Forecasting doc

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Arizona State University *

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600

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Accounting

Date

Apr 3, 2024

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docx

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5

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Food _produce- Forecast Combined- Oct-1 6 Jan -17 Apr -1 7 Jul-17 Oct -1 7 Jan -18 Apr -1 8 Jul-18 Oct-1 8 Jan -19 Apr-1 9 Jul-19 Oct-1 9 Jan- 20 Apr-2 0 Jul-20 Oct-2 0 Jan- 21 Apr -2 1 Jul-21 Oct -2 1 Jan- 22 $0.00 $5,000.00 $10,000.00 $15,000.00 $20,000.00 Forecast(Combined) Combined Forecast(Combined) Lower Confidence Bound(Combined) Upper Confidence Bound(Combined) Axis Title Combined Forecast Mobile- Oct-1 6 Jan -17 Apr -1 7 Jul-17 Oct-1 7 Jan -18 Apr -1 8 Jul-18 Oct -1 8 Jan- 19 Apr-1 9 Jul-19 Oct-1 9 Jan -20 Apr -2 0 Jul-20 Oct-2 0 Jan- 21 Apr-2 1 Jul-21 Oct -2 1 Jan -22 Apr-2 2 Jul-22 -$10,000.00 $0.00 $10,000.00 $20,000.00 Forecast(Mobile Market) Mobile Market Forecast(Mobile Market) Lower Confidence Bound(Mobile Market) Upper Confidence Bound(Mobile Market) Axis Title Mobile Market Forecast Fruit stand-
Oct-1 6 Jan -17 Apr-1 7 Jul-17 Oct -1 7 Jan -18 Apr-1 8 Jul-18 Oct -1 8 Jan -19 Apr-1 9 Jul-19 Oct -1 9 Jan -20 Apr -2 0 Jul-20 Oct -2 0 Jan -21 Apr -2 1 Jul-21 Oct-2 1 Jan- 22 $0.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $5,000.00 $6,000.00 $7,000.00 Forecast(Fruit Stand) Fruit Stand Forecast(Fruit Stand) Lower Confidence Bound(Fruit Stand) Upper Confidence Bound(Fruit Stand) Axis Title Fruit Stand Line Chart for fruit_produce- Oct-1 6 Dec -16 Feb-17 Apr-1 7 Jun-17 Aug -17 Oct -1 7 Dec -17 Feb-1 8 Apr-1 8 Jun-18 Aug -18 Oct-1 8 Dec -18 Feb-1 9 Apr -1 9 Jun- 19 Aug -19 Oct-1 9 Dec -19 Feb-20 $0.00 $2,000.00 $4,000.00 $6,000.00 $8,000.00 $10,000.00 $12,000.00 $14,000.00 Line Chart Combined Mobile Market Fruit Stand Date Value b. From the above graph we can see the value of fruit stand to be in average between 4000$ to 2000$, With small drop and no significant value increase. The
with the value of combined and mobile market to be increasing after every drop. Value for Mobile market has a significant growth throughout with least drop. Covid_cases- Bar_Chart for covid cases with all trend line- 4/1/ 2020 4/3/ 2020 4/5/20 20 4/7/20 20 4/9/20 20 4/11/2 020 4/13/2 020 4/15/2 020 4/17 /2020 4/19 /2020 4/21/2 020 4/23/2 020 4/25/2 020 4/27 /2020 4/29 /2020 5/1/ 2020 5/3/ 2020 5/5/ 2020 5/7/20 20 5/9/20 20 5/11 /2020 5/13/2 020 5/15/2 020 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 f(x) = 11.94 x + 492.19 R² = 0.26 New Cases New Cases Linear (New Cases) Moving average (New Cases) Date Date Line Fit Plot- 3/10/2020 3/30/2020 4/19/2020 5/9/2020 5/29/2020 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Date Line Fit Plot New Cases Predicted New Cases Date New Cases
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Moving Average 3 month Plot- 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 0 400 800 1200 1600 Moving Average 3 month Actual Forecast Data Point Value Moving Average 5 month Plot- 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Moving Average 5 month Actual Forecast Data Point Value Normal Probability plot-
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Normal Probability Plot Sample Percentile New Cases Forecasting for covid- 4/1/2020 4/4/2020 4/7/2020 4/10/2020 4/13/2020 4/16/ 2020 4/19/ 2020 4/22/2020 4/25/2020 4/28/ 2020 5/1/2020 5/4/2020 5/7/2020 5/10/ 2020 5/13/2020 5/16/ 2020 5/19/ 2020 5/22/ 2020 5/25/2020 5/28/2020 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 New Cases Linear (New Cases) Forecast(New Cases) Lower Confidence Bound(New Cases) Upper Confidence Bound(New Cases)