Thoughts on CROX_ Post Earnings Sentiment, Bull_Bear Debate (2)
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C O M PA N Y N O T E
A u g u s t 3 , 2 0 2 3
Crocs, Inc. (CROX)
Overweight Thoughts on CROX: Post Earnings Sentiment, Bull/Bear Debate
PRICE: US$104.30
TARGET: US$150.00
~10.5x our FY24E EPS
Abbie Zvejnieks
Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.
212 284-9444, abbie.zvejnieks@psc.com
Changes
Previous
Current
Rating
—
Overweight
Price Tgt
—
US$150.00
FY23E Rev (mil)
—
US$4,038.4
FY24E Rev (mil)
—
US$4,497.1
FY23E EPS
—
US$12.23
FY24E EPS
—
US$14.04
52-Week High / Low
US$151.32 / US$65.17
Shares Out (mil)
62.6
Market Cap. (mil)
US$6,532.2
Avg Daily Vol (000)
1,893
Book Value/Share
US$0.24
Price/Book
43,458%
Net Cash Per Share
US$3.62
Debt to Total Capital
98.0%
Div Yield
0.00%
Fiscal Year End
Dec
Price Performance - 1 Year
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
160
140
120
100
80
60
USD
Source: Bloomberg
YEAR
2022A
2023E
2024E
REVENUE (US$ m)
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
FY
FY RM
660.1
964.6
985.1
945.2
3,555.0
1.8x
884.2A
1,072.4A
1,033.0
1,048.9
4,038.4
1.6x
973.8
1,204.2
1,162.5
1,156.5
4,497.1
1.5x
EARNINGS PER SHARE (US$)
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
FY
FY P/E
2.05
3.24
2.97
2.65
10.92
9.6x
2.61A
3.59A
3.11
2.92
12.23
8.5x
2.99
4.17
3.59
3.29
14.04
7.4x
CONCLUSION
Currently the most highly debated stock in our coverage, we are highlighting the
reasons for our continued positive outlook on CROX as well as the key debates.
We believe the softer Hey Dude outlook (as a reminder only ~20% of EBIT in 2Q)
overshadowed positive developments during the quarter including strong Crocs brand
momentum in the US. Our thesis is underpinned by +DD earnings growth and compelling
valuation. We are hosting an interactive virtual bull/bear debate on CROX on Monday,
August 7th, please contact your PSC salesperson if you are interested in participating.
•
Sentiment post-earnings:
After a significant move (-15%) post the 2Q print, CROX has
recovered slightly, and inbounds on both sides of the trade have materially increased.
Bulls are encouraged by strong Crocs brand momentum, solid operating margin,
improving inventory levels, and repayment of debt which has allowed for the resumption
of share repurchases. Bulls believe valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals
with +DD earnings growth ahead. The bear case is now centered around slower Hey
Dude demand trends, questions on the sustainability of Crocs brand growth, less appetite
for relying on international to power growth, and the possibility of operating margin
deleverage if topline growth does not meet expectations. We think investors will gauge
underlying demand by focusing on DTC trends for both brands, which have been strong
in the 1H.
•
Our thesis post-earnings:
Consistent with our 2Q recap
, we think the Hey Dude guide
down overshadowed many positive developments in the quarter. Most notably, the Crocs
brand grew 12% in North America, and growth is expected to continue in the 2H despite
the very difficult US wholesale environment (see page 4). Our Overweight thesis is
supported by continued revenue growth at Crocs, better results at Hey Dude next year
as wholesale normalizes, industry leading 26%+ operating margin with opportunity for
Hey Dude gross margin expansion, decreasing leverage, and the resumption of share
buybacks which all together should support +DD EPS growth in the medium-term. At
7.4x our 2024 EPS estimate, we think valuation is compelling. We are adjusting our Hey
Dude vs Crocs growth estimates slightly for 3Q and 4Q, although no changes have been
made to our FY estimates. We note that Hey Dude 4Q wholesale results should improve
vs. 3Q in our view due to the timing of international distributor shipments and reorders
as on hand inventory levels get low at retail partners.
•
Continued on page 2.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF PT & RECOMMENDATION
Consumer spending, inflation, inventory risk, fashion shifts, FX, China, interest rates.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Crocs, Inc. is a manufacturer of casual resin-based footwear and accessories.
