MIDTERM QUEST
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Dec 6, 2023
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How have Atlantic cyclones changed as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change?
•Describe at least four ways that these storms have changed.
•Describe how the global frequency of cyclones has changed over the last century.
•How will Atlantic cyclones likely change in the future?
Climate change has seeped into every part of our world, especially natural disasters.
Since global warming has been increasing and by proxy, climate change itself is occurring on an
even larger scale, Atlantic cyclones have taken a turn. Already being rather frequent and
powerful, the warming of ocean water due to climate change has only morphed Atlantic cyclones
into an even more monstrous force.
One of the most obvious ways that these storms have changed is in frequency. Years ago
in 1992, there were only 10 total depression systems and only 6 named storms. This was the year
of Hurricane Andrew, which was utterly catastrophic. Fast forward to 2022, there were 14 named
storms with two majorly catastrophic storms (Friedlander, 2022). This emphasizes the idea that
over the last thirty years, these storm systems have become extremely frequent compared to
before. Another way that these cyclones have changed in their slow movement across the ocean.
Slower moving storms collect more energy as the water is warmer and allows the storm to suck
up more water, adding to its already strong forces. This points to the next idea that these storms
are becoming wider in range. These storms are spending more time on the water, gathering more
strength and becoming so large that they must also become wider, increasing its landfall range
and increasing damage levels. This also means that areas that previously were not experiencing
cyclones are in a threatened area and may not have the proper resources to be able to combat
these cyclones. Finally, storms are changing in precipitation levels. The atmosphere itself holds
much more moisture due to the warming climate and because of this, storm systems bring
damage, storm surge and flooding but intense levels of precipitation on top of this, further
exacerbating areas affected by these storms.
As referenced to above, major storm system frequency is only increasing. As Friedlander
published (referenced above), there were 14 named storms in the 2022 hurricane season, two of
them becoming major storms. These major cyclones were named Ian and Fiona and both were
category 4 Atlantic hurricanes. Ian was said to be one of the most damaging hurricanes and made
landfall twice on September 28 and September 30 (Friedlander, 2022). 30 years ago, this was
unheard of. Two major category 4 hurricanes in one season is unheard of and only points to the
idea that climate change is only continuing to worsen.
Looking ahead, the strength and frequency of Atlantic cyclones will only increase. Most
models predict not only more storms in general but also more Category 4 and 5 storms. The
magnitude of these storms can rip areas to shreds, sometimes so much so that the area will never
be able to recover. Coastal areas in Florida and other states can only take so much battering and
with the threat of increased strength and frequency, the outlook for some of these areas is bleak.
Not only is the threat of incredibly strong and frequent hurricanes looming but so is the threat of
a more volatile storm. These storms are likely to begin changing their tracks quickly and at a
moments notice. This puts communities at risk who are unprepared and also creates a problem of
wasted materials in the areas that the hurricanes shift away from. Lastly, another projection for
the future of cyclones is an increased intensification rate. This is truly one of the most dangerous
things as many communities may be only expecting a Category 2 or 3 which can quickly switch
to a Category 5, wiping out entire communities. This also is a major threat to residents lives
because they may stay in an area because they believe the storm to be a Category 2. If and when
it becomes a stronger storm, these people are in a position of their lives being at major risk as
there is no time to evacuate and the storm headed their direction is extremely deadly.
Overall, Atlantic cyclones have always been a force to reckon with. In these coming
years, the strength, frequency, range, precipitation level, and destruction level of these storms is
only going to level up. This puts so many coastal areas into increased danger. The increase in
these storms is a product of climate change and if greenhouse gas levels continue to rise, these
storms will only continue to increase and damage so many communities. Battling these storms
will be an uphill battle and the only way to fix it is to fix the damage we are doing to the Earth.
Describe the greenhouse effect caused by heteroatomic gases.
1.
Include in your answer the order of importance of the major greenhouse gases and
list some of the major sources of emissions that are causing the concentration of
CO2 to rise.
2.
Describe the role of water vapor as a determinant of the troposphere's temperature.
3.
Include a description of how air temperature affects drought and precipitation.
The greenhouse effect is an integral natural process that is supposed to help regulate the
Earth;s overall temperature by trapping heat in our atmosphere. It is caused by greenhouse gases
preventing some of the heat in the atmosphere from escaping into space. The heteroatomic gases
referenced in the question are adding to this effect but are not nearly as impactful as gasses such
as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) which are called homonuclear gasses.
