Understandable Statistics: Concepts And Methods
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781337517508
Author: Charles Henry Brase, Corrinne Pellillo Brase
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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In a study on speed control, it was found that the main reasons for regulations were to make traffic flow efficient and to minimize the risk of danger. An area that was focused on in the study was the distance required to completely stop a vehicle at various speeds. Use the following table to answer the questions.
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
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