Chapter 13 Class Activities - Solutions Unlocked

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Foundations of Block, Hirt, D Problem 13-1, 2 and 3 A $1,800 $900 B 2,000 1,400 C 1,500 500 Probabilities Low response 20 0.1 Moderate response 40 0.2 High response 65 0.4 Very high response 80 0.3 Acceptance Potential Probabilities Low 50 0.1 Moderate 70 0.4 Strong 90 0.2 Very strong. 140 0.3 Solution 1. Assume that you are risk adverse and have the follow coefficient of variation for each choice. Expected Value Standard Deviation 2. Pabst Dental Supplies is evaluating the introduction o of occurrence are given. Possible Market Reaction Sales in Units a. What is the expected value of unit sales for the ne b. What is the standard deviation of unit sales? 3. Northern Wind Power, a new age energy company, is use wind as an energy-producing device. The possible lev given. Sales in Units a. What is the expected value of unit sales for the ne b. What is the standard deviation of unit sales?
Problem 13-1, 2 and 3 Question 1 Solution: Compute the coefficient of variation for e Choices Expected Value Standard Deviation A $1,800 $900 B $2,000 $1,400 C $1,500 $500 Which project would you select? Reason for your decision Solution to Question 2a: Compute the expected value of unit sales for Possible Market Reaction Sales in Units Probabilities Low response 20 0.10 Moderate response 40 0.20 High response 65 0.40 Very high response 80 0.30 Solution to Question 2b: What is th D 20 60 -40 40 60 -20 65 60 5 80 60 20 1. Assume that you are risk adverse and have the follow coefficient of variation for each choice. Lowest risk as measu of variation 2. Pabst Dental Supplies is evaluating the introduction o of occurrence are given. ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ¯D=∑"DP"
Solution to Question 3a: Compute the expected value of unit sales for Acceptance Potential D P Low 50 0.10 Moderate 70 0.40 Strong 90 0.20 Very strong. 140 0.30 Solution to Question 3b: What is th D 50 93 -43 70 93 -23 90 93 -3 140 93 47 Sum -22 3. Northern Wind Power, a new age energy company, is use wind as an energy-producing device. The possible lev given. ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ¯D=∑"DP"
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Financial Management Danielson and Short: 12ce wing three choices. Which project would you select? Compute the of a new product. The possible levels of unit sales and the probabilities ew product? considering the introduction of a product intended to vels of unit sales and the probabilities of occurrence are ew product?
each choice. 0.50 Correct 0.70 Correct 0.33 Correct Project C Correct Correct r the new product? Expected sales 2 8 26 24 60 he standard deviation of unit sales? P 1,600 0.10 160 400 0.20 80 25 0.40 10 400 0.30 120 Sum 370 19.24 wing three choices. Which project would you select? Compute the Coefficient of Variation ured by coefficient of a new product. The possible levels of unit sales and the probabilities ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D)^2 P )
r the new product? DP 5 28 18 42 93 he standard deviation of unit sales? P 1,849 0.10 185 529 0.40 212 9 0.20 2 2,209 0.30 663 4,596 1 1,061 32.57 considering the introduction of a product intended to vels of unit sales and the probabilities of occurrence are ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D)^2 P )
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Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
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?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯D=∑"DP" 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D
?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯D=∑"DP" 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√
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D)^2 P )
√(∑▒ (D−¯D)^2 P )
Foundations o Block, Hir Problem 13 - 5, 6 and 7 Possible Outcomes Probabilities Ineffective campaign 80 0.3 Normal response 124 0.5 Extremely effective 340 0.2 Alternative A $1,000 $200 B 3,000 300 C 3,000 400 D 5,000 700 E 10,000 900 Rank the five alternatives from lowest risk to highest risk Solution Problem 13 - 5, 6 and 7 5. Sam Sung is evaluating a new advertising program tha probabilities of the outcomes are shown below. Compute t Additional Sales in Units 6. Five investment alternatives have the following return Returns: Expected Value Standard Deviation 7. In the previous problem, if you were to choose betwee variation? Why?
