QE1 - Dryville - Estimating demand & benefits for a public good

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University of California, Davis *

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Economics

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Feb 20, 2024

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Quantitative Exercise - Dryville - Estimating demand & benefit of a public g Color codes: Instructions/explanation Questions Response/calculation/plotting 3. For responses to questions, strive for plain language that would be broadly understood by no demand function inverse demand function correlation regression multiple regression dependent versus independent variables regression coefficient regression equation R squared (R^2), adjusted R squared standard error statistical significance P-value total benefit, surplus Plotting: Scatter plot; line plot Labelling (bars, axes, figure) using cell references (r Formulas: Basic calculations Expanding formulas over multiple cases using AutoF Relative cell references versus absolute references General instructions 1. In the next Excel tab, follow instructions/explanation in green boxes and answers questions a response you generate (tables, figures, written responses, etc.) should go in an area already sh 2. To earn full credit, your submission should be clean, well-organized, and use "good Excel pra when possible rather than typing in numbers or labels that already appear in the spreadsheet). 4. Before you proceed, make sure you're working with a copy of Excel that has the "Data Analys on installing/loading, see either (1) https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/load-the-analysis-t 9317-6b40ba1a66b4; or (2) https://kb.salisbury.edu/m/mobile.action#page/79332643. Concepts required Excel skills
Data Analysis tool, within which you'll use: Descriptive statistics tool Correlation tool Regression tool Formating tables for readability e.g., sensible number of decimals or signficant digits Excel skills required Regression tutorial using Excel and the Data Analysis tool (Jalayer Academy): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXiZ_t2NK1k Regression refresher from Boardman et al. (2018):
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good on-economists and non-statisticians. rather than re-typing labels) Fill (click-and-drag) appearing in red boxes. Every expected haded in blue. actice" (e.g. formulas and cell referencing sis tool" installed/loaded. For guidance toolpak-in-excel-6a63e598-cd6d-42e3-
s
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Instructions and question prompts Data and your responses and output Table 1. Data Town Visits Fee ($) 1 168,590 $0.00 2 179,599 $0.00 3 198,595 $0.00 4 206,662 $0.00 5 170,259 $0.00 6 209,995 $0.25 7 172,018 $0.25 8 190,802 $0.25 9 197,019 $0.25 10 186,515 $0.50 11 152,679 $0.50 12 137,413 $0.50 13 158,056 $0.50 14 157,424 $0.50 15 179,490 $0.50 16 164,657 $0.75 17 184,428 $0.75 18 183,822 $0.75 19 174,510 $1.00 20 187,820 $1.00 21 196,318 $1.25 22 166,694 $1.50 23 161,716 $1.50 24 167,505 $2.00 Table 2. Descriptive statistics [INSERT TABLE HERE] You have been asked to estimate the gross social benefits of building a public swimming pool in Dryville (DV), which has a population of 70,230 people and a median household income of $31,500. To construct your estimate, you have already gathered data--shown in Table 1 at right--from 24 nearby towns that already have public swimming pools. You surveyed recreation departments for all 24 towns to find out what "Fee" it charged per visit and how many "Visits" it had during the most recent swimming season. You also gathered each town’s "Population" and median household "Income" from the most recent census. 1. Create a table of descriptive statistics for the four variables in Table 1. Keep only these rows of statistics and delete the rest: Mean, Standard Deviation, Minimum, Maximum, and Count. Clean up the table: (1) delete the repeated row labels for stats so that there's just one set of row labels on the far left of your Table 2 for Mean, Standard Deviation, etc. Your table should have 6 rows and 5 columns (including row and column labels). (2) show a sensible number of decimal places.
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Table 2. Correlation matrix [INSERT TABLE HERE] [TYPE YOUR ANSWER HERE.] Figure 1. Scatter plot of Visits (y-axis) versus Fee (x [INSERT FIGURE HERE] [TYPE EQUATION HERE] 2.1. Create a correlation matrix table for the four variables in Table 1. Clean up the table: (1) rationalize the decimal places shown. 2.2. Visits is the key outcome variable (which will be modeled further below). Given the correlations you generated, what other variables from Table 2 are most/least likely to be predictive of Visits and in what direction? 3. Create a scatter plot of Visits (y-axis) versus Fee (x-axis). Complete and clean up the figure: (1) both axes should be labeled, (2) adjust axis limits so that empty space is minimized. (Don't worry about a figure title--it's already given here just above the figure.) Add a linear trendline to the scatter plot, and select the option to "Display equation (for the trendline) on chart". 4.1. Write out the regression equation for a regression of Visits on a constant term (aka, "Intercept") and Fee and no other explanatory variables. For an example, see Boardman et al. (2018) as shown in the regression refresher from the "Read me" tab, specifically Equation 4A.1.
[TYPE YOUR ANSWER HERE.] Table 3. Regression of Visits on a constant term and [INSERT TABLE HERE] Use β_0 (for the constant) and β_1 for the regression coefficients and ε for the error term. Instead of generic variable names (e.g., x_1, x_2, etc.) use the variable names from the data table at top. 4.2. In the regression equation, why is the error term needed? (1 sentence) 5.1. Run the regression specified in part 4 above. For simplicity, we'll ignore the "Regression Statistics" and "ANOVA" tables. We'll focus on the regression table in the bottom three rows; clean up this part of the table. Specifically, set a sensible number of decimals for key output in the first four numeric columns: Coefficients, Standard Error, t Stat and P-value. 5.2. A. Compare the estimated coefficients (for Intercept and Fee) to the trendline and it's equation in the scatterplot above. What do you notice? (1-2 sentences) B. Assume that your threshold for statistical significance of the regression coefficients is 5%. For each of the estimated coefficients in Table 3, is the estimate statistically significant (why/why not)? (1-2 sentences) C. Summarize the conclusions of this regression with respect to the estimated effect [TYPE YOUR ANSWER HERE]