Page 1 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
Piper Sandler does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only
a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information,
including an attestation under Regulation Analyst Certification, found on pages 7 - 8 of this report or at the following site:
http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures
.
C O M PA N Y N O T E
A u g u s t 3 , 2 0 2 3
Key Points Continued
Can the stock still work with slower topline growth?
Maybe not. We think CROX has levers
to pull on expenses which can allow the company to maintain a 26% operating margin even
in a more challenging demand scenario (see page 5 for our sensitivity analysis). That being
said, we think this is still a momentum driven stock, and a significant deterioration in the growth
outlook would likely be received negatively despite the company's likely continued EPS growth.
Currently, we believe demand trends remain solid for Crocs and should improve for Hey Dude
as wholesale normalizes, supporting our OW thesis.
Page 2 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
PIPER SANDLER CROX: Bull/Bear Case Today
Bull
Bear
Current valuation is disconnected with fundamentals with shares trading 7.4x 24E P/E vs. 15%+ EPS growth for the future. Crocs was “a $1B brand for 10 years”, why is it now approaching a $3B brand? Bearish investors think growth for the Crocs brand is not sustainable especially in North America. It can be difficult to forecast international growth expectations.
Strong management team with two highly profitable brands. Crocs is an increasingly international story with digital, sandals, & Jibbitz as growth drivers. There is a significant opportunity for the Crocs brand in China, India, and SE Asia. International expansion at Hey Dude is also a LT opportunity.
Both Hey Dude and Crocs have “trend” or “fad” risk and rely heavily on a single SKU (Classic Clog for Crocs; Wendy/Wally for Hey Dude) which underpins concerns around sustainability of growth.
Current FY guidance, which contemplates best-in-class 27.5% operating margin, is attainable. Notably, due to strength at Crocs, CROX was able to raise FY numbers after 2Q despite weaker wholesale results at Hey Dude. Importantly, management expects the Crocs brand to continue to grow in North America in the 2H.
The longer term growth rate for Hey Dude is unclear. Management seems to be continuing to invest behind growth (marketing, new distribution center). Aside from lapping tough compares in the wholesale channel, is demand for Hey Dude fading?
CROX displayed strong inventory management in 2Q, and inventory turns should be back to ~4.0x by the end of the year. There is a near-term gross margin expansion opportunity at Hey Dude (~300 bps) driven by inventory efficiency and the expansion into a new DC.
If topline growth slows, 1) do you see significant margin deleverage? And 2) will investor interest fade despite compelling valuation?
CROX has now decreased leverage to 1.8x by paying down $850M in debt since the acquisition of Hey Dude. In July, CROX resumed share buybacks. With strong FCF, continued debt paydown will reduce interest expense while share buybacks will also provide a benefit to EPS.
$2B of debt remains on the balance sheet.
Page 3 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
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PIPER SANDLER US Wholesale is Challenging and Not Getting Much Better in 3Q
Source: Company transcripts and filings.
Quarter
Ticker
US Wholesale Channel Commentary US Wholesale Results
2Q23
COLM
“…in terms of the change in the outlook, the lion’s share of the change is due to the softness we’ve seen in the US business, and that essentially across our US wholesale business, which is roughly half of the overall change in our outlook, and then to a slightly lesser degree, US e-commerce, and then to an even lesser extent, Korea.” Down HSD%
2Q23
CROX
"Our US wholesale business is probably a little stronger than we thought it was going to be, so we feel really good about that."
“… I would say Crocs, our US wholesale, it’s the newness, it’s both clogs, it’s both sandals that is performing well.”
“In 2022, we began to open strategic US wholesale accounts (HEYDUDE) and eliminate non-strategic accounts. This will result in challenging wholesale comparables in 2023. However, 2-year brand growth remains strong.”
Crocs +5.5%, HEYDUDE (8.5%)
1Q24
DECK
“As anticipated, we had some offsets to the growth in the quarter due to timing dynamics in UGG US wholesale, with accounts choosing to receive product spread later into the year, as opposed to a front-loaded preference we saw in the last couple of years.”