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Solution to Question 5 Step 1: Compute the Expected Possible Outcomes Probabilities Ineffective campaign 80 0.30 Normal response 124 0.50 Extremely effective 340 0.20 Solution to Question 5 Step 2: Wha D 80 154 -74 124 154 -30 340 154 186 Solution to Question 6 Rank the five alternatives from Alternative Standard Deviation A 1,000 200.00 B 3,000 300.00 C 3,000 400.00 D 5,000 700.00 E 10,000 900.00 5. Sam Sung is evaluating a new advertising program that outcomes are shown below. Compute the coefficient of var Additional Sales in Units 6. Five investment alternatives have the following returns alternatives from lowest risk to highest risk using the coeffi Returns: Expected Value ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ¯D=∑"DP"
No, because the expected value is the same (investment scale). 7. In the previous problem, if you were to choose betwe coefficient of variation? Why?
of Financial Management rt, Danielson and Short: 12ce using the coefficient of variation. at could increase electronic sales. Possible outcomes and the coefficient of variation. ns and standard deviations of returns. en Alternative B and C only, would you need to use the coefficient of
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d Returns Expected Returns 24.00 62.00 68.00 154.00 at is the standard deviation of unit sales? P 5,476 0.30 1,643 900 0.50 450 34,596 0.20 6,919 Sum 9,012 94.93 lowest risk to highest risk using the coefficient of variation. 0.20 E Correct 0.10 B Correct 0.13 C Correct 0.14 D Correct 0.09 A Correct t could increase electronic sales. Possible outcomes and probabilities of the riation. s and standard deviations of returns. Rank the five fficient of variation. Ranking from Lowest to Highest ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D)^2 P ) "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D
een Alternative B and C only, would you need to use the
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Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
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?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯D=∑"DP" 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝜎)=√(∑▒ (D−¯D ¯D=∑"DP"
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D)^2 P ) D)^2 P )
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Foundations of Fin Block, Hirt, Dani Problem 13 - 9 and 10 Year 1 180 54 3 240 104 6 300 166 9 400 260 Investments Buy stocks $7,000 $4,000 Buy bonds 5,000 1,560 Buy commodities 12,000 15,100 Buy options 8,000 8,850 Solution Problem 13 - 9 and 10 9. Digital Technology wishes to determine its coefficient of varia data (in millions of dollars). Profits: Expected Value Standard Deviation a. Compute the coefficient of variation (V) for each time perio b. Does the risk (V) appear to be increasing over a period of t 10. Ted Fears is highly risk adverse while Sonny Outlook actually en a. Which of the four investments should Tom choose and why? b. Which of the four investments should Sonny choose and wh Returns: Expected Value Standard Deviation
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Solution to Question 9a: Compute the coefficient of variation (V) for each Year Standard Deviation 1 180 54 3 240 104 6 300 166 9 400 260 Solution to Question 10: Compute the coefficient of variation (V) for each Investments Standard Deviation Buy stocks 7,000 4,000 Buy bonds 5,000 1,560 Buy commodities 12,000 15,100 Buy options 8,000 8,850 9a. Digital Technology wishes to determine its coefficient of variation as (in millions of dollars). Compute the coefficient of variation (V) for each Profits: Expected Value 9b. Does the risk (V) appear to be increasing over a period of time? If so, why might this Yes, the risk appears to be increasing over time. This may be related to the inability to make There is more uncertainty. 10. Ted Fears is highly risk adverse while Sonny Outlook actually en a. Which of the four investments should Tom choose and why? b. Which of the four investments should Sonny choose and wh Returns: Expected Value
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a. Which of the four investments should Tom choose and why? b. Which of the four investments should Sonny choose and why?
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nancial Management ielson and Short: 12ce ation as a company over time. The firm projects the following od. time? If so, why might this be the case? njoys taking a risk. ? hy?
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time period. 0.30 0.43 0.55 0.65 time period. 0.57 0.31 1.26 1.11 Investment Why s a company over time. The firm projects the following data h time period. be the case? e forecasts far into the future. njoys taking a risk. ? hy? "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D
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Buy bonds Has the least risk Correct Buy commodities Has the highest risk Correct
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Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
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Correct Correct
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¯D=∑"DP" ¯D=∑"DP" "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D
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Foundations of Block, Hirt Problem 13 - 12 Projects A $183,400 $96,600 B 471,800 282,100 C 61,600 D 87,500 144,900 Solution Problem 13 - 12 Solution to Question12: Compute the coefficient of variation (V) Projects Standard Deviation A $183,400 $96,600 B $471,800 $282,100 C $61,600 $75,600 12. Tomcat Oil Company was set up to take large risks an HiC Construction Company is more typical of the average c a. Which of the following four projects should Tomc b. Which of the following four projects should HiC C Returns: Expected Value Standard Deviation 75,600 12. Tomcat Oil Company was set up to take large risks a Construction Company is more typical of the average corpo (V) for each time period. Returns: Expected Value
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D $87,500 $144,900 Solutions for Questions 12 a. Which of the following four projects should Tomcat Oil Company choose and why? b. Which of the following four projects should HiC Construction Company choose and why?
