of the low uncertainty and the high uncertainty.
13.Still using the RCP8.5 scenario, look at the “Annual Cycle” plot. (Note: you
can mouse over the months to see specific values.) By how much does the temperature change (from "Historical" to "Projected") during the warmest month of the year (e.g., August)? Graph was not available.
14.By how much does the temperature change during the coldest month of the year? Graph was not available 15.Does one month/season have a larger temperature change? Does this match your expectations? Graph was not available Local precipitation changes
16.For the 2071-2090 period, record the annual average precipitation change
[include units!] for
a. RCP2.6 2.4 in., 61mm
b. RCP4.5 4.0 in., 101.6 mm
c. RCP6.0 4.4 in., 111.8 mm
d. RCP8.5 5.3 in., 134.6 mm
17.
The precipitation change is largest for RCP8.5 and smallest for RCP2.6. RCP2.6 < RCP4.5 < RCP6.0 < RCP8.5
18.
RCP2.6 has a steady line that drops off near the end. RCP4.5 looks to become steady. RCP6.0 and RCP 8.5 have increases. The largest trend looks to be RCP 6.0 with a steeper increase. 19.
Minimum uncertainty of 0.9in., and 22.9mm, maximum uncertainty of 11.4in., and 289.6mm. 20.
The magnitude of ensemble average is right in the middle of the two uncertainties.
21.
The ensemble for temperature and precipitation are very similar, both have the ensemble average being roughly in the middle of the uncertainty.
22.
I am confident that there is a trend in precipitation. All the graphs were relatively close enough to convince me that there is an increase trend.
23.Look at the “Annual Cycle” plot. Start by describing the historical
annual cycle for your location. For example, which are the maximum and minimum months? What is the precipitation in the maximum month versus
the minimum month? Graph was not available.
24.In which months do you see a change in precipitation between the historical and RCP8.5 scenarios? How large are these changes? Do they tend to coincide with the months where you already get lots of precipitation? Or maybe the timing of the maximum or minimum changes?
Graph was not available. Final discussion questions
25.
The uncertainty depends on the time period because as time goes on, it is
expected, unfortunately, that greenhouse gases will increase and will lead to an increase in temperature. 26.
I have more confidence in temperature than precipitation. Temperature is more stable and easier to predict while precipitation fluctuates so easily it can change instantly.
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