HW_Turkey Earthquake

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0836

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Astronomy

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Apr 3, 2024

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EES 0836 Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including: ● Where do earthquakes occur? ● Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? ● What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives ● Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) ● Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a) Part 1: Forecasting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists. 1. What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes? Ans: Some methods for forecasting include looking for precursors which occur before an earthquake happens. Some of these include a change in the magnetic field or by looking at the seismic gaps which would tell areas that had earthquakes occurred along the faults. One final method is by looking at the seismic waves that have occurred which can help identify when exactly the earthquake will occur.

EES 0836 2. Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking. Ans: Seismic gaps would be the most promising method. This will tell us where earthquakes have occurred in the past and would be the most accurate in helping to predict when and where they will happen again. Part 2 : The data People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the location of future events. Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively. Data Set 1: Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 -410 / -330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 -335 / -305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 -195 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 -305 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943 -130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot: Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase. ● Locate the approximate year on the Y axis. ● Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is located. ● Connect the dots for that event.

EES 0836 ● 1967’s earthquake is completed for you. ● After plotting the data, answer the following questions. Questions: 1. How often do earthquakes occur in the same location? Ans: Not very often 2. Can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? Ans: After the earthquake in 1967, the next one will occur in 10 years. 3. Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you forecast it will occur? Ans: There is no clear eveidence showing when and where an earthquake will occur, but I would guess possibly around Yalova, -500s/-410. 4. How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be earthquake ready?

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EES 0836 Ans: I would explain that they need to be alert and prepared, tie down any large/heavy objects, make sure your children are inside and safe, and to keep news channels and radios on to stay updated on anything that we may learn about the upcoming event.

EES 0836 Part 3 : Oh, wait, there is one more event... You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2. Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1999 -460 / -280 Historical Account + Geo mapping Questions: 1. Did this event fit into your forecast from Part 2? Explain how. Ans: This event kind of fit into my prediction, I had thought that it would go farther down to around -500 instead of -280. 2. Using this new information, can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? Ans: Since the events were random, I would guess that the distance from -460 could increase to around -500 3. At which point did you think you had enough data to make this forecast? Explain your thinking. Ans: The points in 1939, 1942, and 1943 were consistent with each other, meaning that the lines moved to the left, so the years were accurate. But this is not enough data to make these predictions since the number of years changed, as did the positions. 4. If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the people living in Istanbul? Ans: I would make sure that any buildings under construction are being built in the right locations, since the frequency of the buildings shaking should not match with the seismic waves, since this would cause damage to the area. People need to rely on the buildings to stay intact, and be safe inside, I would also be sure to call for evacuations if necessary. 5. Explain how this pattern makes sense in terms of plate tectonics theory. Ans: This pattern makes sense since the earth crust is colliding and starts to separate, which divides the two plates. In the graph we can see it starts to move to the left, so the positions are altering as the new earthquakes happen.

HW_Turkey Earthquake

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