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f Financial Management t, Danielson and Short: 12ce for each projects. 0.53 0.60 1.23 nd is willing to take the largest risk possible. corporation and is risk averse. cat Oil Company choose and why? Construction Company choose and why? and is willing to take the largest risk possible. HiC oration and is risk averse. Compute the coefficient of variation "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D
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1.66 2a and 12b Projects Why D Has the highest risk Correct A Has the least risk Correct
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Correct Correct Correct
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Correct Correct Correct
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"Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D "Coefficient of variation " (V)=𝜎/¯D
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¯D=∑"DP"
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Foundations of Financ Block, Hirt, Danielson a Problem 13-14 (LO 2, LO 3) Analyze investment risk Mary Beth Clothes is considering opening an additional suburban outlet. An after ta (expected value) is projected for each of the two locations being evaluated. Which of these sites would you select based on the distribution of these cash flows? variation as your measure of risk.) Site A Probability Cash Flows Probability 0.20 $50 0.10 0.30 100 0.20 0.30 110 0.40 0.20 135 0.20 0.10 Expected value $100 Expected value Solution Problem 13-14 (LO 2, LO 3) Complete the templates below. Site A Cash Flows Expected Value Deviation Squared Deviation $50 $100 -$50 $2,500 $100 $100 $0 $0 $110 $100 $10 $100 $135 $100 $35 $1,225
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Site A Cash Flows Expected Value Deviation Squared Deviation $20 $100 -$80 $6,400 $50 $100 -$50 $2,500 $100 $100 $0 $0 $150 $100 $50 $2,500 $180 $100 $80 $6,400 Which investment is preferred? Site A is the preferred site since it has the smallest coefficient of variation. Because same expected value, the standard deviation alone would have been enough for a d as profitable as B but with less risk.
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cial Management and Short: 12ce ax cash flow of $100 per day ? (Use the coefficient of Site B Cash Flows $20 50 100 150 180 $100 n Probability Product 0.20 $500 0.30 $0 0.30 $30 0.20 $245 Variance $775 Standard Deviation $27.84 Coefficient of variation 0.2784
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Probability Product 0.10 $640 0.20 $500 0.40 $0 0.20 $500 0.10 $640 Variance $2,280 Standard Deviation $47.75 Coefficient of variation 0.48 both alternatives have the decision. Site A will be just
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Foundations of Financial Managemen Block, Hirt, Danielson and Short: 12ce Problem 13-16 (LO 4) Analyze investment risk Western Dynamite Company is evaluating two methods of blowing up old buildings for comme the next five years. Method one (implosion) is relatively low in risk for this business and will ca discount rate. Method two (explosion) is less expensive to perform but more dangerous and w a higher discount rate of 15 percent. Either method will require an initial capital outlay of $100 from projected business over the next five years are given below. Which method should be sel net present value analysis? Years Product 1 Product 2 1 $25,000 $28,000 2 30,000 32,000 3 38,000 39,000 4 31,000 33,000 5 19,000 25,000 Solution Problem 13-16 (LO 4) Instructions Use the Excel NPV function to solve this problem. Product 1 Product 2 Discount rate 10% Discount rate 15% Year Inflows PV of Inflow Year Inflows Initial investment ($100,000) ($100,000) Initial investment ($100,000) 1 25,000 $22,727 1 28,000 2 30,000 24793.38843 2 32,000 3 38,000 28549.96243 3 39,000 4 31,000 21173.41712 4 33,000 5 19,000 11797.50514 5 25,000 NPV $9,042 $9,042 NPV $5,485 Which method should be selected? If the projects are mutually exclusive, select Method 1 because it has a larger NPV. If they are
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mutually exclusive select both projects due to positive NPV.