The major greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are CO2, CH4, Water Vapor (H20),
Nitrous Oxide (N20), Ozone (O3) and other various small amounts of different gases. Their
amount is relative to their respective listed order. The major sources of emissions that are causing
the concentration of CO2 to rise is the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gases) as well as
deforestation and land change usage. As the world continues to innovate and change, the
environment takes a toll. The biggest energy source in the world is fossil fuels which contributes
to massive amounts of CO2 emissions. Everything from manufacturing to food production to
transportation is fueled by fossil fuels. The burning of these fossil fuels on such a large scale is
truly damaging the environment. On top of this, there is much deforestation occurring meaning
there are less and less trees that are able to take in the CO2 being emitted and turn it into oxygen,
only continuing to damage the environment.
Water vapor is crucial to the troposphere’s temperature. The amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere varies with the temperature of the atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms, it holds
more water vapor which furthers the greenhouse effect and traps heat in the troposphere. And on
the flip side, when the atmosphere cools water vapor turns into clouds which release
precipitation and heat in order to stabilize temperatures. Water vapor is a naturally occurring
greenhouse gas and is extremely important to the atmospheric function.
The temperature of the air is crucial to the presence of drought and precipitation. In
respect to drought, whenever the temperature of the atmosphere is warmer, there is increased
evaporation from bodies of water as well as the land. This can in turn lead to less moisture in the
ground for vegetation as well as other agriculture which can exacerbate drought conditions. Not
only does increased temperatures strip water from the landscape but it also increases the water
demand from humans. All and all, this becomes a lose lose situation. Another factor that is
affected by the temperature of the atmosphere is precipitation. The warmer the air is, the more
water it can hold and as a result, the more precipitation that may occur. On the other side of this,
the increased temperature can change the pattern of precipitation, causing downpours followed
by intense dry spells.
In conclusion, the greenhouse effect is driven by CO2, MH4 and water vapor and is
integral in the regulation of the Earth’s atmospheric temperature. These effects are seen in many
aspects of the environment but are prominent in drought and precipitation levels. This can in turn
negatively affect our environment, causing the damage of ecosystems and vegetation
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The paper by
Hsiang et al. (2017)
Links to an external site.
describes the manifold economic impacts of climate change regarding how heat will affect
several interacting systems. According to this analysis, Florida will be severely damaged by
the end of the century.
1.
Describe four of these factors.
2.
Why Florida might suffer more than other parts of the US.
Climate change’s intensiveness spreads into all aspects of the world as it is known. This
includes physical changes to the earth but also economic and demographic changes. Increasing
heat due to climate change also intensifies these shifts, leaving many areas at risk but others
more so than the rest.
Heat plays an integral role on the human body itself so when factoring in things like the
agriculture realm and the labor force, the outlook begins to look bleak. This paper predicts that
by 2080, the agricultural yield will reduce significantly as vegetation will be unable to prosper in
such a warm environment. A decrease in food supply only worsens many other conditions such
as the mortality rate. This paper also predicts that the mortality rate will increase by almost 40
percent by the time we reach the end of the century. Heat also increases the amount of energy we
use and the amount of demand placed on electric grids. The electricity demand is set to increase
rapidly at the end of the century, possibly to the point where it is no longer sustainable. And
finally, a fourth aspect affected by heat is the labor force. As temperature increases, people want
to work less and less, meaning that the necessary labor force decreases.
Florida may suffer from the economic impacts of climate change due to its geographical
position, its major money making industries, infrastructure costs, and agriculture yields. Florida’s
geographic location is prime for vacation spots. No other state has the same shape or climate that
Florida does, making it unique and also allowing for so much coastal line. This is an asset when
it comes to the tourism industry however makes Florida much more vulnerable to natural
disasters and sea level rise. This flows into the next economic impact Florida may suffer from
which is the destruction of its essential economy. Florida’s economy is entirely based on tourism
whether that be from Disney World, Universal, its gorgeous beaches or its hot topic destinations
like Miami. This is part of the reason there is no state income tax as there is so much money
generated from tourism. Climate change may bring this all to a halt because the areas Florida is
so proud of may be destroyed or simply become washed away due to natural disasters or sea
level rise. This plays into the next issue that is infrastructure costs. Since there is an increased
chance of natural disasters such as hurricanes and tropical storms, there must be infrastructure to
protect coastal areas from this but also infrastructure for residents to safely flee these threats. All
of these needs get costly and if Florida just has to continue to input these and then build them up
again when they get destroyed, it becomes sustainable especially if the state’s biggest money
makers no longer exist. And finally, agricultural yields become a concern. Florida is already a
warm climate, hence why the vegetation that is grown is mostly citrus and sugar. But there is a
point where not even these warm climate plants can withstand such heat and with Florida’s
proximity to the equator, heating occurs quicker than in some areas.
To summarize, this paper has some grim but realistic projections. Climate change is
taking a turn for the worst and without any attempts to aid the situation, areas like Florida may
become barren and damaged. The world as we know it and as our progeny knows it will be
permanently altered from climate change if nothing is done.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been used to project how the impacts of
climate heating will unfold over this century as a function of changes in the Earth System.
1.
Describe how the IAMs are assembled.
2.
Describe three major flaws in this approach to understanding the impacts of climate
change.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used to project how climate change will
ultimately affect Earth over the next century. These models combine information from many
scientific realms and combine them into a one singular model. This model is supposed to
accurately predict the progression of climate change in multiple facets.
One of the first pieces of information for these IAMs comes from climate models. This
entails examining weather patterns and warming over the past 100 or so years. These results and
the concentration levels of greenhouse gases are then used to predict the future climate
predictions. Another element of the IAMs comes from economic projections: how will the
economy be impacted by climate change? Things like the mortality rate, the labor force rate, and
the energy consumption rate are analyzed and used to predict what all of these rates will look like
when the Earth is hotter. This also includes an analysis of projected population growth,
technological advances, and our energy sources. All in all, these are used to predict the economic
state of the Earth in the coming decades and how current societies are projected to respond to
climate change. With analyzing how economies and societies will respond, it is also crucial to
analyze how ecosystems and environments will respond and how their depletion or increase will
affect the rest of the world. Finally, IAMs take into account policy creation and how and if
societies will implement things like emission reducing targets for renewable energy investments.
These things play a big role in the advancement of climate change and in turn are supremely
important to these projections as they could be make or break.
All projection models have flaws as the future is unpredictable. One of the flaws of the
IAMs is the oversimplification of such complex systems. In a perfect world, scientists would be
able to definitely predict how climate change is going to evolve. However, this is not reality and
there are millions of factors that affect how the Earth will look in 100 years. Because of this,
these models tend to oversimplify an extremely complex environment and may be providing less
than true results. Another fault of the IAMs is the discussion of climate feedbacks which
basically means the Earth’s basic response to major climate change effects. For example, the ice
in the Arctic absorbs solar radiation which speeds ice melt but also absorbs some of the heat in
our atmosphere. These sorts of situations can totally throw off a model's predictions. A final fault
of the IAMs is that these models are not proportionate to the globe. Some areas may be more
affected than others but the models generally summarize all areas which become untrue and
inaccurate.
To conclude, these projection models can be extremely helpful in getting a gist of where
the Earth may be in the next 30 years but also hold inaccuracies as there is no way to truly
predict the future. It is important to realize how these models hold real truths and should not be
written off and discarded simply because there is a delusion that they are wrong because they are
not 100 percent correct. These models must be taken seriously but also taken with a grain of salt.
Both mosquitos and ticks carry diseases that are likely to expand as climate heating
unfolds.
1.
Describe the basic biological difference between mosquitoes and ticks and how this
affects their differences as disease vectors.
2.
Describe how the prevalence of dengue is likely to change in the U.S. over the next
few decades.
3.
Describe how we expect Lyme disease to change over the same period.
4.
Suggest a few ways that communities can protect themselves from these diseases.
The threat of diseases expanding due to climate change is imminent. There is the concern
that the Arctic ice melting will release frozen viruses but the diseases mosquitoes and ticks carry
pose a larger threat. They are big disease carriers and have been responsible for pandemics in the
past.
Biologically, mosquitoes and ticks are quite different. Mosquitoes have six legs and long
needle like noses in which they use to feed on their victims. Mosquitoes have been responsible
for the spread of many intense diseases such as West Nile, malaria, and Zika, specifically female
mosquitoes. A mosquito infects based on one bite and uses their saliva to infect. Mosquito borne
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diseases also travel much faster than tick borne diseases which is due in part to their ability to
move quickly and in large groups. A tick on the other hand is related to spiders and other
arachnids. Ticks also have 4 legs and feed on their victims by attaching themselves through their
mouth. Ticks are responsible for spreading Lyme disease and other diseases and do not transmit
disease through one bite but through continued feeding over a longer period of time. Ticks also
depend on a suitable host for disease spread and really only exist in wooded areas opposed to
mosquitoes which really live anywhere.
