Midterm1_2022_Fall-v3-Solutions

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First Name: Last (Family) Name: Student ID: Econ 100B, Fall 2022 First Midterm Exam Prof. Raymond J. Hawkins In-class exam, 2:10–3:30 p.m., October 4th, 2022. Notes for the exam: 1. This is a closed-book and closed-note exam. Calculators (with no text stored) may be used during this exam. No other form of electronic device may be used (no computers, laptops, PDA’s, etc). Cell phones cannot be used during this exam. 2. Answer all questions. 3. We will be using the Gradescope system for scoring and returning your exams. Please keep your work and answers within the border shown on each page to ensure your work and answers are picked up by the gradescope scanner. 4. The space available on the exam is a hint regarding the maximum you should be writing if you approach the problem correctly. 5. Numbers and/or statements without supporting calculations and/or explanation will not receive full credit. 6. Make sure your final answers are clearly indicated for each question. 7. On any sketches, make sure that axes are labeled and that important graphical items are clear. If they are not clear enough, you may add a few words explaining what should be visible in the sketch.
1. In the 1940s the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) developed the economic index shown together with real GDP in the graphs below: Assess the relationship between the growth rate of this NBER index and the growth rate of GDP using the measures listed below. Include a brief summary of the ways each measure can be classified to support your assessment. (a) (3 pts) Timing. Solution: Timing indicates whether changes in the NBER index lead, lag, or are coinci- dent with those of GDP. The location of the maximum magnitude of the cross correlation answers this question. Since the maximum is seen at a lag of 2 quarters, it follows that the NBER index lags GDP. (b) (3 pts) Direction. Solution: Direction indicates whether changes in the NBER index are procyclical or countercyclical with respect to those of GDP. The sign of maximum magnitude of the cross correlation answers this question. Since the sign of the maximum is positive, it follows that the labor productivity is procyclical. (c) (3 pts) Volatility. Solution: Volatility is a measure of the variability seen in the time series, often measured using the standard deviation. Casual comparison of the time series in the left-hand panel shows that the NBER index varies more than GDP. The relative volatility (rel. vol.) number is the ratio of the standard deviations and indicates that the growth rate of the NBER index is 2.8 times as volatile as that of GDP. Page 2
2. In their paper Determinants of Technical Efficiency Among Coconut Smallholder Production in Johor, Malaysia: A Cobb Douglas Stochastic Frontier Production Approach 1 , Professors Z. Omar, F. A. Fatah analyze coconut output, Y , using the regression equation ln ( Y ) = c 0 + β 1 ln ( X 1 ) + β 2 ln ( X 2 ) + β 3 ln ( X 3 ) where ln ( x ) is the natural logarithm of x and where “ Y is coconut output, X 1 is the planting area in acres, X 2 is the quantity of fertilizer in kilograms, and X 3 is the quantity of fungicide in litres.” (a) (3 pts) What is the production function for coconuts? Briefly explain the basis for your equation. Solution: The regression analysis of a production function is based on the logarithm of the production function. Given this we can interpret the regression equation above as the logarithm of the production for coconuts. From this we can write the production function as Y = exp ( c 0 + β 1 ln ( X 1 ) + β 2 ln ( X 2 ) + β 3 ln ( X 3 )) (1) so Y = e c 0 X β 1 1 X β 2 2 X β 3 3 (2) (b) (3 pts) Derive an expression for the marginal product of fungicide. Solution: The marginal product is the partial derivative of production with respect to the associated variable, in this case X 3 . So MP-fungicide = ∂Y ∂X 3 (3) = ∂X 3 e c 0 X β 1 1 X β 2 2 X β 3 3 (4) = e c 0 X β 1 1 X β 2 2 ∂X β 3 3 ∂X 3 (5) so MP-fungicide = β 3 e c 0 X β 1 1 X β 2 2 X β 3 - 1 3 (6) or MP-fungicide = β 3 Y X - 1 3 (7) 1 IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 757 (2021) 012013 Page 3