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nt ercial purposes over arry a 10 percent will call for 0,000. The inflows lected using not
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Foundations of Financia Block, Hirt, Danielson and Problem 13-18 Analyze investment risk Probability Cash Flow 0.2 $2,400 0.4 4,800 0.3 6,000 0.1 7,200 Solution Problem 13-18 Instructions Solution to Question 18a: What is the expected yearly cash flow? Cash Flow Probability $2,400 0.20 480 $4,800 0.40 1,920 $6,000 0.30 1,800 $7,200 0.10 720 4,920 1. Larry’s Athletic Lounge is considering an expansion pr sophistication of the exercise equipment. The equipment w estimated life of five years. Larry is not sure how many me attract, but he estimates that his increased annual cash flo will have the following probability distribution. Larry’s cost a. What is the expected cash flow? b. What are the expected NPV and IRR? c. Should Larry buy the new equipment? Expected Cash Flow ¯D=∑"DP "
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Initial Cash Outlay 20,000.00 Expected Yearly Cash Flow 4,920.00 Number of Years 5.00 Cost of Capital 14% Present Value of Inflow 16,891 Present value of Out Flow 20,000 Net Present Value -3,109 IRR 7.32% Solution to Question 18c: Should Larry buy the new eq Solution to Question 18b: What are the expected NPV and IRR? Larry should not buy this new equipment because the net present value is nega return is less than the cost of capital. The answer assumes that Larry’s probabil outcomes is accurate. "
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al Management d Short: 12ce Probability 0.3 $5,000 0.2 5,200 0.1 5,800 0.4 8,100 B 1,500 1,040 580 3,240 6,360 rogram to increase the will cost $20,000 and has an embers the new equipment will ows for each of the next five years t of capital is 14 percent. Cash Flow Expected Cashflow
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NPV 1,834 quipment? ative and the internal rate of lity distribution of the possible
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Foundations of Financial Manag Block, Hirt, Danielson and Short: 12ce Problem 13-19 (LO 4) Analyze an investment cash flows Silverado Mining Company is analyzing the purchase of two silver mines. Only one investment will be mad The Yukon mine will cost $2 million, which will produce $100 million per year in years 5 through 10 and $200 million per year in years 11 through 20. The produce $400,000 per year in Years 5 through 15 and $800,000 per year in Years 16 through 25. The Labrador mine will cost $2.4 million and will produce $300,000 per year for the next 25 years. The cost of capital is 10 per a. Which investment should be made? b. If the Yukon mine justifies an extra 4 percent premium over the normal cost of capital because of its riskiness and relative uncertainty of flows, does the investment decision change? Solution Problem 13-19 (LO 4) Instructions Use the Excel PV function to solve this problem. a. Which investment should be made? Yukon Mine Facts Initial cost $2,000,000 Cost of capital 10% Years 5-15 Cash flow per year $400,000 Solution: Yukon Mine NPV Present value of years 5-15 cash flows $1,526,116 Present value of years 16-25 cash flows $1,176,768 Present value of the cash flows $2,702,885 Initial investment $2,000,000 Net present value $702,885
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Labrador Facts Initial cost $2,400,000 Cost of capital 10% Years 1-25 cash flow $300,000 Labrador NPV Solutions Present value of cash flows $2,723,112 Initial investment $2,400,000 Net present value $323,112 Which investment should be made? Both projects have a positive NPV: therefore, both projects should be accepted. However, if the projects ar mutually exclusive, then select the Yukon mine with the higher NPV. b. If the Yukon project justifies an extra 4 percent premium over the normal cost of capital because of its r and relative uncertainty of flows, does the investment decision change? New Facts Discount rate $0 Initial cost $2,000,000 Cost of capital $0 Years 5-15 Cash flow per year $400,000 Solution Present value of years 5-15 cash flows $998,086 Present value of years 16-25 cash flows $493,423 Present value of the cash flows $1,491,509 Initial investment $2,000,000 Net present value -$508,491 Which investment should be made? Now the decision should be made to reject the purchase of the Yukon Mine and proceed with the Labrador smelter.
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gement de. rcent. Years 16-25 $800,000
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re riskiness Years 16-25 $800,000 r mine.
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Foundations o Block, Hi Problem 13 - 20 Windy Acres Hillcres Yearly aftertax Probability cash inflow $10,000 0.1 15,000.00 15,000 0.2 25,000.00 30,000 0.4 35,000.00 45,000 0.2 45,000.00 50,000 0.1 Solution Problem 13 - 20 Solution to Question 20a: C 20. Mr. John Backster, a retired executive, desires to inve two apartment complexes, Windy Acres and Hillcrest Apar Yearly aftertax cash inflow a. Find the expected value of the cash flow for each a b. What is the coeffi c. Which apartment complex has more risk?
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Windy Acres Cash Flow (D) Probability (P) $10,000 0.1 1,000.00 $15,000 0.2 3,000.00 $30,000 0.4 12,000.00 $45,000 0.2 9,000.00 $50,000 0.1 5,000.00 Wxpected cash Flow 30,000 Solution to Question 20b: Standard Devia D 10,000 30,000 -20,000 15,000 30,000 -15,000 30,000 30,000 0 45,000 30,000 15,000 50,000 30,000 20,000 Solution to Question 20b: Standard Deviat D 15,000 29,000 -14,000 25,000 29,000 -4,000 35,000 29,000 6,000 45,000 29,000 16,000 Expected Cash Flow (DP) ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ¯𝐃=∑"DP" ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅
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Based on the coefficient of variation, Windy Acres has more risk (0.4347 vs. 0. 20c. Which apartment complex has more risk?
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of Financial Management irt, Danielson and Short: 12ce st Apartments Probability 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.10 Compute the Expected Cash Flow est a portion of his assets in rental property. He has narrowed his choices to rtments. The anticipated annual cash inflows from each are as follows:
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Hilcrest Cash Flow (D) Probability (P) $15,000 0.2 3,000.00 Correct $25,000 0.3 7,500.00 Correct $35,000 0.4 14,000.00 Correct $45,000 0.1 4,500.00 Correct Expected cash Flow 29,000.00 Correct ation and Covecient of Variation for Windy Acres P 400,000,000 0.10 40,000,000 225,000,000 0.20 45,000,000 0 0.40 0 225,000,000 0.20 45,000,000 400,000,000 0.10 40,000,000 170,000,000 13,038.40 Coeeficient of Variation 0.43461 tion and Covecient of Variation for Hilcrest Acres P 196,000,000 0.20 39,200,000 16,000,000 0.30 4,800,000 36,000,000 0.40 14,400,000 256,000,000 0.10 25,600,000 Expected Cash Flow (DP) ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒= (D−¯D)^2 P ¯𝐃=∑"DP" 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D−¯D)^2 P ) ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P
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84,000,000 9,165.15 Coeeficient of Variation 0.31604 .3162). 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒= (D−¯D)^2 P 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D−¯D)^2 P )
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Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
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Correct Correct Correct
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?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯D=∑"DP" ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯𝐃=∑"DP" ¯𝐃=∑"DP" 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P
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𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D
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D−¯D)^2 P )
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𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒= (D−¯D)^2 P D−¯D)^2 P )
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Foundations of Block, Hirt, Problem 13 - 22 Enter New Coat Market Expected Sales Probability Fantastic 0.4 $240,000 Moderate 0.2 180,000 Dismal 0.4 0 Solution Problem 13 - 22 Enter New C 1. Wardrobe Clothing Manufacturers is preparing a strategy fo imaginative, new, four-gold-button sports coat. The all-wool pro option would be to produce a traditional blue blazer line. The m gold-button and traditional blue blazer lines offer the following Present Value of Cash Flows from Sales The initial cost to get into the new coat line is $100,000 in desig the initial cost in designs, inventory, and equipment is $60,000. a. Diagram a complete decision tree of the possible outcomes s the process of computing expected NPV for each investment. b. Given the analysis in part a , would you automatically make t
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Cash Flow (D) Probability (P) Fantastic 0.4 $240,000 Moderate 0.2 $180,000 Dismal 0.4 $0 Enter Blue Bl Cash Flow (D) Probability (P) Fantastic 0.20 120,000 Moderate 0.60 75,000 Dismal 0.20 55,000 Present Value of Cash Flows from Sales Present Value of Cash Flows from Sales 22b. Given the analysis in part a, would you automatically mak b. The indicated investment, based on the expected NPV, is in the new coat market. analysis may be necessary. It is not an automatic decision.
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f Financial Management Danielson and Short: 12ce Enter Blue Blazer Market Probability 0.2 $120,000 0.6 75,000 0.2 55,000 Coat Market or the fall season. One strategy is to go to a highly oduct would be available for males and females. A second marketing research department has determined that the four- probabilities of outcomes and related cash flows: Present Value of Cash Flows from Sales gns, equipment, and inventory. To enter the blue blazer line similar to Figure 13–8. Take the analysis all the way through the investment indicated?
