POM 3430 Quiz 4

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Oakland University *

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3430

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Economics

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Feb 20, 2024

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Uploaded by CaptainDolphinMaster961

Quiz 4 – Forecasting Models Answer the 20 questions below on the answer sheet provided. Please place your answers in boxes. Do not show your work. Each correct response will be worth one point. When completed, upload only your answer sheet on the link provided. Below is a trend adjusted model fitted to quarterly revenues of a startup company selling PowerDrink , a new energy drink geared toward college millennials. Based on the data and model below, answer the following questions.

Show your responses on the answer sheet provided. Hand in only the answer sheet with your responses. Fill in the Blanks in the table (1 – 4) 1. The Smoothed Average in period 6 2. The Forecast in period 10 3. The demand in period 11 4. The Trend in period 14 5. Find the Error in Period 20. 6. Using the trend adjusted model above, with the alpha and beta values provided, develop a forecast for period 28. 7. Using the data in the model, develop a six period moving average for period 26. 8. Using the data in the model, develop a forecast for period 27 using a weighted moving average model with weights of 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1 (with the first weight on the most recent data). 9. Develop a tracking signal, based on periods 13 through 16. 10. Based on your tracking signal, the model appears to track the data: A. poorly B. okay C. Indicates nothing about the models tracking., 11. Calculate a bias based on periods 16 to 20. 12. Does your bias indicate the model tends to: A. Over-estimate B. Under-Estimate. C. No bias found. 13. The Delphi Approach is an example of what type of forecasting Model? A. Long Range B. Qualitative C. Time Series D. More than one of the above. 14. Which of the following is the least useful sales forecasting model to use when sales are decreasing? A. Trend adjusted exponential smoothing (  = 0.3) B. Simple mean (arithmetic average) C. Four period weighted moving average D. Naïve (Last Period Demand) 15. When analyzing time series data for forecasting, the first thing you should do is plot the data. A. True B. False

16. Decreasing n in an n -period moving average forecasting model increases the responsiveness of the model to variability in the demand pattern. A. True B. False 17. Anna’ department uses exponential smoothing to make forecasts. Given the last period’s demand forecast was for 20,000 units and last period’s actual demand was 21,000 units, what should be the forecast for the current period? (Anna’s department uses a smoothing constant ( α ) equal to 0.40.) A. 21,000 B. 20,600 C. 20,400 D. 20,000 18. If you were to use a four-period simple moving average method to forecast sales, and sales have been increasing by 20% every period. How will your forecasts perform? A. Forecasts will increase by 5.0% every period. B. Forecasts will be lower than actual. C. Forecasts will be higher than actual. D. More than one of the above are correct. 19. Increasing alpha in a simple exponential smoothing forecast model: A. Increases the accuracy of the model. B. Increases the responsiveness of the model to variability in the demand pattern. C. Decreases the responsiveness of the model to variability in the demand pattern. D. Makes no difference in the responsiveness or accuracy of the model. 20. Given a large positive tracking signal (greater than 3), one conclusion that can be made is that actual demand typically is lower than the forecasted demand. A. True B. False

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Answer Sheet Name ___________________ Each box should contain one calculated value or a letter indicating your response. (Do not show any work, only answers.) 1 Point Each

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