Dengue is a disease spread by mosquitoes and its infection rate is likely to increase with
the increase of climate change. Dengue also may begin making its way into areas it previously
has not if climate change continues to increase. This may create hotspots in the United States for
dengue and create travel related cases, spreading it all over the nation.
Lyme disease is also expected to increase in prevalence due to climate change. A warmer
climate allows for a greater range of the black legged tick which is the vector for Lyme disease.
Increased numbers of these ticks, especially in areas where people are unaware they exist could
lead to spikes in individuals infected with Lyme disease. Warmer climates and temperatures also
may mean more mild winters for some areas meaning the time that ticks are active is prolonged,
allowing for even more opportunity for infection.
With this increased risk, it is extremely important for communities and individuals to
protect themselves from Lyme disease as well as mosquito borne diseases. This can be done by
wearing long sleeves, pants, and socks when traveling in wooded areas, wearing insect repellent,
having the government spray for mosquitoes, and having screens and bug zappers in order to
deter these insects from getting inside.
Mosquitoes and ticks are vectors for disease and climate change may increase their
ability to infect and spread disease. This calls for a need for preventive measures against these
insects spreading diseases as widespread disease could be catastrophic for communities,
especially in a period of extreme heat and drought.
1.
Describe how the AR6 Working Group II addresses the concept of maladaptation.
2.
Describe aspects of Florida's response to sea level rise and storm surge that are
considered maladaptive.
3.
Describe the concept of strategic retreat as a means of coastal disaster risk
reduction.
4.
How this approach compares to resisting and accommodating expected coastal
risks?
The AR6 working group is focused on the impacts of climate change and the adaptation
that is necessary in order to help Earth. The AR6 working group addresses maladaptation by
examining the consequences that result from adaptation strategies, whether inadvertent or
intentional. Maladaptation essentially boils down to when adaptation strategies fail to slow
climate change and in some instances, end up making it worse. This work group works to assess
the risks associated with maladaptation and then take that information to inform.
Florida is at extreme risk for sea level rise and storm surge due to its position as a
peninsula. Since this is the case, the government takes many steps to attempt to protect the land
and its residents from the damage. This may sometimes cause maladaptation. An example of this
is building sea walls and storm surge protection infrastructure. In theory, it should aid the issue
but can actually exacerbate it as it may damage nature’s natural defense against extreme weather
events. Another example of this is extracting groundwater. Again, in theory it should help with
the sea-water intrusion from rising seas but it can actually exacerbate land conditions and
increase the already vulnerable coastal areas.
Strategic retreat is a means of coastal disaster risk reduction that calls for organized
removal of human presence and infrastructure in high risk coastal areas. This is a practice that
takes into account risks which include the undeniable premise of sea level rise and due to that,
increasing weather risks. This process includes abandoning or relocating properties in a
controlled manner for safety precautions. Another way this occurs is through restoring naturally
occurring defense mechanisms such as wetlands and barrier islands as a way to put up a front
against these storms by letting nature do its thing.
On the flip side of this, there is resisting and accommodating which can be complex.
Resisting would entail building infrastructure like sea walls in order to defend against threats to
coastal communities. The issue with this becomes it is costly and needs constant upkeep if it is
continuously being battered on. Accommodating would include putting houses on stilts in order
to account for the flooding and storm surge or modifying current land usage to make it more
sustainable. All and all, there are some areas in which these strategies may work and some in
which it may be too far gone and too costly.
Overall, maladaptation is an issue that is often shoved to the side when talking about
coastal communities and deserves to be considered more seriously as it is a prevalent issue.
Saving our coastal communities is of utmost importance but sometimes putting that much money
and effort in is counterproductive.
Emissions from the food system may exceed 34% of global emissions.
1.
Describe how production and land use affect emissions from on the farm.
2.
Describe the major components of post-farm gate emissions and compare the pre-
and post-farm gate emissions quantities.
3.
Describe how the food system must change if we are to achieve 1.5˚C and 2.0˚C
targets.
4.
Briefly discuss how communities can do more to ensure local food supply.