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Initial Cost Net Cash Flow Expected NPV $100,000 140,000.0 56,000.00 $100,000 80,000.0 16,000.00 $100,000 -100,000.0 -40,000.00 32,000.00 lazer Market Initial Cost Net Cash Flow Expected NPV 60,000 60,000.00 12,000 60,000 15,000.00 9,000 60,000 -5,000.00 -1,000 20,000 ke the investment indicated? . However, there is more risk in this alternative so further ¯𝐃=∑"DP" ¯𝐃=∑"DP"
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Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct Correct
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¯𝐃=∑"DP" ¯𝐃=∑"DP"
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Foundations of Financial M Block, Hirt, Danielson and Short: Problem 13-24 (LO 3, LO 4) Analyze investment risk over time The Caribou Pipeline Corporation projects a pattern of inflows from the investment shown The inflows are spread over time to reflect delayed benefits. Each year is independent of Year 1 Year 5 Probability Cash Flows Probability Cash Flows 0.20 $65 0.25 $50 0.60 80 0.50 80 0.20 95 0.25 110 Expected value $80 Expected value $80 The expected value for all three years is $80. a. Compute the standard deviation for each of the three years. b. Diagram the expected values and standard deviations for each of the three years in a m c. Assuming a 6 percent and a 12 percent discount rate, complete the table for present v Year Difference 1 0.943 0.893 0.05 5 * * * 10 * * * e. Assume the intial investment is $135. What is the net present value of the expected va at a 12 percent discount rate? Should the investment be accepted? Solution Problem 13-24 (LO 3, LO 4) Instructions Complete the templates below. PV IF (6%) PV IF (12%) d. Is the increasing risk over time, as diagrammed in part b, consistent with the larger diff time, as computed in part c ?
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a. Compute the standard deviation for each of the three years. Year 1 Cash Flows Deviation Probability $65 $80 -$15 $225 0.20 $80 $80 $0 $0 0.60 $95 $80 $15 $225 0.20 Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of variation Year 5 Cash Flows Deviation Probability $50 $80 -$30 $900 0.25 $80 $80 $0 $0 0.50 $110 $80 $30 $900 0.25 Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of variation Year 10 Cash Flows Deviation Probability $40 $80 -$40 $1,600 0.30 $80 $80 $0 $0 0.40 $120 $80 $40 $1,600 0.30 Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of variation b. Diagram the expected values and standard deviations for each of the three years in a m Expected Value Squared Deviation Expected Value Squared Deviation Expected Value Squared Deviation Risk over time Expected cash flow Expected cash flow
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c. Assuming a 5 percent and a 10 percent discount rate, complete the table for present v Year Difference 1 0.943 0.893 0.050 5 0.747 0.567 0.180 10 0.558 0.322 0.236 the consequences of using progressively higher discount rates to penalize for risk. e. Assume the initial investment is $110. What is the net present value of the expected v at a 10 percent discount rate? Should the investment be accepted? Year Inflow 1 $80 $71.4 5 $80 $45.4 10 $80 $25.8 PV of inflows $142.6 Investment -$135.0 NPV $7.6 Decision: Accept the investment. PV IF (6%) PV IF (12%) d. Is the increasing risk over time, as diagrammed in part b, consistent with the larger diff time as computed in part c . Yes. The larger risk over time is consistent with the larger differences in the present value time. In effect, future uncertainty is being penalized by a lower present value interest fac Present value @12% Time
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Management : 12ce n in the following table. f the others. Year 10 Probability Cash Flows 0.30 $40 0.40 80 0.30 120 Expected value $80 manner similar to Figure 13-6. value factors. alues of $80 for the investment ferences in PV IF s over
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Product $45 $0 $45 $90 $9 0.1186 Product $225 $0 $225 $450 $21 0.2652 Product $480 $0 $480 $960 $31 0.3873 manner similar to Figure 13-6. $60 $120 $ Dollars
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value factors. values of $60 for the investment ferences in PV IF s over e factors ( PV IF s ) over ctor ( PV IF ). This is one of $0