“…wholesale is a bit of an uncertain entity right now with inventory in the channel. There’s a lot of estimates, there’s going to be a promotional back half of the year. So – the way we’re looking at this is we’re trying to focus on the total consumer opportunity regardless of channel and have the inventory available for our DTC business, if wholesale continues to be a little bit more challenging.”
(12%) at UGG globally; Did not specify the US number
2Q23
SHOO
“As expected, we faced the challenging operating environment for the second quarter, in light of the difficult market conditions, in particular the conscious approach to orders by many of our wholesale customers in the United States, we were pleased to deliver earnings results in line with expectations for the quarter and while we’re never satisfied with financial performance that fall short of what we achieved in the prior year."
“As we go into the back half, I want to be clear, we’re not really assuming any significant improvement in the overall approach from wholesale customers, we still assume they are cautious. We haven’t built in a big chase business in Q4, for instance, but really what you’re seeing here is that we’re expecting improvement compared to the first half just because of the easing comparisons…”
(20.8%) globally; Did not specify the US number
2Q23
SKX
“…last quarter, we expected this to be the toughest quarter for us from a domestic Wholesale perspective. It was actually less challenging than we had thought. …due in part to a shift in the timing of orders benefitting the second quarter.”
“The domestic Wholesale decrease was due to inventory-related issues, impacting many of our partners. In addition, it is worth noting that we faced a difficult comparison to our particularly strong quarter last year where we grew 30%.”
(25%)
1Q24
VFC
“Most of the issues that we saw in our reported results certainly reside in the wholesale line, and that’s kind of what we expected. I think we kind of talked about that in May. It is certainly an issue that’s predominantly in the US, and in the Americas, to some degree in Europe.”
“Revenue was down 8%, in line with guidance, as wholesale particularly pressured the top line in the US.”
“Our wholesale business particularly in the US remains challenging as our key partners maintain a more cautious stand on forward orders… Through the balance of the year, our order books have evolved a little more muted than previously anticipated in both the US and Europe and reflect the continued cautious posture by many of our partners.”
“All of our brands are having some impact from what’s happening in the wholesale channel, particularly in the US as wholesalers are resetting inventories, and that’s been underway and in many cases making good progress, in other cases taking a bit longer.”
“… we still believe that’s (open to buy dollars and more risk appetite within the US wholesale channel) going to happen as we get into the back half of this fiscal year for us. And I’ve got to believe that things should start to stabilize in the marketplace as we turn the corner into spring/summer next year… the order of magnitude is… a little hard right now given where wholesale is.”
(40%) decline in Vans wholesale in the Americas (not just US)
Page 4 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
PIPER SANDLER CROX 2024E EPS Sensitivity Analysis
Source: Piper Sandler estimates.
Our conservative sensitivity analysis below accounts for a range of Crocs brand revenue growth scenarios for 2024 sensitized based on fixed expense assumptions. Here, we assume Hey Dude growth of only 5% y/y, much lower than our 12.8% estimate in our model, in order to be conservative. We set gross margin at 56.0%, flat y/y. We assume fixed expenses grow 8% y/y and variable expense growth outpaces sales growth by 4 points. Importantly, we think this highlights CROX’s ability to maintain a 26%+ operating margin, and valuation is compelling even in a more difficult topline scenario.
$13.71
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
25%
$12.23
$12.50
$12.77
$13.04
$13.31
$13.58
$13.85
35%
$12.19
$12.49
$12.78
$13.07
$13.36
$13.65
$13.95
45%
$12.15
$12.47
$12.78
$13.10
$13.41
$13.72
$14.04
55%
$12.11
$12.45
$12.79
$13.12
$13.46
$13.80
$14.13
65%
$12.07
$12.43
$12.79
$13.15
$13.51
$13.87
$14.22
$0.27
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
25%
26.2%
26.3%
26.4%
26.6%
26.7%
26.8%
26.9%
35%
26.1%
26.3%
26.4%
26.6%
26.7%
26.9%
27.0%
45%
26.0%
26.2%
26.5%
26.6%
26.8%
27.0%
27.2%
55%
26.0%
26.2%
26.5%
26.7%
26.9%
27.1%
27.4%
65%
25.9%
26.2%
26.5%
26.7%
27.0%
27.3%
27.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
25%
8.5x
8.3x
8.2x
8.0x
7.8x
7.7x
7.5x
35%
8.6x
8.4x
8.2x
8.0x
7.8x
7.6x
7.5x
45%
8.6x
8.4x
8.2x
8.0x
7.8x
7.6x
7.4x
55%
8.6x
8.4x
8.2x
7.9x
7.7x
7.6x
7.4x
65%
8.6x
8.4x
8.2x
7.9x
7.7x
7.5x
7.3x
2024E P/E Sensitivity
% of SG&A That is Fixed
2024E Crocs Brand Revenue Growth
2024E Crocs Brand Revenue Growth
% of SG&A That is Fixed
2024E EPS Sensitivity
2024E Operating Margin Sensitivity
% of SG&A That is Fixed
2024E Crocs Brand Revenue Growth
Page 5 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
Crocs, Inc.
