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Apr 3, 2024

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Valuation Spring 2023 °±667y 8 2023 ²//0r,,-o##$f!""#e001s001s,,-o//0r. ³001s445w±112t%%&h ´±**+m,,-o !!"d±//0r±++,n Analyst Company Last Price Intrinsic Valuation Regressed Pricing Median Pricing Recommendation Bernard Kuperman FLRY± R²³´µ¶³ R²´µ·³ R²¸¸µ³¹ R²¸¸µ´º Sell Alan Lee PVH ²¶±µº³ ² µ» ²³¹±µ´ ²³´´µ¸¹ Buy Samuel Reyes PSA ²¸ ´µ ³ ²³º¶µ· ²± ³µ³± ²±¸¸µ´´ Sell Mohak Saxena MA ²±¶¹µºº ²³¶´µ ´ ²¸±³µ·± ²¸± µ ± Sell
Grupo Fleury - Pricing µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 2 ·,,-o**+m--.p±++,n667y ´!""#e001s¶//0r&&'i--.p112t&&'i,,-o++,n ¸&&'i001s112t,,-o//0r&&'i¶±))*l ¹112t,,-o¶(()k ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e º++,n334v!""#e001s112t**+m!""#e++,n112t ²//0r,,-o##$f&&'i))*l!""#e º++,n !!"d223u001s112t//0r667y °±//0r(()k!""#e112t ¹%%&h±//0r!""#e 0+OLXU\ =8:±+±² WRJLWKLU ZLWK LWV VXIVLKLHULLV² SURYLKLV PLKLJHO VLUYLJLV LQ WKL KLHJQRVWLJ² WULHWPLQW² JOLQLJHO HQHO\VLV² KLHOWK PHQHJLPLQW² PLKLJHO JHUL² RUWKRSLKLJV² HQK RSKWKHOPRORJ\ HULHV LQ ,'UH]LO± >9;KL JRPSHQ\ RSLUHWLV WKURXJK WKULL VLJPLQWV)$ .)LHJQRVWLJ 724LKLJLQL² 3.0QWLJUHWLK 724LKLJLQL² HQK .)LQWHO± 5ecommendation! Sell +air 9alue! R ²´µ·³ -eadquartered! São Paulo¼SP½ Brazil 5egression 3ricing! R²¸¸µ³¹ »±001s!""#e !!"d,,-o++,n &&'i++,n112t//0r&&'i++,n001s&&'i¶ 334v±))*l223u±112t&&'i,,-o++,n, 112t%%&h!""#e //0r!""#e¶,,-o**+m**+m!""#e++,n !!"d±112t&&'i,,-o++,n 112t,,-o 001s!""#e))*l))*l. ¼334v!""#e++,n &&'i##$f --.p//0r&&'i¶&&'i++,n$$%g 001s223u$$%g$$%g!""#e001s112t001s ,,-o112t%%&h!""#e//0r445w&&'i001s!""#e, µ½¾¿3 ,,-o!""#e001s 001s!""#e!""#e**+m 112t,,-o %%&h±334v!""#e 001s112t//0r,,-o++,n$$%g ¶±001s%%&h ##$f))*l,,-o445w001s 112t,,-o ''(j223u001s112t&&'i##$f667y ± À223u667y.
µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 3 Grupo Fleury - Story to numbers *ven though +leury is a mildly profitable company° ,t’s reinvestment rate does not make sense with such high cost of capital 6ince +leury’s operations are in ''razil° with high interest rates° +leury’s cost of capital is ±²³´µ¶° , expect it to decrease to ±±³ ²° due to a future reduction in interest rates° but ultimately resulting still in a :&&&(((( higher than 52,(( +leury’s margins won’t tend to improve° since the businesses they are acquiring are already consolidated° no gains of efficiency and no “6ynergy” +leury has been acquiring smaller labs as a growth strategy° growing revenue ±·¶ per year 3otential growth but ,ncreased risk with acquisitions ,rowth strategy has not been as successful as the company expects° inflation in ''razil is around ¸¶
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µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 4 Grupo Fleury - Pricing °V/°±²³´µ = 30.93 + 4.9*g - 17.3 * ´¶· - 40.40 * ³a56x ra12te 8sing ))amodaran’s *9¹*'',7))&&& regression° the equation is as follows! +leury’s fundamentals! ,rowth $""" ±·³º¶ 7otal ))ebt $""" 5» ¼°¸±´ million 0arket 9alue of *quity! 5»·°¼µµ 0illion 7ax rate $""" º¸³¼½¶ EV¼EBITDA $ ³±µ +leury currently trades at ³»µº¶x 7he median of the sector is ³¹µ¸³x Note °%! This regression uses emerging±market companies in all industries² Note ³%! The ´$  peers selected were all lab±businesses with market±cap above US+)* °µµ million² )'(elow this threshold there were many companies missing data FLRY± EV¼EBITDA Pricing CURRENT ±µ³¸½ ±·³½± REGRESSION ±¼³  ºº³±² MEDIAN ±²³º± ºº³·¸ »±001s!""#e !!"d ,,-o++,n --.p//0r&&'i¶&&'i++,n$$%g, µ))*l!""#e223u//0r667y ))*l,,-o,,-o(()k001s 223u++,n !!"d!""#e//0r334v±))*l223u!""#e !!"d. ¸,,-o445w!""#e334v!""#e//0r, 112t%%&h!""#e &&'i++,n112t//0r&&'i++,n001s&&'i¶ 334v±))*l223u±112t&&'i,,-o++,n 001s%%&h,,-o445w001s 112t%%&h±112t &&'i112t &&'i001s %%&h±//0r !!"d112t,,-o ''(j223u001s112t&&'i##$f667y ± 334v±))*l223u!""#e ±À,,-o334v!""#e 445w%%&h±112t &&'i112t &&'i001s ¶223u//0r//0r!""#e++,n112t))*l667y 112t//0r± !!"d&&'i++,n$$%g ±112t.
PVH - Summary µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 5 ·,,-o**+m--.p±++,n667y ´!""#e001s¶//0r&&'i--.p112t&&'i,,-o++,n ¸&&'i001s112t,,-o//0r&&'i¶±))*l ¹112t,,-o¶(()k ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e º++,n334v!""#e001s112t**+m!""#e++,n112t ²//0r,,-o##$f&&'i))*l!""#e º++,n !!"d223u001s112t//0r667y ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e 39- ((orp³ was founded in ±½½± and is based in 1ew <ork° 1ew <ork³ 7he company has ben divesting other business to focus on its two main brands! 7ommy -ilfiger and ((alvin .lein 5ecommendation! ''uy +air 9alue! ² µ» 5egression pricing! ²³¹±µ´ 0edian pricing! ²³´´µ¸¹ /ast ((lose! ²¶±µº³ ¾0ay¹µ·¹ºµº¼¿ ,ndustry! Apparel -eadquarters! New York¼NY ',-23Ʉ/01 3"Ʉ 0112/12&0112/
µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 6 PVH - Story 39- is targeting midÀteens in &&&sia ''rand awareness in ((hina is ·µ¶ 0ain brands struggle with younger consumers ))igital and ))irectÀ7oÀ((onsumer focus 6trong markets in *urope and &&&mericas° and growth opportunities in &&&sia ¾((hina¿ 39- has been divesting of notÀsoÀsuccessful brands to focus on 7ommy -ilfiger and ((alvin .lein ¾ above ½µ¶ brand awareness¿ Á 39-Á3/&&&1 ,ncreased risk » ¼¼ million impairment in ºµºµ from &&&552: and ,eoffrey ''eene brands 3otential growth 6ensitive to macroeconomic headwinds 39- could not pass inflation to consumers ''ut saw costs increase &&&lso led to inventory management issues ,nventory writeÀoff might be coming ,nventory levels soared industryÀwide 7here is cyclicality to consumer taste in apparel ((urrent inventory might need to be sold at heavy discounts