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(c) (3 pts) If the production function that you derived in response to question 2(a) exhibits constant return to scale, derive an expression for the sum of the β s. Briefly explain the basis for your calculation. Solution: When a production function exhibits constant returns to scale, changing all factors of production by the factor m results in production being changed by the same factor m , or mY = e c 0 ( mX 1 ) β 1 ( mX 2 ) β 2 ( mX 3 ) β 3 (8) = m β 1 + β 2 + β 3 e c 0 X β 1 1 X β 2 2 X β 3 3 (9) = m β 1 + β 2 + β 3 Y (10) or m = m β 1 + β 2 + β 3 (11) and 1 = β 1 + β 2 + β 3 (12) 3. (5 pts) Given the data in the table below, in which country is the fraction of the population that is unemployed greater? Item Morocco Gambia Unemployment rate (%) 11.47 11.21 Labor force participation rate (%) 43.56 57.40 Source: theglobaleconomy.com Solution: Since unemployed population = unemployed labor force × labor force population (13) = unemployment rate × labor force participation rate (14) we have that unemployed population Morocco = 11 . 74% × 0 . 4356 = 5% (15) and unemployed population Gambia = 11 . 21% × 0 . 5740 = 6 . 43% . (16) So a larger fraction of the population is unemployed in Gambia. Page 4
4. (5 pts) Given the data in the table below, how long will it take for the CPI of Burundi and Zambia be the same? ( Hint: CPI inflation is the growth rate of the CPI. ) Country CPI CPI inflation (%/year) Burundi 155.20 19.57 Zambia 364.87 9.78 Source: theglobaleconomy.com Solution: Since CPI inflation is the growth rate of CPI, the time from now at which the level of CPO will be the same is given by CPI Burundi e π Burundi t = CPI Cambodia e π Cambodia t (17) or e π Burundi t e - π Cambodia t = CPI Cambodia CPI Burundi (18) and ( π Burundi - π Cambodia ) × t = ln CPI Cambodia CPI Burundi . (19) So t = 1 π Burundi - π Cambodia ln CPI Cambodia CPI Burundi (20) = 1 0 . 1957 year - 1 - 0 . 0978 year - 1 ln 364 . 87 155 . 20 (21) and t = 8 . 73 years . (22) 5. (3 pts) Use the work of Professor’s Cook and Romer to explain the observation that racism is a tax on everyone’s income. Support your explanation with the appropriate equation(s). Solution: The growth of income per worker in steady state is given by g Y L = g E , and in the Romer model we have that g E = χγL . Prof. Cook noted that racism acts to reduce χ , γ , and L . And while these reductions are focussed on the members of the group that is being marginalized by racism, the impact of these actions is, via the Romer model, seen at the aggregate level of economic output. Thus, racism is a tax on everyone’s income. Page 5
6. The labor force growth rates for Yemen and Egypt are 2.2%/year and 1.68%/years, respectively. Consider the shock and response of Yemen’s economy if their labor force growth rate suddenly became that of Egypt using the Solow-Swan model. (a) (3 pts) At the moment of the shock, did the actual level of per-capita income shift, did the steady-state level of per-capita income shift, did both shift, or did neither shift? Briefly support your answer with the appropriate equation(s). Solution: The income per-capita, or Y L , curves are given by Y L = κ ( t ) α E ( t ) (23) where κ ( t ) = K ( t ) E ( t ) L ( t ) (24) for the actual curve and κ ( t ) = κ * = s g E + g L + δ 1 1 - α (25) for the steady-state associated balanced-growth curve. Since g L is the only variable that changed, it follows that the steady-state level of per-capita income shifted. (b) (5 pts) Draw a carefully annotated graph of Y L for the actual and balanced growth paths. Since the graph is qualitative, the numerical values for income per-capita are not important, but your graph should clearly show the difference between these two paths in the time before, during, and after the shock. Solution: Your graph should look something like this: Page 6
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(c) (3 pts) Is the growth rate of per-capita income during the months after the shock higher, lower, or the same as before the shock? Briefly explain and support your answer with the appropriate equation(s). Solution: Since the steady-state level κ * was shocked up, κ ( t ) needs to increase in value to reestablish steady state. As a result, dκ dt will be positive during the return to steady state, and since g κ = 1 κ dt (26) the growth rate of κ will be positive. And since the growth rate of Y L is g Y L = αg κ + g E (27) it follows that g Y L will be higher in the months after the shock. 7. (3 pts) Which country will experience a slower recovery from an economic shock from a Solow- Swan perspective if both countries have the same labor force and efficiency growth rate and the same depreciation rate? Briefly explain and support your answer with the appropriate equation(s). Solution: In a Cobb-Douglas regression, the slope of the regression line is α , capital’s share of income: Y = AK α L 1 - α ln Y L = ln ( A ) + α ln K L (28) From the measure of recovery given by the half life t 1 2 = ln ( 2 ) ( 1 - α )( g E + g L + δ ) (29) the country with the greater level labor’s share of income, 1 - α , or smaller level of capital’s share of income, α , will recover slowest. Based on the slopes in the graphs it follows that Argentina will recover more slowly. Page 7
Scratch Paper for Fall 2022 First Midterm Exam: Econ 100B Page 8