HW_Turkey Earthquake

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Temple University *

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0836

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Astronomy

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Jan 9, 2024

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EES 0836 Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including: ● Where do earthquakes occur? ● Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? ● What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives ● Analyze past events to predict where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) ● Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a) Part 1: Predicting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to predict when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists. 1. What are some methods for predicting earthquakes? Not predicting – but understanding probability of the next quake. Some “prediction” methods would be foreshocks or ground deformation 2. Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking. Determining what part of the fault is most at risk from rupture – probability of the next quake

EES 0836 Part 2 : The data People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to predict the location of future events. Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively. Data Set 1: Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 -410 / -330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 -335 / -305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 -195 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 -305 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943 -130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot: Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase. ● Locate the approximate year on the Y axis. ● Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is located. ● Connect the dots for that event. ● 1967’s earthquake is completed for you. ● After plotting the data, answer the following questions.

EES 0836 Questions: 1. How often do earthquakes occur in the same location? Some overlap, but otherwise not much. 2. Can you predict where the next earthquake will occur? We can’t predict it, but we can say generally where the probability of the next quake is the highest. 3. Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you predict it will occur? Propagation of the fault is to the northwest, so we could anticipate the next quake in that area, with high probability around Izmit. 4. How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be earthquake ready? Just explain the hazard and the risk, and then educate them on how to be prepared.

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EES 0836 Part 3 : Oh, wait, there is one more event... You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2. Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1999 -460 / -280 Historical Account + Geo mapping Questions: 1. Did this event fit into your prediction from Part 2? Explain how. It sure did. It followed the trend to the northwest. 2. Using this new information, can you make a prediction as to where the next earthquake will occur? Probably to the northwest of Izmit, since it is propagating in that direction. 3. At which point did you think you had enough data to make this prediction? Explain your thinking. Probably. This is now 8 events that follow this trend. 4. If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the people living in Istanbul? Prepare and educate and warn them. 5. Explain how this pattern makes sense in terms of plate tectonics theory. This is a transform fault, so the motion here is lateral, and you would expect the movement to be along the fault—in this case, moving east to west.

HW_Turkey Earthquake

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