[TYPE EQUATION HERE] Table 4. Regression of VISITS on FEE, INCOME, an [INSERT TABLE HERE] [TYPE YOUR ANSWER HERE] regression with respect to the estimated effect of Fee, including the direction of the effect and statistical significance. (1-2 sentences) 6. Write down the regression equation for a regression of Visits on a constant term, Fee, Income and Population. As before, use β_0 (for the constant) and β_1, β_2, etc., for the regression coefficients and ε for the error term.. 7.1. Run the regression specified in Part 6 above. As in Part 5, clean up the regression estimates part of the output (bottom four rows and first four numeric columns). Notice the difference in adjusted R squared between Table 4 and 3. 7.2. A. Discuss the coefficient estimates: (1) what happened to the estimate for the effect of Fee and its standard errror (and thus P-value)? (2) Which of the other explanatory variables are playing a significant role here? Connect this with the correlation statistics (Table 2). What does that mean? (1-2 sentences) B. Summarize the conclusions of this regression with respect to the estimated effect
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Visits = [TYPE EQUATION HERE] Dryville characteristics: Income_DV: $31,500 Population_DV: 70,200 Intercept_DV: [ENTER CALC. HERE] Visits_DV = [ENTER CALC. HERE] Visits_DV(Fee = 0)= [ENTER CALC. HERE] ID_intercept_DV: [ENTER CALC. HERE] ID_slope: [ENTER CALC. HERE] Fee_DV = [ENTER CALC. HERE] Table 5. Inverse demand values Visits_DV Fee_DV ($) regression with respect to the estimated effect of Fee, including the direction of the estimated effect and whether it is statistically significant at the 5% level (1-2 sentences) 8. Write down the "fitted" or "estimated" regression equation using the estimates (numbers) for the coefficients (ok to write in #'s here instead of using cell referencing). 9. Write out the estimated demand curve equation for DV using the data provided here for Income and Pop. To do this, first calculate the intercept for DV (collapse into a single number the fitted value of all terms except for Fee)--> Use line above to then write the estimated demand curve for DV (ok to write in #'s) --> Specify the predicted number of Visits_DV when the Fee is $0--> 10. Use Part 9 to solve for and write out the estimated inverse demand (ID) curve equation for DV. That is, above you have visits as a function of an intercept and the fee--just flip that around to solve for fee as a function of a (new) intercept and visits. (See tip at right.) To do this first calculate the intercept--> And calculation the slope term on Visits_DV--> Use this to then write the estimated inverse demand (ID) equation for DV (ok to type #'s here instead of cell reference)--> 11. Plot the inverse demand curve. To do this, first create a table of Fee_DV values corresponding to various levels of Visits_DV (using Part 10).
0 [ENTER CALC. HERE] 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Figure 2. Inverse demand curve for Drysville [INSERT FIGURE HERE] TB: [ENTER CALC. HERE] [TYPE YOUR ANSWER HERE] (using Part 10). Now, plot the inverse demand curve using information from Table 5. Make the lower bound of both axes zero and include labels for the axes. 12. Calculate the annual total benefit (TB) or surplus of the pool for DV residents (assuming that the admissions fee is still zero) making sure to indicate the units of your answer. This is based on the analysis above, i.e., the observed demand behavior in the sample of towns with pools. 13. EXTRA CREDIT: A. List at least two caveats that might lead to a difference between your answer in Part 12 and the "true" value of benefits. (1-2 sentences each)
Income ($) Population Tips: 20,600 36,879 Use the Data Analysis tool in Excel for generating (1) desc 33,400 64,520 In the pop-up window for selecting inputs to your chosen " 39,700 104,123 A. Select the option for "Labels in first row" or "Labels" (de 32,600 103,073 B. For the "Output Range" specify the cell in the upper-left 24,900 58,386 38,000 116,592 26,700 49,945 20,800 79,789 26,300 98,234 35,600 71,762 38,900 40,178 21,700 22,928 37,900 39,031 35,100 44,685 35,700 67,882 22,900 69,625 38,600 98,408 20,500 93,429 39,300 98,077 25,800 104,068 23,800 117,940 34,000 59,757 29,600 88,305 33,800 84,102 Tips: In the Data Analysis tool in Excel for descriptive statistics,
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x-axis) Tip: To label (bars, axes, figure) using cell refere Tip: You could figure out how to insert Greek symbols--or simply copy and paste β from the prompt wh
d Fee
nd POP
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Tip: Tip: When writing the name for a variable that is specific to DV, use the suffix "_DV" at the end of the <--You'll use this in Part 12. Tip: Use the suffix "_DV" again here, as in Part 9, for referring to DV variables. Sometimes variables from a regression model that are not fitted values are calculated. However, we'll keep things sim
Tip: Recall the formula for the area of a triangle.
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criptive statistics; (2) a correlation matrix; and (3) regressions. "Analysis Tool" (e.g. regression, correlation, etc.): epending on the tool) and then when specifying the cells for the "Input Range" include both the label (e.g. F t corner of the blue-shaded output zone. This will instruct Excel to locate the output starting from that cell a select the "Summary statistics" option.
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ences (rather than re-typing labels): click on the label box-->click in formula bar and type "="-->click on cell here needed.
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Tip: "Input X Range" can include multiple columns.
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variable name (as seen here in column C), e.g., "Fee_DV" t statistically significant are dropped before the model is re-estimated and then mple--keep all the variables in the model as estimated originally above.
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Fee) and data for a given variable. This will result in the variable labels showing up in the output tables so you and extending down and to the right.
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l with desired text
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u don't have to figure out where labels go and add them manually.
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