Abbie Zvejnieks, Sr. Research Analyst; Tel: 212-284-9444
Income Statement
(Millions of Dollars, Except Per Share Data) FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
FYE
1QE
2QE
3QE
4QE
FYE
FYE
FYE
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
2022
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
2023
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
2024
2025
2026
Total Revenues
1,090.6 1,036.3 1,023.5 1,088.2 1,230.6 1,386.0 2,313.4 660.1 964.6 985.1 945.2 3,555.0 884.2 1,072.4 1,033.0 1,048.9 4,038.4 973.8 1,204.2 1,162.5 1,156.5 4,497.1 4,914.3 5,288.8 % Y/Y Change
-5.0%
-1.2%
6.3%
13.1%
12.6%
66.9%
43.5%
50.5%
57.4%
61.1%
53.7%
33.9%
11.2%
4.9%
11.0%
13.6%
10.1%
12.3%
12.5%
10.3%
11.4%
9.3%
7.6%
Cost of Sales
575.4 536.8 506.3 528.1 602.1 629.3 887.4 304.3 431.7 442.5 441.3 1619.9 404.5 449.5 447.5 474.1 1775.5 435.8 507.1 502.5 521.5 1966.9 2144.5 2305.3 % of Revenues
52.8%
51.8%
49.5%
48.5%
48.9%
45.4%
38.4%
46.1%
44.8%
44.9%
46.7%
45.6%
45.8%
41.9%
43.3%
45.2%
44.0%
44.8%
42.1%
43.2%
45.1%
43.7%
43.6%
43.6%
Y/Y change in bps
(96)
(233)
(94)
40 (352)
(705)
135 660 912 1,040 721 (35)
(284)
(160)
(150)
(160)
(100)
20 (10)
(10)
(23)
(10)
(5)
Gross Profit
515.2 499.5 517.2 560.2 628.5 756.6 1,426.1 355.8 532.9 542.6 503.8 1,935.1 479.7 622.9 585.5 574.9 2,262.9 538.0 697.0 660.1 635.0 2,530.2 2,769.8 2,983.5 Gross Margin
47.2%
48.2%
50.5%
51.5%
51.1%
54.6%
61.6%
53.9%
55.2%
55.1%
53.3%
54.4%
54.2%
58.1%
56.7%
54.8%
56.0%
55.2%
57.9%
56.8%
54.9%
56.3%
56.4%
56.4%
Y/Y change in bps
96 233 94 (40)
352 705 (135)
(660)
(912)
(1,040)
(721)
35 284 160 150 160 100 (20)
10 10 23 10 5 % Y/Y Change
-3.1%
3.5%
8.3%
12.2%
20.4%
88.5%
40.0%
34.5%
35.0%
34.8%
35.7%
34.8%
16.9%
7.9%
14.1%
16.9%
12.2%
11.9%
12.7%
10.5%
11.8%
9.5%
7.7%
Selling, general and administrative expenses
531.9 502.5 499.9 476.1 485.5 494.1 730.8 180.4 242.3 268.1 258.0 948.8 232.6 298.3 307.0 312.6 1150.5 270.8 342.2 352.4 353.9 1319.4 1436.9 1543.8 % of Revenues
48.8%
48.5%
48.8%
43.8%
39.5%
35.6%
31.6%
27.3%
25.1%
27.2%
27.3%
26.7%
26.3%
27.8%
29.7%
29.8%
28.5%
27.8%
28.4%
30.3%
30.6%
29.3%
29.2%
29.2%
Y/Y change in bps
(28)
35 (509)
(430)
(381)
(406)
(61)
(608)
(421)
(776)
(490)
(102)
270 250 250 180 150 60 60 80 85 (10)
(5)
% Y/Y Change
-5.5%
-0.5%
-4.8%
2.0%
1.8%
47.9%
40.3%
21.2%
36.3%
25.5%
29.8%
29.0%
23.1%
14.5%
21.1%
21.3%
16.4%
14.7%
14.8%
13.2%
14.7%
8.9%
7.4%
Income from operations
(16.7)
(2.9)
17.3 84.0 143.0 262.6 695.3 175.5 290.6 274.5 245.8 986.3 247.0 324.6 278.5 262.3 1,112.4 267.2 354.8 307.6 281.1 1,210.8 1,332.9 1,439.6 Operating Margin
-1.5%
-0.3%
1.7%
7.7%
11.6%
18.9%
30.1%
26.6%
30.1%
27.9%
26.0%
27.7%
27.9%
30.3%
27.0%
25.0%
27.5%
27.4%
29.5%
26.5%
24.3%
26.9%
27.1%
27.2%
Y/Y change in bps
125 198 603 390 732 1,111 (73)
(53)
(491)
(264)
(231)
136 14 (90)
(100)
(20)
(50)
(80)
(50)
(70)
(62)
20 10 % Y/Y Change
-82.4%
-690.5%
384.8%
70.2%
83.6%
164.8%
39.6%
47.9%
33.8%
46.3%
41.9%
40.8%
11.7%
1.5%
6.7%
12.8%
8.2%
9.3%
10.5%
7.2%
8.8%
10.1%
8.0%
Foreign currency income (loss), net
3.3 2.5 (0.6)
(1.3)
1.3 1.1 0.1 (0.5)
1.2 0.4 (4.3)
(3.2)
0.4 (0.6)
0.0 0.0 (0.1)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest expense (income)
(0.6)
0.1 (0.1)
5.3 8.0 2.7 20.9 19.3 32.9 34.1 49.0 135.2 42.5 42.5 37.0 36.0 158.0 35.0 33.0 31.9 30.0 129.9 110.0 102.0 Other expense (income), net
(0.6)
(1.5)
(0.3)
(0.6)
(0.0)
0.4 (1.8)
0.9 (0.4)
(0.0)
(0.2)
0.3 0.3 (0.7)
0.0 0.0 (0.4)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income before income taxes
(18.8)
(4.0)
18.3 80.6 133.7 258.3 676.0 155.7 257.0 240.0 201.3 854.0 203.9 283.3 241.5 226.3 955.0 232.2 321.8 275.7 251.1 1,080.9 1,222.9 1,337.6 % of Revenues
-1.7%
-0.4%
1.8%
7.4%
10.9%
18.6%
29.2%
23.6%
26.6%
24.4%
21.3%
24.0%
23.1%
26.4%
23.4%
21.6%
23.6%
23.8%
26.7%
23.7%
21.7%
24.0%
24.9%
25.3%
% Y/Y Change
-78.7%
-556.9%
341.7%
65.8%
93.3%
161.7%
26.0%
34.1%
20.1%
25.0%
26.3%
30.9%
10.3%
0.6%
12.4%
11.8%
13.9%
13.6%
14.2%
11.0%
13.2%
13.1%
9.4%
Provision For income taxes 11.8 9.3 7.9 14.7 15.6 37.8 146.2 30.8 55.6 54.6 35.7 176.8 40.5 58.7 48.3 45.3 192.7 46.4 64.4 55.1 50.2 216.2 244.6 267.5 Tax Rate
-63.1%
-232.3%
43.5%
18.3%
11.7%
14.6%
21.6%
19.8%
21.6%
22.8%
17.7%
20.7%
19.9%
20.7%
20.0%
20.0%
20.2%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
Net Income
(30.6)
(13.3)
10.3 65.9 118.1 220.5 529.8 124.9 201.3 185.4 165.6 677.2 163.4 224.7 193.2 181.0 762.3 185.8 257.5 220.6 200.9 864.7 978.3 1,070.1 Net Margin
-2.8%
-1.3%
1.0%
6.1%
9.6%
15.9%
22.9%
18.9%
20.9%
18.8%
17.5%
19.1%
18.5%
20.9%
18.7%
17.3%
18.9%
19.1%
21.4%
19.0%
17.4%
19.2%
19.9%
20.2%
% Y/Y Change
-56.6%
-177.7%
539.1%
79.1%
86.7%
140.3%
25.6%
39.5%
18.4%
28.0%
27.8%
30.8%
11.6%
4.2%
9.3%
12.6%
13.7%
14.6%
14.2%
11.0%
13.4%
13.1%
9.4%
Non-GAAP net income per share ($0.41)
($0.18)
$0.14 $0.86 $1.61 $3.22 $8.32 $2.05 $3.24 $2.97 $2.65 $10.92 $2.61 $3.59 $3.11 $2.92 $12.23 $2.99 $4.17 $3.59 $3.29 $14.04 $16.17 $18.05 EPS Growth Rate - Diluted
-56%
-179%
506%
87%
100%
158%
38%
45%
20%
23%
31%
27%
11%
4%
10%
12%
15%
16%
16%
12%
