ECON 304 Exam 2 Prep

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Pennsylvania State University, World Campus *

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304

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Economics

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Jan 9, 2024

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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 1. What is the equation for the ‘more realistic’ money multiplier? Mm=[(C/D) + 1] / [C/D + RR/D + ER/D] = [cu + 1] / [cu + res ] 2. In the economy, the following statistics describe the money supply: C = $500b R = $125b D = $2,000b Given these data, calculate the following to whole numbers unless noted otherwise: Monetary Base ( BASE ): BASE = C + R = 500 + 125 = 625 B BASE = Money Supply ( M ): M = C + D = 500 + 2000 = 2500 M = Ratio of reserves to deposits ( res ): (carry out to four decimals) Res = R / D = 125/2000 = 0.0625 res = Ratio of currency to deposits ( cu ): (carry out to four decimals) Cu = C / D = 500/ 2000 =0.25 cu = Money Multiplier ( mm ): (carry out to four decimals) 625B 2500 B 0.0625 0.25 1
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Mm= (cu + 1) / (cu + res) = 1.25 / .3125 = 4 mm = Now suppose a shock causes banks to change the amount of reserves they hold relative to deposits so that res changes to 0.0750. Suppose that when this happens, both cu and BASE do not change. However, the change in res will affects mm , M , C , R , and D . Calculate the following: Money Multiplier ( mm ): (carry out to four decimals) Mm = (cu + 1)/ (cu + res) = 1.25/ 0.25 + 0.0750 = 3.8461 mm = Money Supply ( M ): m = mm x base = 3.8461 x 625 = 2403.85 M = Bank Deposits ( D ): D = Base / (cu + res) = 625 / (0.25 + .0750) = 1923.07 D = Currency held by the public ( C ): C= M – D = 2403.84 – 1923.07 = 480.77 C = Bank Reserves ( R ): Reserves = Base – C = 625 – 480.77 = 144.23 R = In October, 2008, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on reserves. What did this do to the money multiplier? Why did this happen to the money multiplier? Be sure to use your money multiplier equation when answering this question. 4 3.8461 2403.85 1923.07 480.77 144.23 2
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 3. From your textbook: Just as banking panics led to a decline in the money multiplier during the Great Depression, a worldwide financial panic similarly caused the money multiplier to decline in 2008. Below you will find a graph of the currency-deposit ratio ( cu ) and the reserve-deposit ratio ( dep ) from the Great Depression. How were the changes in the currency-deposit ratio ( cu ) different during the Great Recession than depicted above during the Great Depression? Explain why this was the case. How were the changes in the reserve-deposit ratio ( res ) different during the Great Recession than depicted above during the Great Depression? Explain why this was the case. When the fed started paying interest on reserves the money multiplier fell sharply. This was because the reserve- deposit ratio increased which kept a lot of money from being “multiplier fell sharply. This was because the reserve- deposit ratio increased which kept a lot of money from being “multiplied” through the economy as deposits. Algebraically we can see this because the reserve-deposit ratio is in the denominator of the money multiplier equation. Mm = [(C/D) + 1] / [C/D +RR/D + ER/D] = [cu + 1] / [cu + res] During the Great Recession we saw the currency-deposit ratio decrease slightly instead of increase. This was a result of FDIC insurance which insured deposits, Therefore, people did not have a reason to pull money out of deposits. During the Great Recession we saw the reserve-deposit ratio increase significantly more than it did during the Great Depression. The main cause of this was the Federal Reserve began paying interest on reserves. Therefore, banks held a lot of reserves causing the reserve to deposit ratio to skyrocket. 3
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 What was different about the Federal Reserve’s actions after the Great Recession than their actions after the Great Depression? Suppose the real money demand function is: Assume M = 3600, P = 2.0, π e = 0.01, and Y = 5000. Note: we are holding P and Y constant in this problem until we get to case #2 below. What is the market clearing real interest rate? r = During the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve did not increase the momentary base significantly enough to offset the decline in the money multiplier. This led to the overall money supply decrease causing a deflationary environment. During the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve was able to increase the monetary base by enough to offset the decline in the money multiplier. Making it so the money supply continued to rise, and we did not see level of deflation seen during the Great Depression. 3600/2 = 1500 + 0.2 * 5000 – 10,000(r + 0.01) R = 0.06 0.06 4
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Show your results on a real money supply, real money demand diagram and label this initial equilibrium point as point A. Be sure to label your graph completely! Correctly drawn and completely labeled diagram is worth 10 points total. Be sure to put relevant shift variables in parentheses next to the appropriate function. 5
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Suppose Janet Yellen and the Fed were successful in their campaign to raise inflationary expectations to 4% (.04). Why would they want to do this? Use the Fisher equation to support your argument. Solve for the real interest rate that clears the money market given the change in inflationary expectations. Please show work and Label this new point as point B on your diagram above. r = We know that the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus the expected rate of inflation. This is called the fisher equation and is below in equation form. R = I – pi^e If the fed raises inflationary expectations, all else constant, then real rates will fail. They would want to do this if they wanted to expand a slowing economy. .03 6
