CH 4 EXAMPLES_ UPDATE_ 2024

xlsx

School

Temple University *

*We aren’t endorsed by this school

Course

5001

Subject

Economics

Date

Feb 20, 2024

Type

xlsx

Pages

9

Uploaded by CountTiger1652

Report
FORECASTING excel: For Trend and Regression Questions: Models: = INTERCEPT(knownYs, knownXs) Naïve = SLOPE(knownYs, knownXs) Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing a (alpha) F(t+1) =alpha*At + (1-a)*Ft Trend y = a + b(x) - x equals time Regression Analysis y = a + b(x) - x equals something other than y = a + b(x1)…b(x2)…b(x3) Error Analysis MAD (mean absolute deviation) difference between forecast & actual MSE (mean squared error) MAD^2 MAPE (mean absolute percent error) MAD/Actual coefficient correlation r how strong is the relationship between x and y coefficient of determination r^2 how much can be determined from the regression line
n time excel: =correl(knownYs, knownXs) e r^2
Forecasting MAD Actual Demand At 3 mo. Moving Average Forecast 4.53 Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Larry Armstrong Supply Co. over the past 13 months are shown below: Month Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sales (in thousands) 11 14 16 10 15 17 11 Month Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Sales (in thousands) 14 17 12 14 16 11 a) Using a moving average with 3 periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February. b) Using a weighted moving average with 3 periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for February. Use 3, 2, and 1 for the weights of the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. For example, if you were forecasting the demand for February, November would have a weight of 1, December would have a weight of 2, and January would have a weight of 3. c) Using MAD, determine which is the better forecast.
Your preview ends here
Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version
  • Access to all documents
  • Unlimited textbook solutions
  • 24/7 expert homework help
Forecasting MAD Actual Demand At 3 mo. Weighted Moving Average (1,2,3) Forecast 4.53 Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Larry Armstrong Supply Co. over the past 13 months are shown below: Month Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sales (in thousands) 11 14 16 10 15 17 11 Month Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Sales (in thousands) 14 17 12 14 16 11 a) Using a moving average with 3 periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February. b) Using a weighted moving average with 3 periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for February. Use 3, 2, and 1 for the weights of the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. For example, if you were forecasting the demand for February, November would have a weight of 1, December would have a weight of 2, and January would have a weight of 3. c) Using MAD, determine which is the better forecast.
ALPHA TIME DEMAND (At) FORECAST (Ft) MAD 4.54 Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) 17 21 19 23 18 16 20 18 22 20 15 22 a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use α = .2. b) What is the MAD for this model? Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors
Exponential Smoothing Formula: F(t+1) =alpha*At + (1-a)*Ft
Your preview ends here
Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version
  • Access to all documents
  • Unlimited textbook solutions
  • 24/7 expert homework help
y = a + b(x) excel - trend line: Time MAD x y intercept slope Correlation Coefficient Coefficient Determination Overall MAD Actual Demand Dt Trend FORECAS T 4.55 Given the following data, use least squares regression to derive a trend equation. What is your estimate of the demand in period 7? In period 12? Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 7 9 5 11 10 13
y = a + b(x) X Variable Forecast MAD Intercept Slope Correlation Coefficient Coefficient Determination Overall MAD Actual Demand Y
Your preview ends here
Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version
  • Access to all documents
  • Unlimited textbook solutions
  • 24/7 expert homework help

Related Documents

? Chapter 1 & Lecture Set 1_ Check Your Understanding_ GLG 110_ Dangerous World (2024 Spring - A).pd
EDUC643_Federal Policy Review_Pociask.docx
Ch 3 Warm-up.docx
Homework #1 APEC 5020.docx
Wk 6 discussion.docx
MFE1-Midterm1-FA21 (1).pdf
Chap 1 Homework (Empty)-1.xlsx
Suhagi_Patel_Chap 1 Homework.xlsx
MAT-20014.docx
HW chp 20Questions.docx
Econ 113 Study questions_conceptual.docx
Assignment 2 BUAN 6312.docx
Recommended textbooks for you
Text book image
Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies an...
Economics
ISBN:9781305506381
Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Text book image
MACROECONOMICS FOR TODAY
Economics
ISBN:9781337613057
Author:Tucker
Publisher:CENGAGE L
Text book image
Micro Economics For Today
Economics
ISBN:9781337613064
Author:Tucker, Irvin B.
Publisher:Cengage,
Text book image
Economics For Today
Economics
ISBN:9781337613040
Author:Tucker
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Text book image
Survey Of Economics
Economics
ISBN:9781337111522
Author:Tucker, Irvin B.
Publisher:Cengage,
SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS
Recommended textbooks for you
Text book image
Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies an...
Economics
ISBN:9781305506381
Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Text book image
MACROECONOMICS FOR TODAY
Economics
ISBN:9781337613057
Author:Tucker
Publisher:CENGAGE L
Text book image
Micro Economics For Today
Economics
ISBN:9781337613064
Author:Tucker, Irvin B.
Publisher:Cengage,
Text book image
Economics For Today
Economics
ISBN:9781337613040
Author:Tucker
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Text book image
Survey Of Economics
Economics
ISBN:9781337111522
Author:Tucker, Irvin B.
Publisher:Cengage,
SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS