Discussion 21

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Feb 20, 2024

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What is the source that analyzes the misleading statistical claim? Link: https://www.mediamatters.org/bret-baier/foxs-news-side-anchor-bret-baier-airs- misleading-graphs-about-crude-oil-and-natural-gas Reference: Martin, W. by R. (n.d.). Fox's "news side" anchor Bret Baier airs misleading graphs about crude oil and natural gas prices. Media Matters for America. Retrieved February 3, 2023, from https://www.mediamatters.org/bret-baier/foxs-news-side-anchor-bret-baier- airs-misleading-graphs-about-crude-oil-and-natural-gas What is the source or title of the original misleading claim? Fox News Special report with Bret Baier https://www.foxnews.com/shows/special-report Unfortunately to watch the full episode you must have a tv subscription but you can see the clip in the source that analyzes the clip at the bottom. What is the claim being made? Fox News aired false or misleading information and graphics, Special Report anchor Bret Baier episode from September 28 th 2021 displayed suspiciously truncated graphs plotting the change in prices of natural gas and crude oil. What is the statistical analysis proposed to support this claim? The graphs spanned from 2019 to 2021, a notably short snapshot in time. These graphs ignore the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which made commodity prices fall drastically in 2020. Fox News is trying to sensationalize dismal global prices amid a pandemic and erroneously blame these numbers on one nation’s president. Fox News Graphic:

Correct Depiction According to analyzing source: The crude oil graph cites Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) for oil prices, but a 10- or 25-year timespan would have painted a much more accurate view of crude oil price fluctuations. Truthfully, current prices of crude oil seem to be skyrocketing because the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed global trade and travel since 2020. And Baier was correct to point out that prices for natural gas have been increasing for three years, but it would have been more accurate to note that natural gas prices have reached a seven-year high, showing that this increasing trend is not new. Fox News Graphic:

Correct Depiction According to analyzing source: Which category does this issue fall under? Why? Faulty/misleading data visualization is what is happening in this example with the Fox News graph. Bret Baier truncates the x axis on the graph making it seem like they have increased drastically in only the past couple of years. By only showing years ranging from 2019-2021 it doesn’t show the fact that prices have spiked much higher in previous years. As discussed in the article, Misleading Statistics Examples – Discover The Potential For Misuse of Statistics & Data In The Digital Age, by Bernardita Calzon this is a clear example of misleading statistics examples in the news.

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By only analyzing an action that is happening in such a narrow range he can statically control the narrative that the viewer sees in his graphical depiction of changing gas prices. Even though these charts are accurate in some way they are still misleading by not having all the relevant data in the charts. By only showing a portion of the years in which gas and oil prices were high it is a faulty visualization. What would be a better analysis to evaluate the situation? If I was Bret Baier I would have educated the viewer on what was the highest crude oil and natural gas prices that have been before and then compared them to their current state. I would have shown charts that were longer than a couple of years because it would show more of what trends were happening previously and give the viewer an understanding of what currently is going on. The prices increasing between 2019-2021 were because of COVID 19 and if he would have referenced previous years he would have seen 2008 recession trends as well. If he would have gone back ten years from 2019 it would have shown that prices were near 14$ for natural gas, which is more than double the 6$ in 2021. Same goes for the oil prices, around 2008 prices were 140$ a barrel rather than 80$. Commodity prices falling during the pandemic is pretty similar to that of the recession so I would have educated the viewer on those aspects as well as tied them into the chart.

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