Lab - Sunspot Prediction 2023

Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 1 Name: INTRODUCTION The Sun’s magnetic field switches polarity every 11 years or so. That is, the north magnetic pole becomes the south magnetic pole, and vice versa. Sunspots are cool, relatively dark spots on the Sun’s photosphere (visible surface). Sunspots are caused by irregularities in the Sun’s magnetic field. During a polarity switch, the Sun’s magnetic field lines become twisted and tangled, leading to a large number of sunspots. This event is known as solar maximum . Halfway in between polarity switches, the Sun’s magnetic field is relatively smooth, leading to little or no sunspot activity. This event is called solar minimum . Sunspots therefore go through a roughly 11-year cycle that is determined by the Sun’s polarity switches. Th is cycle is called the Sunspot Cycle. Question 1: Clearly and thoroughly define polarity switch in context of the Sun. Question 2: Clearly and thoroughly define sunspot . Question 3: Clearly and thoroughly define sunspot cycle . Question 4: Clearly and thoroughly define solar maximum and solar minimum . Question 5: The number of observed sunspots reached a minimum in December 2019. Approximately when would it be expected to reach a minimum again?

Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 2 COUNTING SUNSPOTS In a browser, navigate to NASA’s Earth Observatory sunspot page . The top left image shows the Sun near solar maximum (2000). The top right image shows the Sun near solar minimum (2009). Question 6: In the images shown, count the individual sunspots near solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. Note that there is some subjectivity here, so there is a range of possible right answers. How many do you see? Solar max: s max = Solar min: s min = Sunspot groups are clusters of sunspots. Every sunspot belongs to a group, even if it is a group of one. Here are two examples: Group of 1 sunspot Group of about 6 or 8 sunspots (Image credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory) Question 7: In the two sunspot images on the NASA Earth Observatory sunspot page, count the groups of sunspots near solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. Note that there is some subjectivity here, so there is a range of possible right answers. How many do you see? Solar max: g max = Solar min: g min =

Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 4 Cycle Year Avg. Sunspot Number in January 24 2009 3 2010 14 2011 46 2012 96 2013 87 2014 109 2015 89 2016 54 2017 28 2018 14 2019 6 25 2020 2 2021 10 2022 60 2023 113 Question 9: On the final page of this lab is a blank graph. Express the above data by drawing a bar graph there. Question 10: Look closely at your bar graph. Following the pattern in the data, estimate the sunspot number that would be expected in the years 2024 - 2026. This is called a projection . 2024: 2025: 2026: Question 11: Should your projected sunspot number for 2024 be greater or less than the sunspot number for 2019? In one or two complete sentences, explain why. Question 12: Express your projected data for 2024 - 2026 on the bar graph on the next page.

Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 5 Question 13: Conclusion. In a paragraph, explain what the sunspot cycle is and how it is observed. Use the space on the next page if necessary. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year Cycle 24 Cycle 25 Data Data Projection Avg. Sunspot number in January 250 200 100 50 150