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University of the Punjab *

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Nov 24, 2024

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[QUESTION] [Problem 15.10] The Totally Tubular Tube Company wishes to evaluate three new investment proposals. The firm is concerned with the impact of the proposals on its total risk. Consequently, it has determined expected values and standard deviations of the probability distributions of possible net present values for the possible combinations of existing projects, E, and investment proposals under consideration: Which combination do you feel is most desirable? Which proposals should be accepted? Which should be rejected? [ANSWER] The selection will depend on the risk preferences of the individual. Graphs of the plots are shown below. For the reasonable risk averter, the selection will probably be combination E13, which has an expected net present value of $7,500 and a standard deviation of $5,600. (The E(NPV) vs. CV of NPV graph reinforces the implied preference for E13.) In this case, proposals #1 and #3 would be accepted and proposal #2 would be rejected. It should be noted that the combination of proposal #1 with existing investment projects results in an actual lowering of the standard deviation. This implies negative correlation between the proposal and existing projects.
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