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Midterm BEHAVIORAL FINANCE (FIN 40690) Fall 2021  Time Allowed: 75 minutes  This is a closed-book exam. You must not consult, using electronic devices or otherwise, any information other than that given in the exam.  Please write your NAME at the END of the exam.  You are allowed to use a calculator to perform calculations.  Do not write everything you know about a topic in the hope that somewhere in your stream of thoughts you will hit on the right answer. Rambling, unfocused answers will receive little credit.

Each of the following multiple choice questions is worth 3 points 1) In class, we discussed “twin shares”, or shares that are claims to the same cash-flow stream. Consider twin shares in Company A and Company B. In a rational frictionless economy, Company A’s share price should be 1.5 times that of Company B’s share price. However, Company A’s share price currently equals Company B’s share price. Which of the following could be limits to an arbitrage long-short trade based on this mispricing (Please circle all answers that apply)? a) Transaction Costs b) Horizon risk c) Fundamental risk d) Noise trader risk e) Model risk A, B, D: Fundamental risk and model risk would not apply as the mispricing is clear. 95 % received full credit on this question 2) Assume market participants have motivated beliefs. All else equal, if long-term uncertainty increases, we might expect the equity term structure to become a) More downward sloping b) More upward sloping c) Not change A: With motivated beliefs, the degree of optimism tends to increase with uncertainty. Therefore, if long-term uncertainty increases, we would expect long-term optimism to increase which should increase the price of the long-term asset and lower expected returns. As such, the equity term structure should become more downward sloping. 58 % received full credit on this question 3) Assume that firm X borrowed at an annual interest rate of 10% when the fed funds rate was 5%. Assume that firm Y borrowed at an interest rate of 20% when the fed funds rate was 15%. Further assume that both borrowed from the same loan syndicate, the fed funds rate is now 10%, and both firms are again seeking a loan from the same loan syndicate. Which firm will likely see a bigger absolute deviation from their fair market rate when borrowing? a) Firm X b) Firm Y c) We should expect both firms to pay the fair market rate B: With anchoring, we would expect Firm X to pay a lower than fair market rate and Firm Y would pay a higher than fair market rate. From class discussions, we expect the lack of

adjustment to be greater when it benefits the lender. Therefore, we’d expect Firm Y to see a bigger absolute deviation from their fair market rate. 74 % received full credit on this question 4) Suppose we ask people the following question: “A bat and a ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs 1 dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?” Participants who answer 10 cents are: a) Likely to perform worse in experimental bubbles than the average participant. b) Likely to perform better in experimental bubbles than the average participant. A: This is a very common incorrect answer to a question on the CRT. Those who perform worse on the CRT tend to perform worse in bubble experiments. 94 % received full credit on this question 5) In the Opportunity Partners case, Goldstein preferred to target closed-end funds that a) Traded at a premium to NAV and had low institutional ownership b) Traded at a premium to NAV and had high concentrated institutional ownership c) Traded at a discount to NAV and had low institutional ownership d) Traded at a discount to NAV and had high concentrated institutional ownership D: They try to capture the discount to NAV. This is easier to accomplish when you only have to convince a few large shareholders to liquidate/convert to an open-ended mutual fund. 50 % received full credit on this question 6) 3 Com – Palm was an example of mispricing as the market value of Palm was less than the market value of its ownership stake in 3 COM. Important limits to arbitrage in this case were short sale constraints and horizon risk. a) True b) False B: The market value of 3COM was less than its ownership stake in 3COM. If you didn’t recognize this, you also could have noticed that horizon risk wasn’t an important limit to arbitrage here since there was a date in the future when shareholders of 3COM would receive shares of Palm. 71 % received full credit on this question 7) Consider an investor whose preferences are defined solely by realization utility and standard time discounting. Which asset will the investor find most desirable (all else equal)? a) A risky asset with a mean return of 4% and an annual volatility of 40%

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b) A risky asset with a mean return of 6% and an annual volatility of 40% c) A risky asset with a mean return of 4% and an annual volatility of 80% d) A risky asset with a mean return of 6% and an annual volatility of 80% D: Realization utility investors will prefer higher expected returns because they enjoy gains. More interestingly, they will also prefer higher volatility since they can delay realizing losses, and will not be affected much by the downside. 18 % received full credit on this question 8) A tender offer for stock X would typically be harmful for an investor who is short a large fraction of the outstanding float in stock X. a) True b) False A – Tenders are usually at a premium to the current market price. Everybody got this right. 9) The security market line is flatter than we would expect theoretically. a) True b) False A 96 % received full credit on this question 10) Which of the following long-short portfolios would have generated the highest returns historically? a) A portfolio that goes long stocks with low previous earnings announcement (EA) returns in the period right before the next earnings announcement (pre-EA window) and goes short stocks with high previous EA returns in the pre-EA window. b) A portfolio that goes long lottery-like stocks in the pre-EA window and goes short the market. c) A portfolio that goes long firms which have customers that have recently done poorly and goes short firms which have customers that have recently done well. B – We talked about how the lottery stock anomaly reverses in the period before the earnings announcement. 69 % received full credit on this question 11) How might we expect the closed-end fund discount to change after the closed-end fund sees a run-up in price? Assume that the distribution of the market is uncertain and individual investors are more subject to the law of small numbers than the representative investor in the market. a) We would expect the discount to shrink b) We would expect the discount to grow c) We would not expect any change in the discount

A - If the market is uncertain and individual investors are more subject to the law of small numbers than a representative investor, then they should extrapolate more than a representative investor. Therefore, after a run-up in price, individual investors will push up the price of the closed-end fund more so than the price of the underlying assets increase (individual investors are more likely to trade the CEF than the underlying assets). Therefore, we would expect the discount to shrink. 84 % received full credit on this question 12) Under the habit-formation framework, after an increase in the value of the stock market, expected returns in the stock market should a) Decrease b) Increase c) Remain unchanged A – market value goes up, people get wealthier, risk-aversion decreases, prices go up and expected returns go down. 68 % received full credit on this question 13) The exponential growth bias – discussed in the China microinsurance case - is _________ detrimental towards investor decision making when interest rates are low relative to when interest rates are high. a) More b) Less B – The bias will be less important – it will be associated with smaller deviations from the true value – when interests rates are low relative to when interest rates are high. 58 % received full credit on this question 14) In the Citigroup Exchange offer case, why would a common equity holder be in favor of the proposed deal? (Please select all that apply) a) In terms of market prices, it was a favorable deal for common shareholders b) It would decrease tangible common equity c) They wouldn’t need to worry about preferred share dividends C – Preferred shares would be converted to common equity as part of the deal. 49 % received full credit on this question Not covered in 2023 15) Suppose that stock in firm A has a ticker symbol KITE and stock in firm B has a ticker symbol TZKLR. Besides the ticker symbol, the stocks are identical – they have claims to the exact same cash flows (and the same proportion of the cash flows), and have the same voting rights. In a rational, frictionless economy, we’d expect the price of the two stocks to be equal. In the real world, we would expect the price of KITE to be ___________ the price of TZKLR. a) Greater than b) Less than

c) Equal to A – We discussed how people like things that are familiar and easier to process. KITE is clearly easier to process and more familiar than TZKLR. 86 % received full credit on this question 16) Consider a man at the craps table, who left the blackjack table a few minutes ago. Based on classroom discussion, it is likely that the man left the blackjack table with a) A gain – people have a stronger propensity to realize gains than to realize losses b) A loss – people have a stronger propensity to realize losses than to realize gains c) Unclear C – People are more keen to realize their gains, but not on reinvestment days. On reinvestment days, people don’t exhibit a clear disposition effect. This example offers a parallel of reinvestment days in the casino world. 83 % received full credit on this question 17) Stocks that analysts disagree about more have lower average returns a) True b) False A 61 % received full credit on this question 18) My friend once told me: “Please don’t use the phrase, ‘I’m dead serious.’ It depresses me as a Harry Potter fan.” 1 About a month later, I told him: “My uncle died. I’m quite upset.” He replied by saying: “Seriously?”. I adamantly said, “I’m dead serious.” He immediately lashed out, started crying, and called me an inconsiderate, selfish a**hole. This example most clearly highlights the a) Optimism bias b) Horizon bias c) Availability bias d) Fundamental attribution error D – he was attributing my mistake to my poor personality rather than to my current situation. 99 % received full credit on this question 19) Purchased shares sold at a loss by company insiders have more negative predictive power than received shares sold at a loss by company insiders. This is consistent with a cognitive dissonance- based explanation of the disposition effect. a) True b) False A – It is hard to admit that you made an investment mistake. 1 The character Sirius Black dies in the Harry Potter series.