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Foundations of Financial M Block, Hirt, Danielson and Shor Problem 13 - 27 Probability Recession $30 0.3 Normal economy 50 0.4 Strong economy 70 0.3 After the acquisition the expected outcomes for the firm would be Probability Recession $10 0.3 Normal economy 50 0.4 Strong economy 100 0.3 After the acquisition these values are as follows: Expected value 53.0 ($ millions) Standard deviation 34.9 ($ millions) Coefficient of variation 0.658 i.Major travel agency ii.Oil company iii.Gambling casino 25. Transoceanic Airlines is examining a resort motel chain to add t acquisition, the normal expected outcomes for the firm were as follows Outcomes ($ millions) Outcomes ($ millions) a. Compute the expected value, standard deviation, and coefficient b. Comment on whether this acquisition appears desirable to you. c. Do you think the firm’s share price is likely to go up as a result of d. If the firm was interested in reducing its risk exposure, which of t would you advise it to consider for an acquisition? Briefly comment o
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Solution Problem 13 - 27 D P DP Recession 30.0 0.3 9.0 Normal economy 50.0 0.4 20.0 Strong economy 70.0 0.3 21.0 50.0 Solution to Question 27: Standard Deviation and Covecient of D Recession 30 -20 400 Normal economy 50 0 0 Strong economy 70 20 400 Coeeficien After the Acquisition Expected Value 53.0 ($ millions) Standard Deviation 34.9 ($ millions) a. Compute the expected value, standard deviation, and coefficient 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒= S 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( P ) ¯𝐃=∑"DP"
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Coefficient of Variation 0.658 b. Comment on whether this acquisition appears desirable to you. Not desirable. Although the expected value is $3 million higher, the coefficient of variation is m high (.658 vs. 310). The slightly added return probably does not adequately compensate for the c. Do you think the firm’s share price is likely to go up as a result of thi Probably not. There may be a higher discount rate applied to the firm's earnings to compensate risk. The share price may actually go down. d. If the firm was interested in reducing its risk exposure, which of the three industries would you advise it to consider for an acquisition? Brie on your answer. The oil company may provide the best diversification benefits. The performance of oil companie tend to go in opposite directions. If oil prices are high, oil companies’ benefit, but airlines are hu effect is true when oil prices are low. A major travel agency or gambling casino would probably in the way of risk reduction benefits. They are both closely associated with entertainment and t
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Management rt: 12ce to its operations. Before the s: of variation before the acquisition. f this acquisition? the following three industries on your answer.
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Correct Correct Correct Correct f Variation P 0.30 120 Correct 0.40 0 Correct 0.30 120 Correct 240 Correct 15.49 Correct nt of Variation (V) 0.30984 Correct Correct Correct of variation before the acquisition. ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P = (D−¯D)^2 P (D−¯D)^2
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Correct more than twice as e added risk. is acquisition? e for the additional e following efly comment es and airlines urt. The opposite not provide much travel.
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?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P ¯D=∑"DP" ?  ̅ 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D−¯D)^2 P ) 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 ( 𝐷−𝐷  ̅ )^2 x P S 𝑡𝑎𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖 𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎=√( (D −¯D)^ 2 P ) ¯𝐃=∑"DP"
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Foundations of Financial M Block, Hirt, Danielson and Shor Problem 13-33 (LO 6) Analyze investment alternatives based on probabilities Ace Trucking Company is considering buying 50 new diesel trucks that are 15 percent mor the ones the firm is now using. Mr. King, the president, has found that the company uses a litres of diesel fuel per year at a price of $1.08 per litre. If he can cut fuel consumption by he will save $4,860,000 per year. Mr. King assumes that the price of diesel fuel is an external market force he cannot contro costs of fuel will be passed on to the shipper through higher rates. If this is true, then he w money as the price of diesel fuel rises (at $1.215 per litre, he would save $5,467,500 in to trucks). Mr. King has come up with two possible forecasts as shown below - each of which he belie 50 percent chance of coming true. Under assumption one, diesel prices will stay relatively assumption two, diesel prices will rise considerably. Fifty new trucks will cost Ace Trucking $13.25 million. They will qualify for a 30 percent CC rate of 30 percent and a cost of capital of 11 percent. a. First compute the yearly expected cost of diesel fuel for both assumption one (relatively assumption two (high prices) from the forecasts below. Forecast for assumption one: Price of Diesel Fuel per Litre Probability Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 0.10 $0.68 $0.81 $0.95 0.20 0.81 0.95 1.08 0.30 0.95 1.08 1.22 0.20 1.08 1.22 1.35 0.20 1.22 1.34 1.49 Forecast for assumption two: Price of Diesel Fuel per Litre Probability Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 0.10 $1.22 $1.35 $1.76 0.30 1.35 1.49 2.03 0.40 1.76 2.03 2.43