Emissions from food systems are up to 34 percent of global emissions, which is an absurd
amount. This includes emissions from all aspects of food systems from production, distribution
and consumption. If there is any hope at all of preserving our world as it currently is,
restructuring our food systems to not emit nearly as many greenhouse gases is crucial.
Production of food in all aspects produces emissions. Certain fertilizers for crops produce
emissions as well as many livestock produce emissions. Even just switching the land use emits
CO2 into the atmosphere. The operation of machinery, transportation of food, and transportation
of materials to farms also add to the carbon footprint. These drivers are partially why the farming
industry is such a big carbon emitter.
Post farm gate emissions refer to the emissions produced after the food is created and
mainly include the transportation, processing, and distribution of food. This area of farm
emissions is huge because transportation alone produces so much carbon emissions as the
product has to be transported from the rural farm to possibly all over the country if not all over
the world. Post farm gate emissions also include the packaging made to hold the food and the
process of packaging it. Then after all that, the consumer still does not have the product so they
must use transportation to and from their supplier and then use energy at home to use said
product. This creates a lot of emissions, especially on a global scale. This leads to post farm gate
emissions to be traditionally higher than pre farm gate emissions as pre farm gate emissions just
include the agricultural practices and land usage.
Food systems must change drastically if we are to achieve 1.5º C and 2.0º C targets. This
would include the amount of food produced as so much of it goes to waste and then all the
energy going into producing it and all the emissions from that process were all for nothing.
Another aspect that absolutely must change is farming practices. Farming practices need to
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become more sustainable whether that be improving livestock management or just less livestock
all together or even reducing our chemical inputs. The promotion of a plant based diet would
also be effective at reducing farm emissions because livestock are a super carbon emitter.
Supporting local food supply is also a hot ticket item. This is extremely attainable and has
many benefits. One way this can be done is by encouraging farmers markets and local agriculture
production opposed to importing food. Another way to do this is by educating citizens and
raising awareness about the benefits of healthy eating and in turn, the benefits of eating locally.
To conclude, it is of crucial importance that our food systems be altered and adjusted as
they are a massive driver in carbon emissions. This can be a huge way to cut back on the Earth’s
overall greenhouse gases level, especially because food is prevalent globally. This is a problem
that is occurring all around the world and fixing something at such a large scale could be wildly
beneficial.
Use the study by
Dahl et al. (2019)
Links to an external site.
discussed in lecture as part of the Union of Concerned Scientists report on heat to:
1.
Describe how the Heat Index is expected to change under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by
2035-2065.
2.
Describe the concept of “no-analog” heat indices under these scenarios and how this is
projected to change under each scenario.
3.
How does Florida compare to other regions of the United States?
4.
What is the role of the oceans in affecting the rate of atmospheric warming over the
Florida peninsula?
The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is that RCP4.5 represents values as if global
emissions peaked by 2040 and then drastically declined, meaning actual work was put in to stop
the global emissions crisis. On the other hand, RCP8.5 is kind of a worst case scenario, which
plans for the highest emissions possible. Under RCP4.5, the heat index is projected to increase
but not increase nearly as much as under RCP8.5 under which heat waves will become much
more extreme as well as much more frequent.
No-analog conditions are conditions that are unprecedented or very rare in record. This in
short means that the heat and humidity combination has never occurred before or has very
solemnly occurred. In reference to this, under RCP4.5 these conditions may occur but will be
much less frequent and/or extreme than under RCP8.5. Under RCP8.5, there also may be a
genuine threat to human life as these conditions are unprecedented and a health hazard. These
conditions may cause heat stress as well as wipe out crops and may hold other effects.
Florida, per usual, is under a stronger influence of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under RCP4.5,
Florida may experience more frequent and intense heat waves but this will be nothing compared
to under RCP8.5. Under RCP8.5, the state may be unable to adapt and this kind of heat could
have severe implications for the state as a whole.
The ocean plays an integral role in the rate of atmospheric warming of Florida. For one,
the ocean absorbs and stores heat from the sun, which in turn may contribute to the warmth of
the atmosphere in Florida as it is surrounded by water. This goes hand in hand with increased
moisture in the atmosphere because more water is evaporated since the ocean is so warm. This
may contribute to more severe weather patterns such as hurricanes. Another role that is in effect
in Florida is the rising of sea levels. Since Florida lays so low, its flooding potential is
exacerbated and coastal heat stress also increases since it is so low to the sea level.