HW_Turkey Earthquake
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Temple University *
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0836
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Astronomy
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Dec 6, 2023
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EES 0836
Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System
Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood
Introduction
You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to
investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist,
your goal is to address key questions, including:
●
Where do earthquakes occur?
●
Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event?
●
What should we be planning for next?
Learning Objectives
●
Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur.
(1, 2, 5, a, b, c)
●
Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes.
(1, 2, 5, a)
Part 1:
Forecasting earthquakes
We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our
ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists.
1.
What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes?
Some methods for predicting earthquakes include monitoring seismic activity, precursor events,
and mapping out the likelihood of earthquakes in certain areas. However given all these methods,
it is still awfully hard to predict earthquakes with 100% accuracy.
2.
Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future?
Explain your thinking.
I think monitoring seismic activity has the most promising future as I think our technology is only
getting better and with more sensitive tools, we could really develop that skillset. Although, I
EES 0836
think we should continue to develop all of our methods to have a well rounded approach to
forecasting earthquakes.
Part 2
: The data
People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events.
These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to
refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity,
we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the
location of future events.
Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help
us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us
visualize the information more effectively.
Data Set 1:
Date (years)
Position (km) parallel to fault
Data source/type
1967
-410 / -330
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1957
-335 / -305
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1951
-195 / -130
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1944
-305 / -130
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1943
-130 / 140
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1942
155 / 185
Historical Account + Geo mapping
1939
95 / 440
Historical Account + Geo mapping
How to Plot:
Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the
movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these
coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The
information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to
erase.
●
Locate the approximate year on the Y axis.
●
Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is
located.
●
Connect the dots for that event.
●
1967’s earthquake is completed for you.
●
After plotting the data, answer the following questions.
EES 0836
Questions:
1.
How often do earthquakes occur in the same location?
Earthquakes seem to cluster in similar areas over several years,
2.
Can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur?
yes
3.
Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you forecast it will
occur?
My prediction is that the next earthquake will occur in the East Anatolian area close to 450.
4.
How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be
earthquake ready?
I would send out an alert letting everyone know to prepare for the high likelihood of an
earthquake, if they can evacuate, that is best, but if not I would share with them a list of things to
do to prepare, like getting things off high shelves, and finding a hiding spot under a hard surface.
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EES 0836
Part 3
: Oh, wait, there is one more event...
You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look
at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2.
Date (years)
Position (km) parallel to fault
Data source/type
1999
-460 / -280
Historical Account + Geo mapping
Questions:
1.
Did this event fit into your forecast from Part 2? Explain how.
no, it is much farther west than my prediction
2.
Using this new information, can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur?
Somewhere around 300km
3.
At which point did you think you had enough data to make this forecast? Explain your thinking.
I don’t think I really have enough data to make an accurate prediction.
4.
If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the
people living in Istanbul?
I would provide information on the risk involved living there and if people choose to do so, I
would provide comprehensive preparation manuals.
5.
Explain how this pattern makes sense in terms of plate tectonics theory.
This specific pattern occurs along a fault line. This aligns with the plate tectonics theory which
states that the earth’s crust contains plates that move and create disasters.