Understanding Green Finance: Economics & Sustainability Insights

ECON 4999X Green Finance and Sustainability Chapter 0 (Extended) DEYU RAO D Y R A O @ U S T. H K D E Y U R A O . G I T H U B . I O D E P T. O F E C O N O M I C S , H K U S T P L E A S E D O N O T C I R C U L A T E T H E S E S L I D E S W I T H O U T M Y P E R M I S S I O N . U P L O A D I N G M A T E R I A L S F R O M T H I S C O U R S E T O W E B S I T E S T H A T S E L L S U C H C O N T E N T I S C O N S I D E R E D M I S C O N D U C T A N D M A Y A L S O P U T Y O U A T R I S K F O R V I O L A T I N G C O P Y R I G H T P O L I C I E S .

A short intro of the course  How does economics/finance come in?  Money issues  Means to an end/tools to develop a pathway  What economic questions do you find (in my stories)?  Where economics/finance could have intervened to help?

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Lecture Schedules  Why should we care / how can we help  As a human being?  As an economist?  As a social-planner?  As a government official? Or official of inter-gov organization?  As a regulator?  As an investor?  tax, saving, pension also counts  As manager of a firm?

Lecture Schedules  Why should we care  As a human being?  As an economist?  As a social-planner?  As an investor?  As manager of a firm?  A realist approach, rather than  Environmental/climate doomism  Environmental fundamentalism  De-growth  Environmental militants

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Lecture Schedules  Why should we care  As a human being?  As an economist?  As a social-planner?  As an investor?  As manager of a firm?  A realist approach, rather than  Environmental/climate doomism  Environmental fundamentalism  De-growth  Environmental militants

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Lecture Schedules  Module 1. Principles of environmental economics (5 lectures).  Environmental challenges and their implications for the economy  Market efficiency and regulatory tools

Lecture Schedules  Module 2. Strategies for a greener economy and a sustainable business (5 lectures).  Principles of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable business practices  Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing and disclosure  Negative screening, green classification, and greenwashing  Behavioural biases and their potential role in ESG investing

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Lecture Schedules  Module 2. Strategies for a greener economy and a sustainable business (5 lectures).  Principles of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable business practices  Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing and disclosure  Negative screening, green classification, and greenwashing  Behavioural biases and their potential role in ESG investing

Lecture Schedules  Module 3. Fundamentals of green finance (5 lectures).  Overview of green finance market: participants, policies, and regulations.  Green financial instruments: green bonds and green loans.  Green investments from the public sector: sustainable development goals (SDGs) and green financing

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Lecture Schedules  Module 4. Green asset pricing (4 lectures).  Emission trading  Environmental factors in asset pricing: real estate and market portfolio Pricing Poseidon

Lecture Schedules  Module 5. Macroeconomics of climate change (2 lectures).  Growth  Structural transformation  Migration

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Lecture Schedules  Module 5. Macroeconomics of climate change (2 lectures).  Growth  Structural transformation  Migration

Lecture Schedules  Module 5. Macroeconomics of climate change (2 lectures).  Growth  Structural transformation  Migration  Climate justice  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bho6xY-jSuE

Lecture Schedules  Module 5. Macroeconomics of climate change (2 lectures).  Growth  Structural transformation  Migration  Climate justice  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bho6xY-jSuE “Your slogan is ‘We are worried about our future’ “What future? “What future do children in Africa, South Asia, Latin America have? “They don’t have a future… they don’t even have a present. “ You’ve got to be worried about now .

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Other in-class activities.  Guest lecture (1 lecture). During our lectures, we will invite one or two speakers (tentatively, from Hong Kong Green Finance Association) to share his/her industry insights, complementing the academic and theoretical knowledge covered in our lectures. Location and time TBA.  Midterm (1 lecture). Time TBA.  Midterm Review (1 lecture, if time allows). Time TBA.  Group presentations (1-2 lectures). Time TBA, tentatively at the end of semester.