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89 % received full credit on this question 20) Nicholas is a sports gambler. He estimates that he has a 60% chance of winning his spread bets in perpetuity. The casino where he places bets pays odds of 9:10 – you get 9 dollars net back after placing a winning 10 dollar bet - on these spread bets. Using the Kelly criterion as a guide, what percentage of his bankroll should he place on this game? a) Less than 10 percent b) [10%,20%] c) Greater than 20 percent d) The answer is unclear because the question does not provide enough information to apply Kelly criterion appropriately B: Kelly criterion= Expected net winnings/(Net winning if you win) = (.6*9+.4*(- 10))/9=1.4/9=0.15556 Kelly criterion applies because he thinks he’ll have a 60% chance of winning his spread bets in perpetuity. 56 % received full credit on this question 21) In Israel, a regulatory change prohibited the display of past fund returns for any period shorter than twelve months. In this setting, the information displayed was altered but the information households could access remained the same. (e.g. new annual returns each month can be used to back out past one-month returns). With prospect theory in mind, what would we expect to happen as a result of this regulatory change? a) Investors allocate more to risky funds b) Investors allocate less to risky funds c) Investors allocation to risky funds remains unchanged A – They will be less likely to see losses (and loss-aversion is a key feature of prospect theory) 94 % received full credit on this question Fill in the blank (5 points): 22) The five stages of a bubble are ____ displacement _____, _____ credit expansion _______, ___ euphoria ____, ___ critical stage/financial distress __, _ revulsion _____. 76 % received full credit on this question 23) People tend to invest in firms headquartered in their own country. This pattern of investor behavior is called the _____ home bias __________. 98 % received full credit on this question

24) The ___ rank effect ______ refers to the propensity of individuals to sell their extreme positions. 76 % received full credit on this question Please explain the following theory/concept from our psychology notes (10 points): 25) Availability Information that easily comes to mind can play an outsized role in decision- making/expectations formation. This can lead to thinking that unlikely events are more likely than they actually are. Please describe the following cross-sectional anomaly (including the trading strategy) and offer a psychological explanation (10 points): 26) Contrast effects anomaly Firms reporting earnings on day t after firms reported successful (unsuccessful) earnings on day t-1 have lower (higher) expected returns. We should long (short) firms that report earnings shortly after other firms report poor (good) earnings. One psychological explanation of this relates to relative thinking. Free response (various point totals) 27) Assume that Bovid-20 is an incredibly rare disease that is present in 1 out of every 100,000,000 humans. You are randomly selected to be tested for the disease. The test for the disease is 99.9% accurate. You test positive for the disease. What is the probability that you have the disease? ( 8 points)

P(A|B)=(P(B|A)*P(A))/P(B) A=Have the disease B= Test positive P(A)=1/100,000,000 P(B|A)=.999 P(B)=.999*(1/100,000,000)+.001*(99,999,999/100,000,000) P(A|B)= (.999*(1/100,000,000))/ (.999*(1/100,000,000)+.001*(99,999,999/100,000,000))=.00001 28) a) Write down an example of the game Lodden thinks. (4 points) b) Then, name the type of thinking relevant to the game that is also likely relevant in bubble formation. (4 points) Consider the example from class. One person, say person A, is asked how much money she would need to be paid to get a pikachu tattoo on her back. She writes down a number. Another person, say person B, would then suggest a guess of the number Person A wrote down. Person C would then say lower – in which case, we would compare person B’s number to the number person A wrote down, person C would win if the number is lower than person B’s guess, and person B would win if the suggestion is lower – or would suggest a new, but higher number. The process would then repeat. The type of thinking relevant to the game is theory of mind thinking. Think about what other people are thinking; theory of mind thinking which means you have to consider other people’s assumptions/valuations 29) After being asked to make a choice, people’s evaluation of their chosen alternative tends to improve and the evaluation of their rejected alternative tends to decline. This spreading of alternatives is seen as evidence for cognitive dissonance reduction. This behavior has even been detected in animals. Here’s an example of an experiment: Monkeys are shown many different types of M&Ms. Experimenters measure monkeys’ preferences by observing how quickly each monkey seeks out each color of M&M. After identifying three colors preferred about equally by a monkey (e.g. red, blue and green), the researchers give the monkeys a choice between two of the M&Ms (e.g. red vs. blue). If the monkey chose red over blue, he is next asked to choose between blue and green. Significantly

