Different industries require different methods for forecasting demand

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Loyalist College *

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3006

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Economics

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Jan 9, 2024

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docx

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Uploaded by DeaconCrownVulture35

Arjun Anilkumar STUDENT NUMBER: 500232420 SUPPLY CHAIN AND LOGISTIC MANAGEMENT (M03 GROUP 1)

Different industries require different methods for forecasting demand. For each industry below, what forecast methods would you use? What challenges would there be? 1) A toilet paper manufacturer. 2) A company that makes Halloween costumes. 3) An automobile manufacturer. 1) Toilet Paper Manufacturer A Toilet Paper Manufacturer has a very variable consumer behaviour and forecasting demand is very crucial. Time and Series methods are used to forecast demand to avoid over supply. Historical sales data lets the firm know the patterns and seasonality which is vital for planning production and managing inventory. For Example, Kimberly-Clark Australia reported that global supply chain disruptions have increased the demand for toilet paper and tissue products produced in Australia by 10% as compared to pre-pandemic levels. Unpredictable events like the pandemic, disruptions in the supply chain, consumer behaviour can have significant impact on demand forecasting. Collaborating with retailers and suppliers to forecast demand can help address challenges. It's important to establish communication channels and share data to ensure that production aligns, with the market needs. Additionally maintaining flexibility in production schedules is crucial, for being able to respond to events. 2) Halloween Costume Company Predicting the demand, for a Halloween costume company requires navigating through changing trends and the dynamic preferences of consumers. One of the tools used is market research, which involves analysing fashion trends and identifying popular cultural references. Additionally staying engaged on media is vital to keep up with emerging themes and preferences. One of the challenges is dealing with the seasonality as most sales are focused on Halloween. To handle this, it's crucial to manage inventory to prevent having much or too little stock. Predicting sales can be difficult, due to shifts, in fashion trends and the impact of culture. For instance, a costume that is trendy one year might become outdated the year. Working together with retailers and distributors is crucial, in understanding the needs of the market. Moreover, it can be quite challenging to keep up with changing trends and adjust our production processes accordingly. It's essential to have a flexible supply chain and production setup that enables us to make timely adaptations to meet consumer expectations. 3) Automobile Manufacturer:

Predicting the demand, for an automobile manufacturer is a process that involves analysing economic indicators, consumer sentiment and industry patterns. Sophisticated forecasting models consider sales data, economic circumstances, and variables such as fuel prices. Working closely with dealerships and suppliers also provides insights, into the demands of different regions. Forecasting for the industry presents challenges with one of them being the extended time it takes for production. To effectively plan and adapt production schedules to meet demand it is crucial to consider the intricate manufacturing processes involved. Additionally external factors, like downturns, geopolitical events or shifts in consumer preferences can have an influence, on demand and need to be carefully considered. The automotive sector is also going through changes due to the increasing popularity of vehicles and advancements in driving. Predicting the demand for these technologies adds another level of complexity. Balancing the production to meet the demand, without overproduction in an evolving market remains a constant challenge. REFERENCES: 1) www.cleanlink.com 2) https://www.linkedin.com/ 3) https://www.mdpi.com/

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