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Grading  Homework (20%): two problem sets.  Midterm (30%):  math/models  and conceptual questions  tentatively before spring break  Class participation (15%): in-class quizzes and surveys, graded on participation only  Group project (35%)

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Quiz  What topics interest you the most in the syllabus?  What is your motivation in joining the course?  Anything else would you like me to cover in the lectures in the future?

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Group project (35%)  Solo or group (2-4, will adjust based on number of enrolled students)  Presentation (~15 min, subject to change) at the end of semester  Report (4-6 pages)

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Group project (35%)  Potential topics  a trading pitch (on a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy) with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;  a report on the recent developments of a regional green finance market/instrument;  an evaluation of an environmental policy.  Data  Model *  Story

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Group project (35%)  Potential topics  a trading pitch (on a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy) with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;  a report on the recent developments of a regional green finance market/instrument;  an evaluation of an environmental policy.  Examples will be provided as reference  Grading of group project:  50% on report  50% presentation (25% peer review, 25% professor)

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Group project (35%)  Potential topics  a trading pitch (on a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy) with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;  a report on the recent developments of a regional green finance market/instrument;  an evaluation of an environmental policy.  Examples will be provided as reference  Grading of group project:  50% on report  50% presentation (25% peer review, 25% professor)  Also, if you have a good course-related story to tell/discuss (at any time), I will buy you lunch.

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A trading pitch  On a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;  Tell us what security you are pitching and a little bit about the underlying business / potential future cash flows  Tell us why you believe the security is a good buy or good short (give us your analysis).  Give us a target price for the next 6 months.  Leave time for questions.

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A trading pitch  On a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;

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A trading pitch  On a stock, a bond, or a trading strategy with a specific focus on their sustainability (”green”) aspects;  Tell us what security you are pitching and a little bit about the underlying business / potential future cash flows  Tell us why you believe the security is a good buy or good short (give us your analysis).  Give us a target price for the next 6 months.  Leave time for questions.

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Waste Management Alethia Chan, Gabby Lee, Kristen Wong, Matthew Kuo

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Agenda Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation

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Executive Summary We recommend Waste Management as a buy with a target price of $261.35 with an upside of 27% . Catalysts Company • North America’s leading provider for waste management environmental services • Provides services in collection, landfill, transfer, recycling, recovery, and other services • Own or operate 249 landfill sites • Current Share Price: $115.27 Implied Share Price EV/ Revenue $157.40 EV/ EBITDA $167.84 P/E $458.80 Implied Price $261.35 Upside 27% Increased Municipal Solid Waste Recycling and Sustainability COVID-19 Waste Disposal

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Waste Collection Industry Overview Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation Market Performance • Revenue: $51.7B • Expected Annual Growth Rate: (2020-2025) 1.5% Demand Drivers Recycling Facilities: recyclable materials can be sold at a higher price – 3.0% CAGR Corporate Waste Generation • Value of construction: -2.0% CAGR • Industrial production index: 0% CAGR Population Growth: waste generation primarily driven by increase in population size – 0.7% CAGR Price of Diesel: fuel used to power garbage trucks used for waste collection – -2.6% CAGR Competitive Landscape Waste Management (21.1%) Republic (16.9%) Waste Connections (7.5%) Other (54.5%) Key Trends Increasing Recycling: government legislation and consumer sentiment Rebounding Economic Growth: rising consumer spending and business activity Increasing Operating Costs: greater use of sustainable methods

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Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation North America’s leading provider of comprehensive waste management environment services. As of December 31, 2019, WM currently owns and operates 249 landfill sites and has 44,900 full-time employees Incorporate in Oklahoma Re-incorporate in Delaware Merger with Illinois based waste service company 1987 1995 1998 Acquired 32 businesses 2018 2019 Acquired Petro Waste and 18 businesses 41% 26% 28% 5% Customers Commercial Residential Industrial Other Operations Collection Landfill Transfer Recycling Resource Recovery Other Services Seasonal Trends Operating revenue is higher in summer months Industrial and residential waste increase in Q2 and Q3 Severe storms, climate extreme and other weather-related events can affect operating revenue 2019 Key Financial Results Revenue increased by 3.63% to $15,455m Operating expenses represented 61.4% of revenue at $9,495m Net income of $1,670m, or $3.91 per diluted share Free cash flow was $2,105m from $2,084 and was offset by increased capital expenditure Company Overview