15%
15%
12%
Diluted Shares Outstanding (Diluted)
75.2
73.7
72.7
76.7
71.8
68.5
63.7
60.9
62.2
62.4
62.5
62.0
62.6
62.6
62.2
61.9
62.3
62.0
61.7
61.4
61.1
61.6
60.5
59.3
EBITDA
19.3 31.1 50.5 113.3 167.2 290.2 727.2 183.4 299.5 284.2 258.5 1,025.6 260.2 337.2 291.6 275.9 1,165.0 281.4 369.0 322.3 295.7 1,268.4 1,396.0 1,504.2 EBITDA Margin
1.8%
3.0%
4.9%
10.4%
13.6%
20.9%
31.4%
27.8%
31.0%
28.9%
27.4%
28.8%
29.4%
31.4%
28.2%
26.3%
28.8%
28.9%
30.6%
27.7%
25.6%
28.2%
28.4%
28.4%
Y/Y change in bps
123 193 548 318 735 1,050 (129)
(81)
(521)
(268)
(259)
165 40 (62)
(105)
(0)
(53)
(80)
(51)
(73)
(64)
20 4 % Y/Y Change
61.0%
62.2%
124.5%
47.6%
73.5%
150.6%
37.1%
46.7%
33.3%
47%
41.0%
41.9%
12.6%
2.6%
7%
13.6%
8.1%
9.4%
10.5%
7%
8.9%
10.1%
7.8%
Current disclosure information for this company is located at http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures August 2, 2023
Page 6 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
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C O M PA N Y N O T E
A u g u s t 3 , 2 0 2 3
IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES
Rating and Price Target History for: Crocs, Inc. (CROX) as of 08-02-2023
200
150
100
50
0
Q2
Q3
2021
Q1
Q2
Q3
2022
Q1
Q2
Q3
2023
Q1
Q2
Q3
07/30/20
OW:$45
09/11/20
OW:$46
09/28/20
OW:$48
10/13/20
OW:$53
10/27/20
OW:$67
12/09/20
OW:$71
01/11/21
OW:$90
02/23/21
OW:$104
04/27/21
OW:$140
07/13/21
OW:$143
07/22/21
OW:$185
09/14/21
OW:$212
10/21/21
OW:$215
01/12/22
OW:$246
05/05/22
OW:$120
07/25/22
OW:$90
11/03/22
OW:$95
12/16/22
OW:$118
01/12/23
OW:$145
02/16/23
OW:$165
07/27/23
OW:$150
Created by: BlueMatrix
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the fundamental Equity Research Note, the rating and the price
target. Each box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the
first Note written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services
Piper Sandler
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
BUY [OW]
588
57.93
155
26.36
HOLD [N]
383
37.73
53
13.84
SELL [UW]
44
4.33
2
4.55
Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently covered by fundamental equity research in each rating category from
which Piper Sandler and its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure
of which ratings most closely correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Sandler ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell,
but instead represent recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight
with sell. See Stock Rating definitions below.