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0.20 2.03 2.30 2.70 b. What will be the dollar savings in diesel expenses each year for assumption one and for c. Find the increased cash flow after taxes for both forecasts. d. Compute the net present value of the truck purchases for each fuel forecast assumptio net present (that is, weigh the NPVs by .5). e. If you were Mr. King, would you go ahead with this capital investment? f. How sensitive to fuel prices is this capital investment? Solution Problem 13-33 (LO 6) Instructions Using the various templates setup for each part, enter formulas and cell references to solv a. Using the template below, compute the yearly expected cost of diesel fuel for both assu low prices) and assumption two (high prices). Assumption 1 Price of Diesel Fuel per Litre Probability Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 0.10 $0.68 $0.81 $0.95 0.20 $0.81 $0.95 $1.08 0.30 $0.95 $1.08 $1.22 0.20 $1.08 $1.22 $1.35 0.20 $1.22 $1.35 $1.49 Expected Values (Cost) Assumption 2 Price of Diesel Fuel per Gallon Probability Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 0.10 $1.22 $1.35 $1.76 0.30 $1.35 $1.49 $2.03 0.40 $1.76 $2.03 $2.43 0.20 $2.03 $2.30 $2.70 Expected Values (Cost) b. What will be the dollar savings in diesel expenses each year for assumption one and for
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Assumption 1 Years Expected Cost Cost 1 $0.975 30,000,000 $29,250,000 2 $1.109 30,000,000 $33,270,000 3 $1.245 30,000,000 $37,350,000 Assumption 2 Years Expected Cost Cost 1 $1.637 30,000,000 $49,110,000 2 $1.854 30,000,000 $55,620,000 3 $2.297 30,000,000 $68,910,000 c. Find the increased cash flow aftertaxes for both forecasts. Step 1: Calculate annual CCA (amortization) Years % UCC of Trucks Annual CCA 1 15% $13,250,000 $1,987,500 2 30% $11,262,500 $3,378,750 3 30% $7,883,750 $2,365,125 Step 2: Calculate increased cash flow for each alternative Assumption 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Increase in EBDT $4,387,500 $4,990,500 $5,602,500 CCA $1,987,500 $3,378,750 $2,365,125 Increase in EBT $2,400,000 $1,611,750 $3,237,375 Taxes $720,000 $483,525 $971,213 Increase in EAT $1,680,000 $1,128,225 $2,266,163 CCA $1,987,500 $3,378,750 $2,365,125 Increased Cash Flow $3,667,500 $4,506,975 $4,631,288 Assumption 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Increase in EBDT $7,366,500 $8,343,000 $10,336,500 CCA $1,987,500 $3,378,750 $2,365,125 Increase in EBT $5,379,000 $4,964,250 $7,971,375 Taxes $1,613,700 $1,489,275 $2,391,413 Increase in EAT $3,765,300 $3,474,975 $5,579,963 CCA $1,987,500 $3,378,750 $2,365,125 Increased Cash Flow $5,752,800 $6,853,725 $7,945,088 # of Litres Without Efficiency # of Litres Without Efficiency
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d. Compute the net present value of the truck purchases for each fuel forecast assumptio net present (that is, weigh the NPVs by .5). Discount rate 11% Cost of trucks $13,250,000 Weights Expected Outcome NPV Assumption 1 -$2,901,626 50% -$1,450,813 NPV Assumption 2 $3,304,719 50% $1,652,360 $201,546 e. If you were Mr. King, would you go ahead with this capital investment? Yes - the combined expected value of the outcomes is positive. f. How sensitive to fuel prices is this capital investment? Quite sensitive when that many litres are used per year.
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Management rt: 12ce re fuel-efficient than an average 30 million 15 percent, ol and any increased would save more otal if he buys the new eves has about a y low; under CA. The firm has a tax y low prices) and
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r assumption two? on and the combined ve the problem. umption one (relatively Expected Values Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 $0.068 $0.081 $0.095 $0.162 $0.190 $0.216 $0.285 $0.324 $0.366 $0.216 $0.244 $0.270 $0.244 $0.270 $0.298 $0.975 $1.109 $1.245 Expected Values Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 $0.122 $0.135 $0.176 $0.405 $0.447 $0.609 $0.704 $0.812 $0.972 $0.406 $0.460 $0.540 $1.637 $1.854 $2.297 r assumption two?
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15% $4,387,500 15% $4,990,500 15% $5,602,500 15% $7,366,500 15% $8,343,000 15% $10,336,500 % of Savings With Efficiency Total Dollar Saved % of Savings With Efficiency Total Dollar Saved
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on and the combined e
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