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Catalyst #1: Increased Municipal Solid Waste A steady and ongoing increase in urbanization and general population size has and will continue to fuel WM’s performance as an industry leader in the waste management industry. $5,000 $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 $13,000 $15,000 $17,000 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Waste Management Revenue Comparison (in millions) WM RSG Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation Waste Generation • From 2010 to 2017, United States waste generation has risen 7%. • Americans generate about 258 million tons of MSW annually • Approximately 53% of waste is deposited in landfill Urbanization • Urbanization is a strong driver of increased waste generation • In the US, number of people living in urban areas is expected to increase to 88.2% in 2040.

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Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation Catalyst #2: Push for Recycling and Sustainability WM’s dedication to environmental sustainability is woven throughout its core business, with a strong commitment to renewable energy, recycling, modern landfills, and more. Recycled Goods Generation The US recycling market is estimated at $6.7 billion Consumer Interest 64% of citizens believe that the environment is a top priority Growing E-Commerce Trends In 2017, 66% of recyclable waste was paper and cardboard. WM Sustainability Initiatives • For every 1,000 miles driven, WM has reduced its GHG emissions by 32% and total emissions by 36% for its supporting fleet • WM has invested more than $100 million in recycling infrastructure in both 2018 and 2019 • WM has engineered their landfills to harness their gas emissions and use them for renewable energy that powers their trucks

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Catalyst #3: COVID-19 Waste Disposal Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation The pandemic has brought to light the importance of good hygiene, especially emphasizing the clean disposal of waste, and WM is at the forefront of keeping communities safe by providing these essential services Serving Communities • WM has maintained essential waste collection services even during emergency and stay-at-home orders. Supporting Customers • An increase in the use of single-use products increases municipal solid waste, thus increasing WM’s revenues. Protecting Essential Workers • The proper disposal of contaminated medical waste has been imperative in protecting essential workers. Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-19 45 247 Wuhan, China Medical Waste Disposal per day (in tons)

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Risks Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation Risks Overview Government Regulations • Compliance with existing or increased future regulations can restrict or change core operations Commodity Price Dependence • Revenues will fluctuate based on commodity prices, particularly for recyclable materials Technological Advancement • Developments in technology could significantly disrupt in the waste management industry Mitigation Strategies • Designate groups to confer regarding key legislative and regulatory developments affecting WM’s business • Realize benefits from government incentives • Invest in R&D and acquire third-party companies that specialize in waste reduction, recycling, conversion, and other sustainability-oriented technology • Move materials internationally to diversify the price risk and ensure that the market remains in balance • Increase transparency and cost sharing in contracts Probability Severity

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Comparable Companies Analysis & Valuation Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation Casella Waste Systems Clean Harbors Waste Connections Republic Services Advanced Disposal Services Market Cap ($M) 2,961.00 3312.00 27,380.00 29,753.00 2,746.00 EV/EBITDA 21.10 6.70 18.70 13.40 11.30 EB/Revenue 4.70 1.40 5.80 3.80 2.80 P/E 86.50 32.90 133.00 28.30 N/A 25th/Median/75th Percentile EV/EBITDA EV/Rev P/E 25th Percentile 11.3 2.1 29.45 Median 13.4 3.8 59.7 75th Percentile 19.9 5.25 121.375 Implied Enterprise Value EV/EBITDA EV/Rev 75th Percentile $83,699.40 $79,290.75 Waste Management Market Cap ($M) 48,697.00 EBITDA ($M) 4,206.00 Revenue ($M) 15,103.00 EPS ($) 3.78 Stock Price ($) 115.27

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Implied Share Price Implied Stock Price EV/EBITDA EV/Rev P/E Stock Price $ 167.84 $ 157.40 $ 458.80 Implied Price $ 261.35 Upside 27% Industry Overview Company Overview Catalysts Risks Valuation

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Questions?