Analyst Certification
The analyst Abbie Zvejnieks, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report, attests to the following:
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company and the subject security. In addition, no part of my
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Piper Sandler research analysts receive compensation that is based, in part, on overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues.
Time of dissemination: 3 August 2023 03:29EDT.
Page 7 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
C O M PA N Y N O T E
A u g u s t 3 , 2 0 2 3
Research Disclosures
Piper Sandler will buy and sell the securities of Crocs, Inc. on a principal basis.
Affiliate disclosures: Piper Sandler is the trade name and registered trademark under which the corporate and investment banking products and services
of Piper Sandler Companies and its subsidiaries Piper Sandler & Co. and Piper Sandler Ltd. are marketed. This report has been prepared by Piper Sandler
& Co. and/or its affiliate Piper Sandler Ltd. Piper Sandler & Co. is regulated by FINRA, NYSE and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission,
and its headquarters are located at 800 Nicollet Mall, Minneapolis, MN 55402. Piper Sandler Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority, and is located at 6th Floor, 2 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7AD. Disclosures in this section and in the Other Important Information section
referencing Piper Sandler include all affiliated entities unless otherwise specified.
Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Sandler fundamental research ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next
12 months. At times analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks.
Stock performance is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at
www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures. Stock ratings and/or stock coverage may be suspended from time to time in the event that there is no
active analyst opinion or analyst coverage, but the opinion or coverage is expected to resume. Research reports and ratings should not be relied
upon as individual investment advice. As always, an investor’s decision to buy or sell a security must depend on individual circumstances, including
existing holdings, time horizons and risk tolerance. Piper Sandler sales and trading personnel may provide written or oral commentary, trade ideas,
or other information about a particular stock to clients or internal trading desks reflecting different opinions than those expressed by the research
analyst. In addition, Piper Sandler offers technical research products that are based on different methodologies, may contradict the opinions contained
in fundamental research reports, and could impact the price of the subject security. Recommendations based on technical analysis are intended for the
professional trader, while fundamental opinions are typically suited for the longer-term institutional investor.
Overweight (OW):
Anticipated to outperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Neutral (N):
Anticipated to perform in line relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Underweight (UW):
Anticipated to underperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Other Important Information
The material regarding the subject company is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable; it is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does
not purport to be complete. This report is solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions.
Piper Sandler has not assessed the suitability of the subject company for any person. Because of individual client requirements, it is not, and it should
not be construed as, advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This report is not an offer or the solicitation of an offer
to sell or buy any security. Unless otherwise noted, the price of a security mentioned in this report is the most recently available closing market price.
Piper Sandler does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report. Piper Sandler policy
generally prohibits research analysts from sending draft research reports to subject companies; however, it should be presumed that the fundamental equity
analyst(s) who authored this report has had discussions with the subject company to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication, and has had assistance
from the company in conducting diligence, including visits to company sites and meetings with company management and other representatives. Notice to
customers: This material is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity if Piper Sandler is prohibited or restricted by any
legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to such person or entity. Customers in any of the jurisdictions where Piper Sandler and
its affiliates do business who wish to effect a transaction in the securities discussed in this report should contact their local Piper Sandler representative, or
as otherwise noted below. Canada: Piper Sandler & Co. is not registered as a dealer in Canada and relies on the "international dealer exemption" set forth
in National Instrument 31-103 – Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations of the Canadian Securities Administrators.
This research report has not been prepared in accordance with the disclosure requirements of Dealer Member Rule 3400 – Research Restrictions and
Disclosure Requirements of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. Europe: This material is for the use of intended recipients only
and only for distribution to professional and institutional investors, i.e., persons who are authorised persons or exempted persons within the meaning of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom, or persons who have been categorised by Piper Sandler Ltd. as professional clients under
the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. United States: This report is distributed in the United States by Piper Sandler & Co., member SIPC, FINRA and
NYSE, Inc., which accepts responsibility for its contents. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities
Act of 1933 and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons unless they have been so registered, or an exemption
from the registration requirements is available.This report is produced for the use of Piper Sandler customers and may not be reproduced, re-distributed
or passed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose without the prior consent of Piper Sandler & Co. Additional information is
available upon request. Copyright 2023 Piper Sandler. All rights reserved.
Page 8 of 8
Crocs, Inc.
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