MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS IN RETIREMENT PLANNING_5823
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MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS IN RETIREMENT PLANNING
Trine University
Finance 5823
Dr. Arlene Goodman
January 5, 2023
2
MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS IN RETIREMENT PLANNING
Monte Carlo Analysis is statistical technique that is done by running a financial model
multiple times with various of input to understand the possibility of outcomes. The use of Monte Carlo
Analysis in retirement planning can be a useful tool that people can implement to optimize their
retirement planning goals realistically. Often, people don’t fully take into account various uncertainties
that can influence the outcome of their retirements such as fees, volatility, and aggressive assumptions. By
using Monte Carlo Analysis, one can take into account for different unique situations to assess the most
optimal outcome for their retirement plan and goals.
As retirement is being planned, we often fail to include various factors that can take an
effect the outcome of planning. With Monte Carlo Analysis Simulation we are able to create the best
possible outcome with the current resource that we have to plan with. For example, while planning one’s
retirement plan it would be normal to include the total Retirement Saving plan, expected annual return,
annual rate, and lifespan horizon. But what failed to be included in the calculation are things like market
volatility, and Lifespan Planning Horizon (MRL).
By using Monte Carlo Analysis in retirement planning,
a more accurate representation of real-world factors can be included in its calculation.
Powell & Baker (2013) explained that using Monte Carlo Simulation in retirement
planning can provide a probability distribution that can be useful for extracting insight. With these
calculations in mind, a more realistic outcome for one’s retirement planning can be generated rather than
just using a base model that does not take into account additional elements. From the results of the Monte
Carlo Simulation, one can analyze the probability of each possible outcome and decide the best course of
action to take for a retirement plan.
Hence, when planning a retirement, it is so much more beneficial to apply Monte Carlo
Analysis to better represent a more realistic outcome in retirement planning where uncertainty is present
and a flexible approach is required. To Apply Monte Carlo in retirement planning is also to asset
3
outcomes in the best possible manner. This is why Monte Carlo Analysis is detrimental to retirement
planning
References
Powell & Baker (2013). Chapter 14 PowerPoint, Monte Carlo Simulation[PowerPoint slides], Wiley
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