Midterm
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School
University of Florida *
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Course
IDS2935
Subject
Geography
Date
Dec 6, 2023
Type
docx
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5
Uploaded by BarristerWolverine12
A)
1.
Describe the greenhouse effect caused by heteroatomic gases.
2.
Include in your answer the order of importance of the major greenhouse gases and list some of the major sources of emissions that are causing the concentration of CO
2
to rise.
3.
Describe the role of water vapor as a determinant of the temperature of the troposphere.
4.
Include a description of how air temperature affects drought and precipitation.
The greenhouse effect is a crucial element of our day-to-day life. This natural phenomenon consists of certain gases in our Earth's atmosphere trapping heat from the sun, leaving us with a warmer surface. Heteroatomic gases otherwise known as regular greenhouse gases are part of this phenomenon and contribute to the absorption of the sun's radiation. Ranking them from most important to least important, these gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and. Water vapor can be considered the most important since it is known to be the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor, also known as H2O is a natural component of the atmosphere as it is continuously being circled through by Earth's water cycle. Followed by Carbon dioxide, CO2, which is undoubtedly the second most abundant greenhouse gas. One of the major sources of emissions of CO2 is through the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and several industrial processes. Last, but not least, methane is another crucial greenhouse gas whose major sources of emissions include natural gas production, livestock digestion, and wetlands.
Water vapor plays a crucial role as a determinant of the temperature of the troposphere. This is due to water vapor being the most abundant greenhouse gas meaning it holds a higher power with respect to cause and effect. The higher the temperature of the water vapor being put out into the atmosphere, the warmer the troposphere, the lower layer of Earth's atmosphere, will be.
Air temperature plays a pivotal role in the patterns of drought and precipitation in our Earth. It is very much a cause-and-effect relationship. The warmer the temperature of our atmosphere, the more likely it is for there to be drought due to higher evaporation rates. Not only does a higher air temperature increase the frequency of droughts, but also its intensity. Similarly, air temperature can lead to more moisture in the atmosphere, which in turn, leads to more intense precipitation.
B)
Use the study by Dahl et al. (2019)
Links to an external site.
discussed in lecture as part of the Union of Concerned Scientists report on heat to:
1.
Describe how the Heat Index is expected to change under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2035-2065. 2.
Describe the concept of “no-analog” heat indices under these scenarios and how this is projected to change under each scenario.
3.
How does Florida compare to other regions of the United States?
4.
What is the role of the oceans in affecting the rate of atmospheric warming over the Florida peninsula? The Heat Index is expected to change under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by 2035-2065 in several
ways. The Heat Index is a "combined measure of temperature and relative humidity" (Kristina Dahl et al
2019 Environ. Res. Commun) that helps predict the extent to how warm it feels outside. Under both the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, which are both concentration pathways in climate modeling, the prediction ends up concluding that the heat index will increase. According to the report, "by 2035-2065 under both emissions scenarios, the annual numbers of days with heat indices exceeding 37.8 °C (100 °F) and 40.6 °C (105 °F) are projected to double and triple, respectively, compared to a 1971–
2000 baseline".
The concept of "no-analog" refers to "how often the conditions exceed the range of the current heat index formulation" (Kristina Dahl et al
2019 Environ. Res. Commun). This is
projected to change under each scenario since naturally the one with higher emissions, RCP8.5 in this case, will have a more crucial cause-and-effect relationship. In addition, the timeline in specific that we are basing it off has a say in how different the "no-analog"
numbers will end up being. For example, in the report, it is stated that "by late century (2070–2099) with a high emissions scenario, there are four-fold and eight-fold increases from late 20th century conditions in the annual numbers of days with heat indices exceeding 37.8 °C and 40.6 °C, respectively; 63% of the country would experience no analog conditions". It is important to take Florida's properties into consideration when compared to other regions of the United States. Florida is notoriously known for its vulnerability to extreme weather events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods to name a few. All of these extreme weather events have one thing in common and that is they are rooted in the effects of a warmer climate and thus the everlasting effect of climate change. Other regions of the United States that are higher up north for example, have it differently since they are not as closely affected by climate change as we are. We're the ones closest to the equator and thus naturally we experience the sunniest weather but add to that, the severity
of the warming of the planet. Oceans play a significant role in affecting the rate of atmospheric warming over the Florida peninsula. This is because not only do oceans act as carbon sinks, but also as heat sinks, meaning they absorb and store heat energy. With this, comes both a regulating and a worsening of atmospheric warming over the Florida peninsula. The Atlantic Ocean is the closest ocean to Florida and thus has the most influence on our climate. As the Atlantic Ocean's temperature gets warmer due to climate change, this can relay back to our atmosphere and in turn cause increased humidity and more intense precipitation and
storms, which all lead back to a more intense and more frequent pattern of extreme weather events over the Florida peninsula.