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µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 7 PVH - Story to numbers +ocus on digital expansion and on the asian market° namely ((hina° where brand awareness is not yet at satisfactory levels³ 7he apparel industry is competitive° however° and growth is unlikely to be a strong factor in the longÀrun³ 7ax rate in the longÀterm should be º²¶ as per guidance 5ecent supplyÀchain and demand issued have led to increase inventory which might have to be sold at discounts° hurting margins in the shortÀterm³ 39- has strong brand names° which should benefit margins in the longÀrun ¾median *'',7 margin of peers is ±¼³º¶¿ &&&lthough it is a competitive industry° 39- has strong brands and can maintain 52,(( above :&&&(((( in the future³ 39-Á plan will require reinvestment° but better inventory management can mitigate some of it³ 7erminal growth g7! 52,(( $""" ±²³ ¶ 55 $"""±·³µ¶ 52,((x55 $""" g7 ±²³ ¶ x ±·¶ $""" º³º¶ *quity À ¸º¶ ))ebt À ¸º¶ ''ottomÀup unlevered beta $""" ±³±²¸ ))¹* $""" µ³¸ ''eta $""" ±³¸´ :&&&(((( of ±±³±¼¶ *53 $""" ´³±¶ *53 weight 86 and ((anada ·³±²¶ ¼·¶ *urope Á 5ussia ½³´²¶ ²´¶ &&&siaÀ3acific ¸³²¼¶ ±´¶ 2ther +oreign ±º³º·¶ ±¶ 39- 5ating! ''''''À ((redit 6pread! º¶ 3reÀtax cost of debt! $""" ¼³²²¶ Á º¶ $""" ·³²²¶ 5iskÀfree rate! ²³²¼·¶ as of 0ay¹µ·¹ºµº¼
µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 8 PVH - Pricing EV¼IC $ ³µº¸·¹ ¾ ¹µ´¹»´¿EBITDA Margin ¾ ·µ±··¶¿g À ³µ³¹¶¶¿D¼E :ith an of »µ¸º¹¶ and all independent variables at a significant level° the calculated *9¹,(( for 39- is ³µº¹ &&& few regressions were attempted° before arriving at the best tradeÀoff between prediction power and significant predictors! 5evenue growth was a better than earnings growth 52,(( was expected to show a great level of significance° but it was worse than *'',7))&&& margin³ :hen used together° 52,(( had a negative coefficient ¾likely due to multicollinearity¿ Peer group used is all (&'PP(&'R,*+2L companies ¶°!µ· with more than US+)* °µµ million 3Market *()ap )'(elow US+)* °µµ million there were many companies missing financial data² PVH EV¼IC Pricing CURRENT ±³±± ½¼³¸± REGRESSION ±³¸² ±²¼³·  MEDIAN ±³´² ±··³º²
Public Storage - Summary µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 9 ·,,-o**+m--.p±++,n667y ´!""#e001s¶//0r&&'i--.p112t&&'i,,-o++,n ¹112t,,-o¶(()k ¸&&'i001s112t,,-o//0r&&'i¶±))*l ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e º++,n334v!""#e001s112t**+m!""#e++,n112t ²//0r,,-o##$f&&'i))*l!""#e º++,n !!"d223u001s112t//0r667y ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e 3ublic 6torage is a 5*,7 that primarily acquires° develops° owns° and operates selfÀstorage facilities³ &&&t ))ecember ¼±° ºµºº° it had interests in º°½¸ selfÀstorage facilities located in ²µ states with approximately ºµ² million net rentable square feet in the 8nited 6tates³ 5ecommendation ! Sell +air 9alue! ²³ º¶µ· -eadquartered! Glendale½ California ((omparable 3ricing! ²±¸¸µ´ ¹ 5egression! ²± ³µ³