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more than half of the time, about 2/3rds of the time, the monkey rejects the blue M&M in favor of the green. a) Explain why psychologists may have interpreted this experiment as evidence for cognitive dissonance reduction. In your answer, you should clearly explain what cognitive dissonance is. (8 points) Cognitive dissonance refers to the discomfort people feel when they have inconsistent thoughts or feelings (or the state of having inconsistent feelings). It is often associated with manipulating beliefs or feelings in order to reduce inconsistent feelings. (This is cognitive dissonance reduction.) In this experiment, if the monkeys like each M&M equally, we would expect them to choose each M&M an equal percentage of the time (it should be essentially random chance). Therefore, we would expect monkeys to choose blue half the time and green half the time. Since the monkey chooses green 2/3rds of the time, this suggests that the monkey manipulates his beliefs such that they are consistent with his initial rejection of the blue M&M. b) There might be slight differences in monkey preferences that were indiscernible during the preliminary phase of the experiment. If there were tiny differences in monkey preferences explain why the “cognitive dissonance reduction” explanation is flawed. Your answer should apply to a situation where monkeys are randomly assigned a preference ranking of red, blue, and green M&Ms – you should explain why random preference rankings could generate the aforementioned empirical facts. For this question, you must explain your logic in detail. Logically correct answers that provide minimal explanation will get minimal credit. (12 points) If the monkey was randomly assigned a preference ranking, the possible rankings are (3!=6 possible rankings): R,G,B ; R, B, G; B,R,G; B,G,R; G,B,R; G, R, B Once the monkey reveals that R>B, we are left with only three possible preference rankings: R, G,B; R,B,G; G,R,B Of these permutations, 2/3 rd s are permutations that have G>B. Therefore, we are merely witnessing how probabilities can change with conditional information. (This problem echoes the Monty Hall problem we considered in class.)

30) Consider the following phrases from a research paper: “We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare.” “We next describe beliefs and behaviors among untested individuals. When asked about their chance of carrying the HD expansion, untested individuals report perceived probabilities which are much lower than their objective probabilities (determined by the investigator based on clinical signs). In many cases, the bias is extreme.” Please draw from our psychology toolbox, to briefly explain these results. Importantly, your answer should address two questions: a) Why don’t people get tested? (4 points) b) Why do untested individuals think their chance of having the disease is much lower than their objective probabilities? (4 points) There were many different answers that received full credit to this question. An example of an acceptable answer would be: People don’t get tested because they like the uncertainty of not knowing. It allows them to believe that their chances of having the disease are much lower than they actually are. Untested individuals think their chance of having the disease is much lower than it actually is perhaps because of motivated beliefs – they choose their beliefs to make themselves happiest. 31) It has been proved that “If rationality is common knowledge, risk-averse players should not make speculative bets with one another (unless they have hedging motives).” Of course, we see speculation in the real world. So, a natural question is: why do we see speculation? Is there a ton

of hedging? Do people get more pleasuring from watching a risky event unfold after betting on it (sports gambling)? Or is speculation due to limits on the knowledge of rationality? One experiment seeks to answer this question. In the experiment, there are four equally likely states, {A,B,C,D}. After the state is determined, players are privately informed about a set of possible states including the true one. Player I learns the state is either A or B (denoted (A,B)) or C or D (i.e., (C,D)). Player II learns the state with certainty if it is A , D, or (B,C). Players then decide whether or not to bet with payoffs given in the tables below. Specifically – if both players bet, they win or lose the amounts in the table column corresponding to the true state. If either player chooses not to bet, they both get zero. Data indicates the fraction of the type that bets given the signal received. The players know the payoff table, but don’t know the other player’s signal. What does this experiment tell us about the source of speculation? (Here details and a full explanation are desired. – 16 points) In this example, we should see only see betting by Player II when shown the signal state D if rationality is common knowledge (and even then player II will be indifferent in this state to betting or not betting). This is due to the following line of reasoning. Player II will never select bet if told that they’re in state A because the payoff is negative. Knowing this, player I should never select bet if told the state is (A or B) because state A will never be selected. Knowing this player II should never select (B or C) because B will never be bet by both players. Knowing this,

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player I should never select (C or D) because C will never be bet. Knowing this, player II should be indifferent to betting or not betting state D. This suggests that speculation is, at least in part, due to limits on the knowledge of rationality. Bonus: Please select a number in the set [0,100]. The winner of this game is the person who selects a number closest to ¾ of the average number selected. The winner will have 5 points added to their exam score. The closest number to ¾ of the average was 7.

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