C)
Both mosquitos and ticks carry diseases that are likely to expand as climate heating unfolds.
1.
Describe the basic biological difference between mosquitos and ticks and how this affects their differences as disease vectors.
2.
Describe how the prevalence of dengue is likely to change in the U.S. over the next few decades.
3.
Describe how we expect Lyme Disease to change over the same period.
4.
Suggest a few ways that communities can protect themselves from these diseases. Mosquitos and ticks, though similar in a sense, are actually very different types of animals. Mosquitos are insects that primarily feed on blood. This feeding on blood is crucial for their reproduction stages. Through this transmission, mosquitos can transmit diseases to their hosts. The most commons ones include malaria, dengue, and Zika virus. On the other hand, ticks are parasitic arachnids, which means they are a part of the mites and spiders family. Ticks live a very long life compared to that of mosquitos which in turn causes them to have a higher number of diseases to transmit. Ticks can transmit diseases through a quick bite of their host. The most common diseases transferred from ticks are Lyme disease and anaplasmosis. The prevalence of dengue is likely to change in the U.S. over the next few decades in the sense of an increase of it due to climate change. The higher the temperatures in our climate, the more suitable the environment will be to host these mosquitos, which in turn,
means more transmissions of diseases and infections such as dengue. It is predicted that our climate will only get warmer and in just a few decades, temperatures will have increased significantly, at an approximation of 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060.
In this same timeframe, Lyme disease is expected to also increase due to higher temperatures in our atmosphere that lead to a wider range of ticks transmitting this disease. Furthermore, this could mean not only an increase in the frequency of the disease
being transmitted but also an increase in the demographic affected by it, such that many other regions of the US that aren't typically affected could fall under the impacted category.
With this in mind, there are a couple of ways that communities can protect themselves from these diseases. These include being cautious and wearing protective clothing when going outdoors. Similarly, being proactive and maximizing the use of tick and mosquito
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repellents when going outdoors and exposing both your skin and clothing. In addition, after a long field day or regular time spent outside, do a quick tick/mosquito check, meaning thoroughly checking your body, clothing, and pets. Last, but not least, staying aware and informed is critical. Before this class, I wouldn't have paid as much attention as I would now with respect to mosquitos and ticks. I am grateful that because of everything I've learned in this class, I know better than not to be cautious when going outdoors or be aware of the severity of climate change impacting our day-to-day lives in ways I've previously never thought about. Staying informed is key.
D)
1.
Describe how the AR6 Working Group II addresses the concept of maladaptation.
2.
Describe aspects of Florida's response to sea level rise and storm surge that are considered maladaptive.
3.
Describe the concept of strategic retreat as a means of coastal disaster risk reduction.
4.
Describe how this approach compares to resisting and accommodating expected coastal risks.
The AR6 Working Group II addresses the concept of maladaptation by putting a higher emphasis on not only adapting to the everlasting effects of the increased temperatures that climate change is leading to but also on avoiding taking action that will only lead to problems in the long run. This means, that there are some actions that have been or are currently being taken that can seen superficially as being a good mitigating source for the challenges of climate change, however, these actions are only leading to unintended harm. The AR6 Working Group II raises awareness of this problem and in turn opens the conversation of discussing maladaptation as it is occurring currently. For example, let's take a look at Florida's response to sea level rise and storm surge. Part of this response can be considered maladaptive since instead of only mitigating the problem, it is causing further harm to the planet. Florida's response to sea level rise and storm surge includes building more infrastructure. Florida, as with any other state, is constantly looking to create more coastal development. However, this is not a
solution to sea level rise and storm surge especially since we would be just creating more vulnerability to people and businesses that would reside in these low-lying coastal areas near the sea. In addition, instead of focusing on creating a more adequate infrastructure planning, we could be putting a higher emphasis on the security and resilience of the projects rather than the amount being built. This is a great example of maladaptation that Florida is currently experiencing. Strategic retreat, as a means of coastal disaster risk reduction, is an initiative that consists of focusing coastal development in more secure areas, rather than in high-
risk ones. With this strategic retreat, we can be assured that the right considerations and measures are being taken before developing any sort of infrastructure on any land
which should already be intuitive to do for any and every project, no matter the cost. Furthermore, this retreat also consists of relocating those priorly built projects in risky
areas to further mitigate the effects that climate change and its sea level rise and storm
surge can have on these.
This approach is more centered around building more resilient infrastructure that would create that risk reduction with respect to sea level rise and storm surge, rather than accommodating the expected coastal risks. Instead of maladapting to the risks, the Strategic Retreat looks to avoid the issue by prioritizing the relocation of people and infrastructure in high-risk areas. This is a more sustainable approach than resisting and accommodating since we would be combatting the problem before it even begins its effects.