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics  Prices are more volatile after hurricane landfall, if the firm has more establishment in the hurricane-hit region

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics  Prices are more volatile after hurricane landfall, if the firm has more establishment in the hurricane-hit region

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics  The higher the implied volatility of an option, all else equal, the higher the option premium, reflecting increasing costs to hedging.  If, hypothetically, investors were to hedge 100 percent of the equity of exposed firms  45 to 85 billion USD  =15% of the $583 billion in total hurricane damages (est. by NOAA)

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics  Volatility risk premia (VRP): difference between option-implied volatility and subsequent realized volatility  Investors underreact to the volatility caused by a hurricane

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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics  Volatility risk premia (VRP): difference between option-implied volatility and subsequent realized volatility  Investors underreact to the volatility caused by a hurricane

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How macro shocks and de-carbon policies affect price of steel in China 3,500.00 3,700.00 3,900.00 4,100.00 4,300.00 4,500.00 4,700.00 4,900.00 5,100.00 5,300.00 5,500.00 2022-02-23 2022-04-23 2022-05-23 2022-06-23 2022-07-23 2022-08-23 2022-09-23 2022-10-23 2022-11-23 2022-12-23 Beginning of 2022, Limiting production/supply near Beijing by 30%

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3,500.00 3,700.00 3,900.00 4,100.00 4,300.00 4,500.00 4,700.00 4,900.00 5,100.00 5,300.00 5,500.00 2022-02-23 2022-03-23 2022-04-23 2022-10-23 2022-11-23 2022-12-23 Shanghai lockdown Crisis in real-estate market - demand drops Fed rise rates How macro shocks and de-carbon policies affect price of steel in China

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3,500.00 3,700.00 3,900.00 4,100.00 4,300.00 4,500.00 4,700.00 4,900.00 5,100.00 5,300.00 5,500.00 2022-02-23 2022-03-23 2022-04-23 2022-05-23 2022-06-23 2022-07-23 2022-08-23 2022-09-23 2022-10-23 China reopens Real estate stimulated Fed slows rate raises Input price rise How macro shocks and de-carbon policies affect price of steel in China

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How pollution monitoring affect land price

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How pollution monitoring affect land price

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How pollution monitoring affect land price

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High-speed Rail and Traveler’s Pollution Exposure

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High-speed Rail and Traveler’s Pollution Exposure

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High-speed Rail and Traveler’s Pollution Exposure

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High-speed Rail and Traveler’s Pollution Exposure

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High-speed Rail and Traveler’s Pollution Exposure

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Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs) On successful completion of the course, students will be able to:  Understand the key concepts, principles, and models of environmental economics (SILO #4);  Understand the principles of sustainable business practices and the fundamentals of green finance (SILO #4);  Understand the professional and ethical responsibility regarding sustainability (SILO #8);  Collaborate and communicate effectively in oral and written English on issues regarding sustainability (SILO #2);

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Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs) Hopefully, you can also  Aanalyse and identify risks and opportunities in business practices, market strategies, or trade strategies associated with sustainability and green finance (SILO #4);  Analyse the consequence of an environmental challenge or an environmental policy change and provide policy suggestions to governments and international organizations (SILO #4);  Develop an academic or career interest in green finance and sustainability.

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Academic Honesty and Integrity  Honesty and integrity is a central value in HKUST. Please be aware of the importance and maintain a high standard of honesty in the problem sets and examinations in this course.  Please familiarize yourself to the university rules and the HKUST academic honor code. The code will be strictly enforced, and any violation cases will be reported to the university. For details on academic integrity, please refer to https://registry.hkust. edu.hk/resource-library/academic-integrity.

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Auditing  Not recommended as the exercises are a crucial part of the course  Send me an email first

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Office Hour  See syllabus

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Other Announcements  Through Canvas

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GF_Lecture_2_final

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