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Public Storage - Story µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 10 6ince ºµ± up to date 36&&& has acquired more than ²±º facilities across the 86°becoming the largest operator of selfÀstorage in the nation³ 5*,7s are at high devaluation risk due to an disproportionately increase in cap rates that decreases the net value of their assets³ ))uring early ºµº¼ tried unsuccessfully to acquire one of its peers Life Storage that finally ended up been acquired by *xtra 6torage &&&fter a massive surge in demand during the pandemic° occupancy rates are declining° causing lower pricing by operators³ &&&s the pandemic impact have dissipated° many tenants that rented during that time are moving out³ 36&&& may face decline in *'',7 due to overdevelopment of selfÀstorage since ºµºµ³ 7he stagflationary environment has caused the bondÀ stock correlation to increase° limiting hedge opportunities in low risk assets like 5*,76
Public Storage - Story to numbers µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 11 Fair Value! ''ased on the intrinsic valuation approach we determined that 36&&& price per share stands at! »±¸½³´³ 0eaning that 36&&& is currently overvalued³
Public Storage - Pricing µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 9 °V/°±²³´µ = 23.93 + 25.40*g - 8.20 * ´¶· - 34.40 * ³a56x ra12te 8sing 3rof³ ))amodaran’s *9¹*'',7))&&& regression° the equation is as follows! 3ublic 6torage’s fundamentals! g$""" ·³·µ¶ ))+5$""" ³±º 7ax 5ate$""" µ¶ *'',7))&&&$""" »¼°µ´ ³² m EV¼EBITDA $ ¸¹µ±x 36&&& currently trades at ¸»µ±x 7he median of the sector is ¸»µ¹x Note °%! This regression uses US companies in all industries² Note ³%! The comparables selected were all R,*+./T Self±storage companies with market±cap above US+)* °µµ million PSA EV¼EBITDA Pricing CURRENT ºµ³¼ º ·³± REGRESSION º²³¼ ¼ ±³± MEDIAN ºµ³² ¼ºº³· µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 12
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Mastercard - Summary µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 13 ·,,-o**+m--.p±++,n667y ´!""#e001s¶//0r&&'i--.p112t&&'i,,-o++,n ¸&&'i001s112t,,-o//0r&&'i¶±))*l ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e º++,n334v!""#e001s112t**+m!""#e++,n112t ²//0r,,-o##$f&&'i))*l!""#e º++,n !!"d223u001s112t//0r667y ²!""#e//0r##$f,,-o//0r**+m±++,n¶!""#e – ·//0r!""#e !!"d&&'i112t ·±//0r !!"dº001s001s223u±++,n¶!""#e001s &&'i++,n º++,n !!"d&&'i± 724 astercard ,ncorporated° a technology company° provides transaction processing and other paymentÀrelated products and services in the 8nited 6tates and internationally³ ,t facilitates the processing of payment transactions° including authorization° clearing° and settlement° as well as delivers other paymentÀrelated products and services³ 7he company offers integrated products and valueÀadded services for account holders° merchants° financial institutions° businesses° governments° and other organizations° such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments" payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts" prepaid programs services" and commercial credit° debit° and prepaid payment products and solutions³ 7he company offers payment solutions and services under the 0aster((ard° 0aestro° and ((irrus³ 0astercard ,ncorporated was founded in ± ¸¸ and is headquartered in 3urchase° 1ew <ork ³ 5ecommendation! 6ell +air 9alue! ²³¶´µ ´ 5egression pricing! ²¸±³µ·± 0edian pricing! ²¸± µ ± /ast ((lose! ²±¶¹µºº ¾0ay¹µ·¹ºµº¼¿ ,ndustry! Information Services -eadquarters! Purchase½ NY ¹,,-o223u//0r¶!""#e: ¹112t±112t&&'i001s112t±
µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 14 Mastercard - Story 0astercard is dependent on the health of the global economy and consumer spending° which could be affected by factors such as inflation° interest rates° pandemics° or geopolitical tensions 0astercard can leverage its openÀloop network and its partnerships with banks and fintech providers to capture more market share 0astercard expects to grow net revenue at a highÀteens percentage compound annual rate from ºµºº to ºµº² and achieve a minimum annual operating margin of ·µ¶ 0astercard can benefit from the acceleration of digital adoption° the introduction of new use cases° and the expansion of card adoption among smaller merchants and micromerchants 3lan ,ncreased risk 0astercard sees a »¼ trillion total addressable market in payments with significant untapped opportunities 3otential growth 0astercard faces intense competition from other payment networks like 9isa° &&&merican *xpress° and ))iscover° as well as from fintech challengers like 3ay3al and 6quare 0astercard may need to invest heavily in innovation and acquisitions to keep up with the changing consumer preferences and technological advancements
µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 15 Mastercard - Story to numbers ,lobal payments industry has demonstrated resilience and is expected to exceed preÀpandemic revenue expectations° with a projected 7&&&0 of »¼ trillion by ºµº¸ 7ax rate in the longÀterm should be º·¶ as per guidance 2ne reason for the profitability of 0astercard is its ability to futureÀproof its business through partnerships and collaborations with other fintech startups and technology giants³ &&&dditionally° 0astercardÂs gross margins essentially stand at ±µµ¶° as both companies record no incremental expenses for every transaction° and operating profit margins of ··¶ for 0astercard are slightly lower than 9isaÂs ¸´¶° but this gap is expected to narrow down as the company grows 0astercardÂs strong competitive advantage° recurring revenue model° low capital intensity° and pricing power° along with the benefits of network effects° economies of scale° brand recognition° and switching costs that create high barriers to entry and customer loyalty contribute to its high return on capital³ 0astercardÂs financial stability° global presence° and increasing revenue may contribute to its ability to maintain a favorable sales to capital ratio *quity À ¸º¶ ))ebt À ¸º¶ ''ottomÀup unlevered beta $""" ±³¼² ))¹* $""" ¼³ ¶ ''eta $""" ±³¼½ :&&&(((( of ±±³±¼¶ *53 $""" ¸³½¸¶ *53 86 and ((anada ·³²²¶ ¼²¶ *urope ¸³ ·¶ ¼º¶ &&&0*&&& ´³¼´¶ º½¶ /&&&7&&&0 ±º³µ±¶ ¸¶ 0astercard 5ating! &&&aa¼ ((redit 6pread! ±³¸º¶ 3reÀtax cost of debt! $""" ¼³²¶ Á ±³¸º¶ $""" ·³µº¶ 5iskÀfree rate! ¼³²¶ as of 0ar¹¼±¹ºµº¼
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µ&&'i++,n±))*l ²//0r,,-o''(j!""#e¶112t 16 Mastercard - Pricing ¸° = 8.63 + 2.23 ±e12ta + 46.20 g_°¸¹ + 19.90 ¸a67yo23u12t 8sing ))amodaran’s 3* regression° the equation is as follows! 0astercard’s inputs! ''eta $""" ±³±± *xpected *36 growth $""" ±½³´¶ 3ayout ratio $""" ºº³½¶ Regression PE ratio $ ¸¹µ³´ 0astercard currently trades at ±¶µ¹¸x 7he median of comparables is ¸±µ ±ºx Note °%! The P,*+ regression used companies market±wide Note ³%! The comparables were # companies involved in payment processing Mastercard PE Pricing CURRENT ¼½³²º ¼½²³¸¸ REGRESSION º²³±· º²±³´² MEDIAN º¼³ ¸ º¼ ³½² »±001s!""#e !!"d,,-o++,n --.p//0r&&'i¶&&'i++,n$$%g, °±001s112t!""#e//0r¶±//0r !!"d))*l,,-o,,-o(()k001s 223u++,n !!"d!""#e//0r334v±))*l223u!""#e !!"d. ¹&&'i++,n¶!""#e À,,-o112t%%&h 112t%%&h!""#e &&'i++,n112t//0r&&'i++,n001s&&'i¶ 334v±))*l223u±112t&&'i,,-o++,n ±++,n !!"d//0r!""#e))*l±112t&&'i334v!""#e --.p//0r&&'i¶&&'i++,n$$%g ±//0r!""#e 445w!""#e))*l))*l À!""#e))*l,,-o445w 112t%%&h!""#e ¶223u//0r//0r!""#e++,n112t --.p//0r&&'i¶!""#e, 445w!""#e //0r!""#e¶,,-o**+m**+m!""#e++,n !!"d112t,,-o ¹¼½½ °±001s112t!""#e//0r¶±//0r !!"d.