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Explain how this strategy of raising inflationary expectations is supposed to stimulate output. Recall that output is equal to C + I + G! Be very specific. Hint: The price of current consumption in terms of future consumption and the user cost of capital most definitely need to be in your response. Case #2 Let us return to our original conditions. Please redraw the original graph locating point A (this is with π e = 0.01, we are holding expected inflation constant in case #2) By raising inflationary expectations, the Fed is essentially lowering the real interest rate. R lowering r decreases the price of current consumption in terms of future consumption so households will have substituted towards current consumption. Therefore, consumption ( c ). Which is 70% if the economy will go increase. The lower real interest rate will also stimulate the economy through investment. When the real interest rate goes down the user cost of capital, uc , goes down as well. If uc goes down, the firm needs to raise the level of capital investment (K*) to keep the profit maximizing condition (recall that the profit maximizing condition is when uc = MPK). When K* increases overall investment, I , Increases because we know the following formula I = K* - K + dK 7
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 We now experience some economic growth so that Y = 5500. This is the only change. Resolve for the market clearing real rate of interest and label on your diagram as point B. Please show all work and label this as point B on the graph above. Correctly drawn and completely labeled diagram is worth 10 points total. Be sure to put relevant shift variables in parentheses next to the appropriate function. r = 0.07 8
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Now explain exactly why the real rate of interest had to change the way it did to clear the money market. Please be clear with the intuition being sure to refer to the bond market in your answer. You should begin your response with "At the same real rate of interest, the money market is no longer clearing. In particular money demand ..." you can finish the rest. At the same real interest rate the money market is no longer clearing. In particular, money demand is greater: than money supply ( this is at r= .06). Thus, households will begin selling non-monetary assets (bonds) causing their price to fall and their yield (i) to rise. Holding pi^e constant, if the nominal interest rate increases the real interest rate must increase to clear the market (think fisher equation). 9
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Suppose the Fed wanted to keep real interest rates constant at their original level. Suppose also that the money multiplier is 0.75, which is consistent with reality since the Fed began paying interest on reserves beginning in October 2008. What exactly would the Fed have to do to keep real interest rates constant at their original level? Be specific with regard to the type and quantity of open market operations the Fed would need to conduct to be successful in keeping real interest rates constant at their original level. 10
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Finally, explain the movement to the new equilibrium in the money market given the Fed expansion and show on your diagram as point C. Be sure to refer to the bond market as you did in part f). In fact, you should start your response the same way. 11
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Using the percent change of the equation of exchange, explain what assumptions need to be made to make the argument that the Fed should allow for the nominal money supply to grow at 5%. This question will dig deeper into the velocity of money. Define the velocity of money. What does it mean if the percent change in velocity is negative? Give a real-life example of how this could be possible? What central banking nightmare can occur if we see the percent change in velocity of money turn negative and the Fed does not react? 12
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 1. Consider the following model of the economy: where the initial values of A = 6 and K = 10. The initial conditions in the goods market are as follows: G = 100 T= 100 The initial conditions in the asset market are as follows: L = 78 + 0.5Y- 1000(r + π e ) Nominal Money supply: M = 1800 Expected inflation is equal to 2% (π e = 0.02) 1 a) (6 points) Solve for the labor market clearing real wage (w*), the profit maximizing level of labor input (N*), and the full employment level of output (Y*). Please show your work. 13
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Draw two diagrams vertically with the labor market on the bottom graph and the production function on the top graph. Be sure to label everything including this initial equilibrium point as point A. 14
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Derive an expression for the IS curve (r in terms of Y). Please show all work IS Equation: R= 0.95 – 0.0005y 15
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Find the real interest rate that clears the goods market. Please show all work r = 0.054 or 5.4% 16
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Find the price level needed to clear the money market. Please show all work P = Find the expression for the LM curve (r in terms of Y). Please show all work LM Equation: 2 R = -0.842 + .0005y 17
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Now draw four separate diagrams: Top left : a desired savings equals desired investment (S d = I d ), Top right : a FE - IS – LM diagram, Bottom left : a money market diagram, Bottom right : An AD - AS diagram, locating this initial equilibrium point as point A. BE SURE to LABEL all diagrams completely each diagram will have three different equilibriums points A, B, and C) SCENARIO #1 – AN LM SHOCK! 18
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 The Fed decides to conduct open market purchases equal to 50 . Assume that banks continue to hold zero excess reserves and the money multiplier is 2. Name two other ways the Federal Reserve could change the nominal money supply this way. What is the new, short run (fixed price level) expression for the LM curve? Please show all work. LM Equation R = -0.892 + .0005y 19
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 What is the short run, Keynesian (fixed price) level of equilibrium output and real interest rate? Please show all work. Y = r = .029 1842 20
Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Find the new price level associated with the long run general equilibrium. P = 2.11 21
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Economics 304 Lesson 07 to 09 Let us focus on the movement from point A to B (the short -run) in your money market diagram. Explain why (and in what direction) the real interest rate had to change to 'clear' the money market. Be as specific as possible as we talked about this a great deal in our video lectures! 22
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